Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[sameerph]

Which brings me to a question that has bugged me right from the beginning. How are recoveries determined and reported? It's easy to record a case thru positive RT-PCR, but are they following up with every single positive case until they have been deemed recovered from Covid-19?

Yes, they are following up, but without 100% success, or probably not even 50% I assume. They are supposed to follow up until they show a negative on RT-PCR, as per ICMR's "strict" guidelines. There was that classic case of a woman in Kerala who was tested 24 times or something till they finally got the negative on RT-PCR, which drove the hospital people crazy... Again, it is India, so there will be cases where the patient simply disappears and nobody knows if he/she is recovered and nobody did any test to confirm it. That is why India's recovery numbers come very quickly. You see a certain case number on a day, and you get pretty much that number some 7 days later. Many are simply assumed recovered, as there is no info on them after they tested positive. They try to call people to check, and apparently only some half of the phone numbers they have on record works!

I do not think any of this tracing is done these days particularly for those who are home quarentined. I talked to so many who had turned positive of late in Mumbai, they were asked to quarentine by municipal corporation to stay home for 14 days (or may be 17) and were never tested after that. After 14 days ( or 17) were over, they just came out of their homes and there was no follow up from BMC . But, in certain other cases there is some follow up by BMC.

[jai_in_canada]

More than the number of cases/deaths, images of overcrowded hospitals, pictures of people begging for oxygen, and pictures of mass funerals (which the world press used to shame India)...the current vaccine debacle is a bigger embarrassment for a country that touted itself earlier this year as being the vaccine supplier to the world and how India will be fair and compassionate in helping both rich and poor countries...yadda.. yadda...blah...blah... Now India can't even supply it's own citizens, Poonawalla has turned into Londonwalla, and Bharat Biotech is just a speck.

What shenanigans are really going on that is not meeting the eye?

Now there are reports of an AP variant that is 15 times as virulent (as compared to what, I don't know), but apparently Kerala is taking "credit" for that variant.

[jai_in_canada]

Which brings me to a question that has bugged me right from the beginning. How are recoveries determined and reported? It's easy to record a case thru positive RT-PCR, but are they following up with every single positive case until they have been deemed recovered from Covid-19?

Yes, they are following up, but without 100% success, or probably not even 50% I assume. They are supposed to follow up until they show a negative on RT-PCR, as per ICMR's "strict" guidelines. There was that classic case of a woman in Kerala who was tested 24 times or something till they finally got the negative on RT-PCR, which drove the hospital people crazy... Again, it is India, so there will be cases where the patient simply disappears and nobody knows if he/she is recovered and nobody did any test to confirm it. That is why India's recovery numbers come very quickly. You see a certain case number on a day, and you get pretty much that number some 7 days later. Many are simply assumed recovered, as there is no info on them after they tested positive. They try to call people to check, and apparently only some half of the phone numbers they have on record works!

I do not think any of this tracing is done these days particularly for those who are home quarentined. I talked to so many who had turned positive of late in Mumbai, they were asked to quarentine by municipal corporation to stay home for 14 days (or may be 17) and were never tested after that. After 14 days ( or 17) were over, they just came out of their homes and there was no follow up from BMC . But, in certain other cases there is some follow up by BMC.

That's what I was afraid of. I'm sure it's a mess all over the world. That is why the "Active Cases" numbers are highly unreliable. And Rajit confirms that with his own case. Or may be they are overdoing it in some cases (like the lady in Kerala tested 24 times), and none at all.

[sameerph]

I am wondering how USA with only about 35 to 50K daily cases is having 6.7 million active cases. Even if you take earlier average of 60K+ cases, it is about 100+ times daily cases still active. Have they just forgotten to take out recoveries for many days ?

[jayakris]

Modi got carried away by election fever and took his eyes off the ball w.r.t vaccine.

I am tempted to agree. It is possible that nobody from ICMR or Niti-Aaayog alerted him at all. I mean, nobody was talking at all about an oxygen issue till mid April. But Modi has to take the blame. If for nothing else, for not having capable people to run the planning for him.

Lot of states had suspended their vaccine drive this past weekends due to shortage. My guess is that we will probably be close to 2M today.

Actually it may be just 1.3M today... Only 1.15M done by 8 pm .... It is absolutely horrible now. Less than 1/4th of what we should be doing (5 M per day)

We could potentially end up around 385k for today. This is slightly lower than our Saturday total of 392k (previous working day). More than a month since this has happened. Tomorrow is a big day and we will know if the drop will be sustained.

Looks like it. 362K with Delhi to come, so it should be around 285K or less... Tomorrow is the big day for sure. My hunch is that we won't go past 400K tomorrow. Hopefully some 395K.

[jai_in_canada]

I am wondering how USA with only about 35 to 50K daily cases is having 6.7 million active cases. Even if you take earlier average of 60K+ cases, it is about 100+ times daily cases still active. Have they just forgotten to take out recoveries for many days ?

Good point. Same with Mexico. Relatively small number of new cases but large number of active cases.
May be they have "long Covid".

