Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[suresh]

A nice thread on Total Positivity Rates for various states and how Bihar and UP bring down the national average through high numbers of testing and low TPR etc. Stuff we all know about but it is nice to see the discussion from @covid19india

[suresh]

Last Monday, it was 75K. Are we going under 70K today due to reduced testing? Mah is reporting 11921 cases, AP 5487, TN 5589 and Kerala 4538.

[jayakris]

Yes, we will probably finish under 70K. At 65.5K now with basically only Chhattisgarh to come. I would love to see CHG do what Jharkhand and Assam did today (massive AG test "melas". JH did 93K and Asam 120K - and they still found only 1500 and 3600 respectively; so they may be tests done earlier that got added today). I would be ecstatic if CHG did 75K AG tests and reported 6000 cases today. But no... Like TN, Kerala, Karnataka and Maharashtra, they will let all those patients infect others and slowly find them 2 weeks later when the case numbers go up much more (or stay without dropping like in TN).

If TN, Kerala, CHG, MAH and KAR can do what JH and ASM have done multiple times now (AG "melas" every now and then) and what Bihar and UP do every day, we can bring down this curve much more drastically. But some states' officials and ministers are just idiots. Sorry, no other way to say it.

-------------

EDIT: We had only +69.7K today. The states reported around a whopping 1291K tests today... The positivity was just 5.85% today!!

The surprise was the extra 120K tests done by Assam and JH (Monday tests, so ICMR's morning count wouldn't include them, explaining some of the big 482K mismatch; but even otherwise there was a 360K mismatch today. ICMR needs to crack the whip and get the states to input the counts properly into the portal! ... They may be legitimately holding back negatives on AG tests, for doing RT-PCR later etc though. Not sure)...

[jayakris]

ICMR Update: 73,110,041 total tests... Monday tests: 1,142,811... I expect something in the 1200-1300K range tomorrow... Lab count: 1836

[Omkara]

Rise in Kerala cases is due to onam. We will hit a new high post diwali. For sure!

[depleter]

I don't know what exactly will festivals bring more to the table than what is happening right now. As the situation progressed people completely gave up on social distancing. Now a days no one even wears even a mask....Like I saw multiple times where the vendors are right behind the police but none of the vendors are wearing any mask.

[suresh]

Odisha is sharing breakup of types of tests. For today, they have 3067 new cases from 41,452 new samples tested yesterday.

RT-PCR: 5,657
Antigen: 35,694
TrueNat: 101

The positivity rate of 7.4% is too high as a bulk of their tests are AG.

[jayakris]

^^^ Yes, ODI has been testing poorly... But not terrible or anything like the bad 5 -- Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and MP.

But MAH fell to +15K today, with a small drop in positivity to 19% too, so things are getting better there. Karnataka increased their testing a bit to 85K and got slightly better positivity, thank God... But KAR went up to 10.5K today to counterbalance the drop in MAH. But despite all that and another 3500 in Assam (from 135K tests!!), we should sill finish below last Tuesday's +83.4K by a thousand or so. Sitting at 78K with mainly only CHG to come.

But what is really going on in Punjab??? ... The death count remains very high (75 today!), even when their testing numbers are quite fine... They had 4.5% positivity today and generally stay in the 5 to 7% range with mostly PCR tests. But 75 deaths with 1085 cases makes no sense. It has been in the 40 to 75 range for a couple of weeks now.
-----

EDIT: Great numbers today. We only had +80.5K... The tests went up again, as Karnataka and Assam added extra tests... The states reported around 1298K tests and our positivity was just 6.20% today. The 7-day average dipped again for the 13th day. The active case total dropped by 6.7K too.

[jayakris]

ICMR update: 74,196,729 total tests... Tuesday tests: 1,086,688... The number mismatch keeps on growing and ICMR seems to be doing nothing about it... Or maybe they will suddenly show 2 million tests one fine day this week, to make it look like that we are testing at that level ... Lab count: 1839

[depleter]

May be....just may be.....we may see the TPR going below 5% next week after so many months.

[jayakris]

Oh, I too would love to see a TPR under 5%... I doubt if it will happen as early as next week though.

[Omkara]

Something wrong with Jay. No updates. Hasn't happened before not without prior information.hope all well.

Cases inching up moderately today. I did a cross check with yesterday's numbers. They are on the higher side. I hope overall number of tests come on the higher side.

[depleter]

Kerala's nos are going up too fast. But what is happening with Maharashtra? Even AP which went up later is already coming down. 481 deaths in a single day?? The highest for any other state would be just near 1/5th of it.

[jayakris]

Something wrong with Jay. No updates. Hasn't happened before not without prior information.hope all well.

Went to sleep very late and got up very late today; that's all. Have updated the numbers. Thanks for the concern!

Cases inching up moderately today. I did a cross check with yesterday's numbers. They are on the higher side. I hope overall number of tests come on the higher side.

Except for Karnataka raising their testing another notch and bringing the positivity below 10 at least for today, there is no great news today. Numbers are up here and there. So we will have a rise in 7-day average after 13 straight days of drops (EDIT: Only a +5; up from 82,863 to 8,2868 - so not really a rise). But I suspect it is not the start of a huge rise again or anything. Basically the start of a flatter period now, maybe.

[jayakris]

Kerala's nos are going up too fast. But what is happening with Maharashtra? Even AP which went up later is already coming down. 481 deaths in a single day?? The highest for any other state would be just near 1/5th of it.

Actually this has been the case for quite a while. MAH has been in the 400 to 495 range for most of the 2-3 weeks, I think. Only Karnataka tends to cross 100 on a rare day or two. It is unpardonable; what they have done in Maharashtra with their clueless handling of the testing matter. If you test at 25% for months, this is exactly what will happen and it is no surprise for any of us. 36K deaths in Maharashtra, when the next highest count is TN with 9.5K and KAR with 8.8K... No other state has even 6K deaths. However poor the healthcare infrastructure might be in Maharashtra, there is no excuse but political and administrative incompetence for any more than 10 or 15K deaths in Maharashtra. In my opinion, at least 20K deaths in Maharashtra were caused by the Government.