Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[suresh]

Folks, sorry for this delayed question, but what is the best source of data on the spread of Covid in India (particularly the breakdown by states that are the basis of Jay's brilliant daily updates)?

covid19india.org

[jai_in_canada]

...Not only ordering of vaccines but lack of effort to curb vaccine hesitancy is another problem.

@depleter, you seem to have knowledge of what is going on with the vaccine situation in India, so here are a couple of questions.

1) What can we expect total monthly vaccine supply to be as of July 2021 (manufactured & imported)? Is 180-200 million doses/month a reasonable expectation?
2) What is your estimate of vaccine hesitancy in India as % of population?

Thx

[jayakris]

Folks, sorry for this delayed question, but what is the best source of data on the spread of Covid in India (particularly the breakdown by states that are the basis of Jay's brilliant daily updates)?

covid19india.org

Yes, that is the site for graphs and visual data for the whole period (also district-wise data), but they are not my source. I only use Covid19india for cross-checking later if I made any mistakes (or if they made mistakes). Their numbers are quite a bit behind my updates (sometimes even by hours on things like test data) once I start updating by around 6 to 8 pm IST. My source is actually a telegram site where the state bulletins come out first, as soon as they are released and hit the wire. But do check Covid19india, where you can get it to show you graphs and curves for daily data, cumulative data and averaged data at national, state or district level (for cases, recoveries, active cases, deaths, tests, and vaccination)

[suresh]

^^ The best data is here!

[jayakris]

Oh boy... Bodies floating on the Ganga from UP to Bihar. https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-o ... 2021-05-10 (India Today)

Now we have to see articles by the truck load from around the world about hundreds (1000s?) of bodies floating in rivers in India.

Meanwhile, it looks like we may only have around 325-335K today, down from 355K last Monday.

[Kumar]

Meanwhile, it looks like we may only have around 325-335K today, down from 355K last Monday.

Number of tests will be around 1.75 million , hoping positivity rate doesn’t go above 19%. At least looking like it will be less than the positivity from last week.

[Kumar]

If current growth rates continue,then by mid-June India will surpass US to become the country with the most positive tests recorded in this pandemic. But mid-June is a long way away. Anything can happen. The US numbers are looking a lot like India's in Jan 2021. Are they setting up for Wave #4, or are they past this pandemic like even Chicken Little Fauci seems to be daring to proclaim? He also seems to have appointed himself as the Chief Pandemic Advisor to the Indian Government.

My guess is that states like Texas / Florida will have a spike in summer and their total relaxation and rest of the US in fall.considering that close to 50% population is immunized thru vaccine or infection, their fourth wave should not be bigger than their third wave. If they end up getting a wave similar in size to the January wave or bigger, I think the entire world is in trouble.

[depleter]

1) What can we expect total monthly vaccine supply to be as of July 2021 (manufactured & imported)? Is 180-200 million doses/month a reasonable expectation?
2) What is your estimate of vaccine hesitancy in India as % of population?

Thx

Yeah, 180M/month is actually easily achievable in July. Just SII - 100M and BB -70M will add upto 170M. Sputnik 10M and Zydus's vaccine - 10M will take it 190M. But this will all depend on everything going according to the plan. For example BB is going to use 2 other units to increase it's capacity. One in Hyderabad, a BSL-3 facility through which it aims to double the capacity and another in Bangalore, a BSL-4 facility through which it wants to increase the capacity by 7 times at the end. So, everything will depend on whether the tweaking of the facilities will be done in time. And BB is actually talking to various other players in the industry, may be they will get a partner which might further increase the capacity. Even Zydus is talking with 3-4 companies, who knows we may see increase there too.

I can't say as a percentage, but I do think it is still high though not as high as before the 2nd wave.

[jayakris]

^^^ Thanks for that update! If we are at even 150-160M by then, I will be okay. Need to do at least 35-40M doses a week. The current 12M doses per week is like almost not vaccinating anybody!

[Looks like we did something around 2.5M today, so there is an improvement from last week's numbers]

[jai_in_canada]

^^^ Thanks @depleter. That's good news. If vaccine supply can hit even 150m/month, as Jay says, then India should be able to vaccinate 75% of its population with two doses in about 12 months. In that case, even if vaccine hesitancy is at 20% of the population it wouldn't be a big issue. That should enable us to be cautiously optimistic about India getting to a safer state by April 2022 (if not even by Dec 2021). Hopefully by then booster shots for new virus variants are also rolling out. Of course, there are a lot of variables with raw materials supply, production capacity hiccups, export agreements, and distribution channel bottlenecks that can potentially slow things down. But then once things get rolling India usually keeps rolling.

[depleter]

After many months looks like recoveries are more than new cases today, thereby decreasing the active case count.

[jayakris]

Meanwhile, it looks like we may only have around 325-335K today, down from 355K last Monday.

Number of tests will be around 1.75 million, hoping positivity rate doesn’t go above 19%. At least looking like it will be less than the positivity from last week.

I was also expecting only 1750 to 1775K tests today, but Jharkhand seems to have done an extra 60K tests on Monday (Assam and Jharkhand report cases and tests the same day). So our positivity, which was already around 18.40% before that, came down all the way to 17.88% as Jharkhand didn't find a whole lot of additional cases!

So, we end up with a +329.5K from 1843K tests at 17.88% ... The seven-day average of case additions dropped by another 3754 to 387.6K... Nice to see solid evidence again of our having gone past the peak a few days ago!