[Kumar]

Which brings me to a question that has bugged me right from the beginning. How are recoveries determined and reported? It's easy to record a case thru positive RT-PCR, but are they following up with every single positive case until they have been deemed recovered from Covid-19?

Yes, they are following up, but without 100% success, or probably not even 50% I assume. They are supposed to follow up until they show a negative on RT-PCR, as per ICMR's "strict" guidelines. There was that classic case of a woman in Kerala who was tested 24 times or something till they finally got the negative on RT-PCR, which drove the hospital people crazy... Again, it is India, so there will be cases where the patient simply disappears and nobody knows if he/she is recovered and nobody did any test to confirm it. That is why India's recovery numbers come very quickly. You see a certain case number on a day, and you get pretty much that number some 7 days later. Many are simply assumed recovered, as there is no info on them after they tested positive. They try to call people to check, and apparently only some half of the phone numbers they have on record works! We have a great country that is flexible on everything, where nobody knows how to do anything too strictly by the book.

I know someone who bought up testing while in hospital multiple times. They basically said RT-PCR takes way long to show negative(dead virus) and they consider u clear after 14 days from infection. This was in Bangalore. That is why India’s recovery numbers are high.

I am wondering how USA with only about 35 to 50K daily cases is having 6.7 million active cases. Even if you take earlier average of 60K+ cases, it is about 100+ times daily cases still active. Have they just forgotten to take out recoveries for many days ?

May be US is till waiting for that second RT-PcR test to clear them?



Do we know if person can get immunity after being exposed to dead virus that is being shedded by COVID recovered patient actlng like vaccine? Or does that work only in vaccines with all the additional ingredients.

[jayakris]

As of 1:15 am, Delhi has still not released their bulletin... I guess we won't know till morning what the final count for the day was.

[prasen9]

I am wondering how USA with only about 35 to 50K daily cases is having 6.7 million active cases. Even if you take earlier average of 60K+ cases, it is about 100+ times daily cases still active. Have they just forgotten to take out recoveries for many days ?

Good point. Same with Mexico. Relatively small number of new cases but large number of active cases.
May be they have "long Covid".

So, now we have "Gourmet Covid" in Mexico and "Fast covid" in the U.S.? Very soon, we will have five-course COVID, three-course COVID, etc.

p.s.: COVID = Crispy, Oily, Vinegary, Itty-bitty Delight!

[Atithee]

Indian scribe strikes again!

'’Horrible' weeks ahead as India's virus catastrophe worsens
ANIRUDDHA GHOSAL
Mon, May 3, 2021, 9:08 PM

https://news.yahoo.com/india-tops-20m-c ... 04555.html

And, another one:
https://news.yahoo.com/120-covid-deaths ... 17542.html

This is more for the messaging. It seems like reaching a new peak may not have happened.

[jayakris]

It is very much possible that what we are getting now is simply a temporary peak and that it may start growing soon again, too. Or there may not be much of a drop for quite a while.... That is, taking 2 months to come down to even 250K per day. Quite possible. Just as nobody had a clue on how fast the 2nd wave would rise, the new mutations could cause havoc. For the time being, I am still hoping that we just hit the worst and it will get better fairly soon. When it will fall below 200K or 100K cases per day is anybody's guess.

If the next 2 or 3 days numbers do not show clear evidence of things, we should probably go into a lockdown of some sort. I'm just not sure what sort. I don't think the scientists are sure either. If they were, we would be in a lockdown already.

[Omkara]

Indian scribe strikes again!

'’Horrible' weeks ahead as India's virus catastrophe worsens
ANIRUDDHA GHOSAL
Mon, May 3, 2021, 9:08 PM

https://news.yahoo.com/india-tops-20m-c ... 04555.html

And, another one:
https://news.yahoo.com/120-covid-deaths ... 17542.html

This is more for the messaging. It seems like reaching a new peak may not have happened.

What were these guys saying in February. Why should I believe in them now? Today the Maharashtra government started its prep for third wave as there is genuine vaccine shortage. District wise oxygen plants are being established. Wise move. The second wave or its ramifications, irrespective whether it's peaked or not, will continue for some time. Unless it falters, just like the first wave peaked and fell.

[jai_in_canada]

It is very much possible that what we are getting now is simply a temporary peak and that it may start growing soon again, too.

This below is definitely a Covid peak!! From here it will definitely go down!

Mount Everest: Coronavirus reaches world's tallest peak
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56984320

[jai_in_canada]

Indian scribe strikes again!

'’Horrible' weeks ahead as India's virus catastrophe worsens
ANIRUDDHA GHOSAL
Mon, May 3, 2021, 9:08 PM

The press are pernicious peddlers of panic porn for profit, and propagators of propaganda for Pharma. And the politicians are pathetic puppets, and pirates pilfering from the public purse in the middle of this pandemic of pandemonium.

[jai_in_canada]

Do we know if person can get immunity after being exposed to dead virus that is being shedded by COVID recovered patient actlng like vaccine? Or does that work only in vaccines with all the additional ingredients.

If you believe the press, the professionals and the politicians, who are in the pay of Big Pharma, then the ONLY way to get immunity is to get the vaccine.