Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[suresh]

Hey, don't talk badly about Agarwal. I am forever grateful for his proving (along with his students) that PRIMES is polynomial!

Yes, tons of respect for him for that result.

[jayakris]

JIC, I think there are a few fundamental issues in your comments above (mostly in the testing/positivity matter), but let me wait for another 2-3 days or even a week before commenting. I'm unsure of the effect of the Saturday holiday. It is possible that the rise in a few states could keep the curve going up, but my hunch from the numbers is that it is not enough for the total curve to go up much. But it is too early to say, so I will wait

[Kumar]

One difference between US and India was that US case rates increased more slowly compared to India . The average daily case rate jumped only 3 times in one month compared to India which had six times jump.

Considering that Maharashtra, Delhi, Karnataka and UP are all on lockdowns,very likely that this numbers should see some drop in the next couple of weeks. Even if the states u mentioned see some jumps, hopefully it is not as bad as the above states.

I agree that availability of hospital beds, oxygen will give truer picture. Still drop in test cases / positivity rate should be followed by lessening demand on the infrastructure in 2-3 weeks. Unless we have a variant that is escaping the RT-PCR test and it is becoming a dominant strain.

[jai_in_canada]

I really want to be wrong in my above assessment. My gut tells me that this will turn around quickly, just like the first wave did. But I'm also afraid that that's not my gut talking to me but desperate, irrational hope. At my age I have decided that it's easier on my heart if I am pessimistic in my outlook and actual events/results turn out better.

[jayakris]

^^^ I sensed as much, JIC. I am also more cautious in optimism for that reason.

Meanwhile, Calls for nationwide lockdown intensify as Covid-19 cases rise

People are now latching on to Anthony Fauci sitting in the US and pontificating. How stupid. Come on!

I hope Modi won't capitulate to such ideas like a nationwide lockdown now, which may not help much in reducing the case numbers now (people will just sit at home and give to others) but it will cause untold misery for people. I am okay if he calls for a maximum one week "holiday period" after Wednesday if the numbers show no improvement in the next two days. I am not sure if the laborers and workers who have already lost their daily wages in many places can handle even that. I don't think the benefits from any lockdown will justify the costs. If there is any clear evidence that the deaths can be reduced because of that, I will say do it without even calculating the cost-benefits, but right now I seriously doubt it.

[jai_in_canada]

I was just going to post about lock down. The Delhi lockdown that came in to effect 2 weeks ago today when daily cases hit 25K after several days of sequential growth has kept the daily numbers below 25k for the past fortnight. For a lock down sceptic like me that shows that lock downs work to the extent of stopping things from getting worse. Whether lock down makes things better is a different question. I think lock downs need to be as targeted and precise as possible. I hope Modi doesn't cave to calls for national lockdown to avoid criticism and shore up his popularity. Problem is that the opposition is using this situation to score political points, which is sick.

Again, kudos to Kejriwal for making the u-turn on Apr 19 and calling for lockdown after saying that there will be no lockdown on Apr 11. Yes, he got roasted as a flip flop master, but it was the right call based on the rapudly deteriorating situation there. Things are still very bad in Delhi. Imagine if he hadn't called the lockdown and the daily numbers were now at 40k or 50k.

[jayakris]

^^^ I have no problem with localized lockdowns. Those are needed but our authorities have all been utterly incompetent at doing that. "Surgical strike" was needed against this virus, not carpet bombing. Anyway, those things should have been done much earlier too.

I'm not going to give any credit to Khichdiwal (or Modi and Amit Shah as Delhi is right under their noses and they did nothing either). They should have put in place detailed lockdowns (or "shut downs") at least two weeks earlier in Delhi. Shutting down precise industries, stopping travel to precise areas of the city, closing down certain religious functions, banning weddings and any community meals at functions altogether, stopping certain bus services, banning AC vehicle travel with closed windows, etc.

[jayakris]

So it is +355.8K today... Actually about 5K less than I expected. From 1831K tests at 19.43% ... The curve of three-day positivity is still flattening and getting close to dropping soon, seemingly. The 7-day average rose by 5200, and it is again less rise than the 6200 that we had 2 days ago (yesterday's number was a holiday blip)... I am not seeing indications that we should expect more than 390K to 400K tomorrow. So, I guess this is all hopeful news. Cross your finger and wait. The deaths were 3436, so the seven-day average on that is also flattening.

But vaccinations are simply not getting anywhere. Extremely lukewarm. We are down to hardly 2M per day of doses now. The manufacturers are simply not producing enough. I am beginning to doubt the capacity production numbers they were giving earlier. But now it is 3 or 4 weeks of lukewarm supply of vaccines into our national procurement system. It looks like we will only do about 200 million more doses maximum by late July... About 350M doses and 220M people at a rate of 7 or 8 million more people per week added every week for the next 12 weeks or so. By then the production will hopefully go up to 150M per month. Hopefully in another 4 to 6 weeks itself the supply numbers from SII and BB will go up. In another 4 months time, Sputnik and J&J will join and add more. It would be good to get some 30-40 million of that US stockpile of AZ doses soon. But I don't think US has that much in possession right now though they have paid for it.

Finally, just for the record, India went over 20 million in Covid cases, today. Only less than 20% are active cases. We are a bit over 220K in total fatality (1.1% CFR)

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ICMR Update: 293,310,779 total tests... Monday tests: 1,663,742 (a bit lower than I wanted)...

[Kumar]

I was told that private hospitals are still giving second doses at 4 weeks(for first doses that was given as per original schedule), while the corporation quickly adjusted the second dose to 6 weeks (at least in Chennai.

Considering the vaccine shortage,I think we need to start taking calculated risk and go with approach of the U.K. which seems to have worked. Instead of 60-40% , we need to probably go with 80-20% pushing the interval to 3 months instead of current 6-8 weeks). Otherwise, we may end up with much lower first doses than what Jay estimated

[suresh]

Bottom line: B.1.617 (the Indian variant) is significantly more transmissible.

[jai_in_canada]

Question: Any one hear of a new therapeutic protocol for treating Covid-19 that involves aspirin and blood thinners? It does not include anti-viral medications, steroids and oxygenation. Apparently it is being applied successfully in China & Russia. The approach is predicated on Covid-19 being more a vascular problem rather than a pulmonary problem. That is, blood clots forming in the lungs leading to breathing difficulties and tissue damage.

[rajitghosh]

When I had covid this is what my doctor gave. Blood thinners and aspirin along with Ivermectin

[suresh]

A relative of mine (in her 80s) vaccinated with one dose of Covishield started showing some symptoms. A CT scan showed Covid like damage of 30% but her O2sats were in the 90s all through. Based on this indication that it was covid, her doctor started her on dexamethasone and she is responding to it. Interestingly, her RTPCR test came out negative. Her doctor insists that it is Covid and that the test gave a false negative. Anecdotally, this episode shows that even one does of vaccine does protect under severe form of Covid.

[jai_in_canada]

When I had covid this is what my doctor gave. Blood thinners and aspirin along with Ivermectin

Wow. I don't recall that you had Covid-19. When was that? And how are you now? Glad that the treatment worked to get you better.

[rajitghosh]

I had around end January when cases in India were at their lowest. I am fine now. One week was tough.