Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[suresh]

^^ Slowly repeat after me. "It is slow burn".

[jayakris]

^^^ Haha, but isn't it another wildfire starting, and not really a burn at this point?

[jayakris]

Today's Govt release says 27.5M doses are with the states and 7.1M is in three-day pipeline. That is 34.6M total .... It is puzzling why we are not getting more vaccinations done. Looks like only about 4.3M today. I was hoping for 5 or 6M, as Friday and Saturday are our higher number days. Not so.

[Omkara]

Starting August people will be due of their second doses, including me. Maybe we can see a bump up then

[jayakris]

We had +39.5K today, from 1673K tests at 1.99%... The seven-day average moved up by +198 to 37,819... Nothing new. Maharashtra keeps reducing their testing a bit and the positivity stays at around 3.7, with the numbers reducing a bit. No indication of a new wave there. But Kerala most probably has a new wave going, and that is what is causing the India numbers to be flat and unsteady (up and down) lately.

The deaths were more than I expected, at 541. The peak numbers of deaths from the Northeast are coming now, adding an extra 50 to the total. Kerala death total that seemed to be going down, took an upswing in the last couple of days. Every stat looks bad in Kerala.

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ICMR Update: 452,939,545 total tests... Friday tests: 1,668,561... Lab count: 2784

[suresh]

If done properly, one can extract an extra dose of vaccine from a vial. Here is a survey of how states have done this. Here is chart of how various states have done this.

[suresh]

Starting August people will be due of their second doses, including me. Maybe we can see a bump up then

That is correct. Hope it doesn't get too difficult to get the second dose -- I remember getting the first dose was like winning a lottery.

[suresh]

Big States 24/4/2021 Saturday

KL - 18531 (from 156K tests which is decent by their standards, TPR of 11.9%)
AP - 2174
OR - 1864
TN - 1819
AS - 1595
MN - 1198

Total - 27181 (MH + KA to come)

I can't predict numbers without MH -- it all depends on how much they test. We need to go under 41283 for the seven day average to go down.

I predict that we will have 41-42K new cases today.

[jayakris]

KL - 18531 (from 156K tests which is decent by their standards, TPR of 11.9%)

But it was 150,108 last Saturday with 10.4K fewer AG tests and 5K more RT-PCR and others, and KER had got 2400 fewer cases at 16,148 then. It is a no-hope situation. My adjusted TPR for today was 18.7% ... It was 16.5% a week ago. So the TPR went up by 1.2 and the adjusted TPR went up by 2.2, and the cases went up 15%... Just horrible.

My only hope is that these tests are more focused in the high-TPR areas, and so maybe Kerala is doing a higher number of tests, effectively. We know that if you have a lot more AG tests being done, they can also work. They are okay if you freely do a whole lot more of them than you would do RT-PCR (for the same tested households). Repeated tests on somebody or other in a household, same person tested more frequently, etc. But, for that you basically need to be herding people (whoever you can find in the house or hut for instance, rather than select the more probably infected person etc). That is like done in UP/Bihar/Guj/MP where there isn't any big attempt at serious contact tracing or to see who is vulnerable in the household and all that. Kerala was doing such things rather carefully (because people themselves are a big part of the "self-initiated contact tracing" even in village panchayats).

If these added AG tests in Kerala are based on such loose group testing in the high-TPR panchayats, then there is chance that Kerala is basically doing the north indian operation with AG tests in those limited areas (about 100 to 200 panchayats out of 1000). If that is the case, what worked in UP/Bihar/Guj in the areas where they tested (even while they missed a lot of areas unlike Kerala) could work in Kerala too. If so, these rise in numbers should be followed by a drop that is faster than seen in Kerala before.

As of now, it is a clear third wave. We are up almost 50% from 12K four weeks ago. Is it going to blow up or fall? I suspect it will fall in the next couple of weeks. With vaccination and all that, and sero-prevalence over 50%, it probably can't blow up much. May go up for a week or two more and drop, I hope. Hopefully next week itself will be better.

But a serious concern is If there is if there is a new mutant that could go to other states and cause havoc. TN and KAR better be very careful about anybody who comes from Kerala.

[jayakris]

Looks like it is about 5.1M vaccinations today in India... We will finish the week at about 28.1M, a bit below last week's 28.9M but basically doing 4M per day. Not increasing though. I was hoping for 5M+ per day on average and 35M per week by now.

The morning release from the Govt said there are 29.8M doses with the states and 8.6M in the pipeline for a 38.5M total... That is a big number. We must do 30 to 35M next week!!

[ankit1407]

Lots of people will become eligible for second dose now, we started with 18+ on May 1 so now 84 window has crossed ..

[Atithee]

LOL. A new mode of Covid transmission:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/covid-could- ... 19195.html

[jayakris]

^^^ That may be why they said dogs could detect Covid... Maybe they can smell posterior effluvium?

And we had +40.3K from about 2083K tests and 1.93%... The 7-day average dropped by 143 to 37677, so there is still a slight dropping trend, despite Kerala whose daily average is rising by around 2000 every 7 days... Deaths were 541 again though, thanks to 224 from MAH (about 50 to 75 of which must be reconciliations, though they didn't bother to say it).

We had 5.27M vaccinations on Saturday, and finished the week at 28.3M, a bit less than the 28.9M last week. Need to see it go up.

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ICMR Update: 456,289,567 total tests... Saturday tests: 1,718,756... Lab count: 2788

[suresh]

Big States 25/7/2021 Sunday

KL - 17466 (from 142K tests, TPR = 12.3%)
MH - 6843
AP - 2252
OR - 1833
TN - 1808
MN - 1207
AS - 1054

Total - 32463 (KA to come)

We need to go under 38330 today for the seven day average to go down. I predict that we will have around 39K cases today. Mizoram is soon joining Manipur as cases have gone past 900 today. I hope that the Centre steps in and helps the NE states increase testing.

[jayakris]

The worsening numbers continue in Kerala. 17,466 from 142,008 tests (90,681 AG + 51327 good). That is 12.4K more AG tests and 1.9K fewer RTPCR, for 3.5K more positives than on last Sunday... So we have the TPR at 12.29% (up 1.61 in a week), and adjusted TPR at 16.85% (up 1.68)... Again, nothing hopeful in those numbers.

The case numbers are going up a little faster now, which is quite worrisome. Still no word from INSACOG of what mutant might have happened. I think something must be there, for it to go up faster like this. Argh

What a wretched morning to wake up to. Losing to the Aussies so badly and then seeing Kerala in worsening trouble.