Tokyo Olympics 2020

[rajitghosh]

4 golds from where? There are 2 mixed team events in shooting where India may have a realistic chance. The rest from where?

[PKBasu]

Fantastic that Neeraj is considered a serious contender for the silver medal at Tokyo. Not since Milkha Singh have we had a serious medal contender in athletics -- PT Usha (in a slightly depleted field at Los Angeles 1984) was trying a new event and wasn't known to be a contender until the heats and SF (after which speculation about gold became credible too). Sadly she (like Milkha) finished 4th in a photo-finish. If Neeraj is a silver contender, just a bit of luck could get him gold!

I think we are serious contenders for a Hockey medal too. With a bit of luck, and the familiarity of Asia, it could well be gold!

[prasen9]

4 golds from Karnataka. Maybe two from Hatti and two from Kolar.

[arjun2761]

This looks too high. I will be extremely happy if we reach 10 or even 8 considering how we fared last time.

Have they given the sportwise break-up ?

Yes, I would consider 7+ a success since our best has been 6 in the past and even that was a huge outlier. Would be ecstatic with 10+.

[sameerph]

Someone on twitter has given the break-up of their projections-

Golds (4) - 2 in shooting - 1 in 10M Air rifle women ( Apurvi or Elanevil) and 1 in pistol mixed team, 2 in wrestling - Bajrang and Vinesh
Silver (5) - 3 in shooting - 1 each in 10M Air pistol men and women, 1 in rifle mixed team, 1 in boxing ( Amit Panghal), 1 in weighlifting ( Mirabai Chanu)
Bronze (8) - 3 in shooting- 10M Air pistol women ,10M Ait rifle men, 25m Pistol women, 3 in boxing- 2 in women ( Marykon, Lovlina), 1 men ( Manish Kaushik), 1 in Wresling (Ravi Kumar), 1 in Archery ( not specified )

So, 8 in shooting, 4 in boxing , 3 in wrestling, 1 each in archery and weightlifting projected.

Agreed that our shooting team is really godo this time but still 8 medals looks a bit too much, i would be happy with 3-4 ( 1 gold), 1-2 in boxing, 2 in wrestling and 1 in weightlifing to make 7 -9 medals. Anything above that would be bonus for me and do not have hope for more than at most 2 gold medals.

From the sports which they have not projected, still have hopes that Sindhu will hit top form and surprise us at Tokyo, Neeraj Chopra in athletics and from our mens hockey team.

[rajitghosh]

Frankly I would be happiest if we can win a medal in hockey and regain some lost glory. Other medals become incidental then.

[sameerph]

Yes, that hockey medal is close to our heart and will be extremely happy if we get it. But, will be so elated too if we get our first athletics medal.

I am surprised on what basis they have 2 projected golds for Bajrang and Vinesh. In mens 65 kgs, as of now feel Rashidov from Russia is the favortie with the Japanese Otoguru close behind. I think Bajranj is fighting with 2-3 others for bronze. Will have to raise his performance a notch to get ahead of Rashidov and Otoguru. He should meet Otoguru in Asian championships later this week which will give us idea of where both stand.

In Vinesh's category, Japanse Mukaida is clear favorite. Vinesh is fighting for silver-Bronze with 3-4 others I feel.

[prasen9]

Frankly I would be happiest if we can win a medal in hockey and regain some lost glory. Other medals become incidental then.

I will take a silver in badminton say to a bronze in hockey. Or in wrestling. Or archery. Or shooting.

[arjun2761]

Frankly I would be happiest if we can win a medal in hockey and regain some lost glory. Other medals become incidental then.

Fully agree with this. Hockey medal is worth more to our psyche than most of the other medals even if they are the same in the medal table. A medal from Neeraj Chopra would be the next most meaningful medal since we haven't won a medal there yet and our athletic legends (Milkha, Usha etc.) are 4th place finishers.

[prasen9]

I think the "our" is whose-ever psyche it will be worth more for by definition. For people who are no-nonsense, the bottomline matters. Funky subjectiveness has no place. For "our psyche", more medals and better medals matter more. To each group, his or her own I suppose.

[depleter]

I will take a silver in any other discipline than a bronze in hockey. Feels like the first day would set the tone for this complete olympics.

[Sin Hombre]

Updating projections by sport starting with some easy ones

Badminton

Will be in contention / reach finals ( top 8)
PV Sindhu (women's singles badminton) (-1)

Rational mind knows they are no-hopers but we will still hope
Satwik/Chirag (men's doubles badminton (new entry)

Fallen off completely
B Sai Praneeth (men's singles badminton) (-1)
Saina Nehwal (women's singles badminton) (-) wont qualify
Kidambi Srikanth (men's singles badminton) (-) wont qualify

Overall, badminton medal prediction has gone down again: 0.54 --> 0.32

Hockey

Will be in contention / reach finals ( top 8)
men's field hockey team (+1)

Hockey prediction goes up from 0.1 --> 0.3

Weightlifting

Would be disappointed if they do not medal
Mirabai Chanu (48kg women's weightlifting) (-)

Medal prediction stays at 0.7 (though if there was a higher tier, I would move her. If she is not injured or on unnecessary spinach, she should medal easily).

Athletics

Will be in contention / reach finals ( top 8)
Neeraj Chopra (men's javelin) (+1)

Neeraj's strong return from injury means our medal prediction goes up from 0.1 --> 0.3

I am not going to update table tennis or tennis since those are essential foolish hopes (and prasen can think of those as 0)

By sport, (expected medal counts) (last WC medal count) (new expected medal count)

Shooting 5.34 (1) ?
Wrestling 1.86 (4) ?
Boxing 1.22 (2) ?
Weightlifting 0.7 (1*) 0.7
Badminton 0.54 (1-2*) 0.32
Archery 0.32 (1) ?
Hockey 0.1 (0) 0.3
Athletics 0.1 (0) 0.3
Table tennis 0.02 (0) 0.02
Tennis 0.02 (0) 0.02

Wrestling, we can update after these Asian championships.

Boxing, we have nothing new to update off. We had Amit, Kavinder, Manish and Sanjeet as medal prospects (0.7, 0.3, 0.1, 0.1) with Mary as a dream (0.02)

Shooting, sameer can update.

Archery, I believe there is nothing new to update off either.

[sameerph]

Fully agree with your these set of predictions, Sinhombre. Will update shooting sometime today.

As you said we will know the form of our mens freestyle wrestlters after these 2 days at Asian championships.

There is also Asian weightlifting championships which is starting today. So, we will update about Mirabai's chances after that.

Next week first of the archery world cups takes place after 2 years. So, we will know where our archers stand.

[prasen9]

Table tennis and tennis are firmly zero. Or let's say, 0.01. I would say Sindhu's probability is about 0.15 (being gracious by considering all 7 top-ranked to have about the same probability as her). Doubles don't know exactly but tending to zero, in my mind.

Shooting I am more hopeful but I understand the golden egg they lay at the big stage except the big one (Bindra) and some random shooters each time.

[Sin Hombre]

Table tennis and tennis are firmly zero. Or let's say, 0.01. I would say Sindhu's probability is about 0.15 (being gracious by considering all 7 top-ranked to have about the same probability as her). Doubles don't know exactly but tending to zero, in my mind.

That's a math fail there prasen

There are 3 medals to be won. If all top 8 players had equal probabilities and everyone else was 0, she would have 0.375 !