The deaths were 3879 today. Again, no evidence of further rises on that. We should be able to say a "phew" after just a day or two more of waiting.

[prasen9]

As we have feared, the religious nutcases have been the harbingers of death. Not definitive proof yet. But, the true extent of the carnage brought by these superspreaders will perhaps become clear after the dust has settled later on. Sad as it may be, I guess a people who prefer to go by archaic religious norms instead of some modicum of rationality deserve the fate we have faced. There were many like Raja Rammohan Roy etc. who tried to reform these archaic religious norms and succeeded to some effect. We will not be rid of religion. It will be best to reform it to conform to what is good for the people now instead of what was good for people millenia ago. Religion was designed as a way to have society follow rules. These rules cannot be stagnant over millennia when the world around us is changing. Instead of these quacks and fake gurus, maybe we need a real guru to bring Hinduism to the 21st century. We are the land of the Buddha, etc. Maybe someone will emerge and do the needful?

The carnage will flow into the river that was the nurturer of life on this earth without parallel. If we do not take steps to clean the Ganga, it will also be the nurturer of death. Hope someone in the government is taking emergency measures to test the water, clean it, and prevent morons from drinking things from the worst parts, etc.

[PKBasu]

May 8 Weekly Vaccination Update:

Here is the weekly update of state-wise vaccination ranks on a per 1000 people (population) basis. Until the end of Saturday, May 1st (week 15 of vaccinations). The General public (18 and older) vaccinations have been done for 8 days now. [Here are the numbers from last week's update for comparison... For earlier weeks, toggle back through the links in each weekly update]

We have dropped for four weeks now - from 23M people to 17.5M, 12.1M, 9.6M, and 5.8M but the 2nd dose numbers have gone up. The total doses were 25.6M, 21.0M, 18.3M, 15.9M and 12.6M in the last four weeks. Hope things pick up soon.

Code: Select all

		Persons		Total		Persons	Shots
		(First		shots		per 1K	per 1K
		Doses)				people	people

Lakshadweep	19955		25455		273.356	348.699
Ladakh		82790		119276		271.443	391.069
Sikkim		163823		218186		237.425	316.212
Andaman/Nicobar	97202		110657		235.356	267.935
Tripura		928883		1393657		223.881	335.902
Himachal Pra.	1678113		2037743		221.183	268.583
Goa		308443		391445		192.656	244.500
Mizoram		230871		277860		186.337	224.262
Kerala		6169344		7933903		168.991	217.326
Chhattisgarh	4931083		5814814		165.173	194.775
Jammu&Kashmir	2212016		2692880		161.190	196.231
Daman and Diu	41820		52585		157.811	198.434
Uttarakhand	1745564		2326309		150.753	200.908
Chandigarh	184636		247629		150.723	202.146
Gujarat		10586908	13786185	149.935	195.244
Delhi		3035798		3897189		147.412	189.239
Rajasthan	11370196	14019524	141.588	174.578
Arunachal Pra.	206638		276476		132.206	176.888
Karnataka	8469643		10487851	123.847	153.358
Haryana		3554704		4266748		119.285	143.179
Maharashtra	14542681	17858864	114.545	140.665
Telangana	4373909		5187863		113.065	134.105
Puducherry	175469		215447		112.264	137.842
Odisha		5026362		6159998		110.737	135.713
Dadra/N. Haveli	40244		50249		107.604	134.356
Punjab		3251966		3836530		104.787	123.623
Andhra Pradesh	5321023		7294471		98.036	134.396
West Bengal	8764229		11891417	87.016	118.064
Madhya Pradesh	7163413		8595188		83.814	100.566
Meghalaya	274314		342209		81.860	102.121
Manipur		262930		329805		81.529	102.265
Nagaland	171744		218088		76.843	97.579
Jharkhand	2700008		3269710		69.454	84.108
Assam		2334686		2990895		65.502	83.913
Tamil Nadu	4835514		6480287		61.463	82.369
Bihar		6216512		7687374		50.043	61.883
Uttar Pradesh	10815768	13593961	46.254	58.135
Miscellaneous	1691342		3060935		

INDIA		133.981M	169.440M	96.737	122.339

The ranking of the larger 22 states (based on people vaccinated out of 1000): HP (221.2), KER (169.0), CHG (165.2), J&K (161.2), UK (150.8), GUJ (149.9), DEL (147.4), RAJ (141.6), KAR (123.8), HAR (119.3), MAH (114.5), TEL (113.1), ODI (110.7), PUN (104.8), AP (98.0), INDIA (96.7), WB (87.0), MP (83.8), JH (69.5), ASM (65.5), TN (61.6), BIH (50.0), UP (46.3)

That is, HP has vaccinated 1 in 5 people, and UP has done 1 in 22 people, at the extremes of the larger states. Now 10 of the larger states (up to Haryana) have done more than 1 in 8 people. The national average is 1 in 10.

Not much of moves this week by any state, but HP, Delhi, Haryana, Maharashtra and Assam did relatively more tests than others. Kerala and Chhattisgarh at the top did not do much. Lakshadweep with 273.4 and Ladakh with 271.4 are tops among all states/territories.

Is the population data (by state) dynamic (i.e., changing every minute, or updating every week)? Or is it based on the 2011 census, and some extrapolations? (I got the above from the Daily numbers update thread).

[PKBasu]

Folks, sorry for this delayed question, but what is the best source of data on the spread of Covid in India (particularly the breakdown by states that are the basis of Jay's brilliant daily updates)?

covid19india.org

Thanks Suresh!!