Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[Kumar]

Are we going to drop below our numbers from last Friday.currently projected to be around 402k with JH and Assam to report?

[jai_in_canada]

@jay Is UP still doing mostly RAT's?

I think Telangana is also 50% RAT-infested.
Either that, or they are doing the RT-KCR test.

[jayakris]

@jay Is UP still doing mostly RAT's?

No, UP has been doing about 60% or more of RT-PCR (actually quite a few TruNats too, which are as good as RT-PCR; the machine capacity is much less, that's all). I need to find the latest data on it.

Anyway, Yogi has been on top of this from day one -- this was from 4 weeks ago: Uttar Pradesh: 70% of daily Covid tests must be RT-PCR, CM directs officials

If Yogi ordered, you can count on it that it got done!

[jayakris]

@jay Is UP still doing mostly RAT's?

Multiply UP by 3x.... minimum....oh wait don't. You might get attested....

Multiply UP's deaths by 3. Go ahead. That would be 44K deaths. 19th in the world, in the state that is the 8th most populous "country" in the world, with possibly the worst healthcare system outside of some really poor African countries, maybe (at least, reportedly; now I am not even that sure ).

At some point, people need to give credit to Yogi for getting it done. We may not like the man, but we cannot be dishonest on plain numbers. We need to be more dishonest than we think he is (in the reported numbers) to prove that he isn't doing the job. Uttar Pradesh is one of the biggest success stories in the world on Covid, so far. Whichever way we try to twist the numbers and multiply by 3 or 5 and all that, that fact only gets established more firmly.

[jayakris]

Either that, or they are doing the RT-KCR test.

[jayakris]

There were recent reports (usually quoting "unnamed sources") that lots of people are sick in UP villages. Anyway, this came out today - Only 5% found positive in 69,000 tests in rural areas of Uttar Pradesh
That is tests of symptomatic people. Take it for whatever it's worth. I cannot say if that is good or bad, actually.

[jayakris]

So we finish with +401.3K... Less than last Saturday's 402K, so the 7-day average will drop (though slightly) for the first time in 85 days! (Man, has it been that long?)... It may flip for a couple of days and rise slightly because of the holiday testing rates last weekend (May 1st) but should be dropping from then on. [EDIT: All this changed later, as Telangana flipped back to same day reporting, and add today's 8 pm number to today's total, as opposed to tomorrow. They will give an evening update the same day from now on. So, the total is actualklt +406.9K (see May 7 Updates. That means the 7-day average did NOT fall. But still the rise was very little at a +700. Good going]

Today's cases were from 2175K tests, and the positivity again dropped a bit, to 18.46%... Multiple states (MAH, UP, GUJ, CHG, etc) are clearly showing positivity improvements lately. I am about 85% confident that we have gone past the peak which was sometime in the past 3 to 6 days. [EDIT: Adding Telangana's second bulletin numbers, it is 2240K tests at 18.17% positivity]

The deaths went up to 4191, (Edit: 4233 deaths with TEL second bulletin) and I think may go up for a day or two more. Hopefully it won't go over 4500 or so and that will be that for the peak.

Keep the fingers crossed, of course!

-----------------------
ICMR Update: 300,410,043 total tests... Friday tests: 1,808,344... We crossed 300M tests officially, though it is actually 330K+... Lab count: 2515

[jayakris]

Ladkah update: About 4000+ cases till a week ago in the new wave. 21 deaths so far. CFR at around 0.5% while they had 1.30 in the first wave. About 60% (my estimate) of the older folks vaccinated has indeed helped. India's CFR in the second wave is around 1.00%

Lakshadweep update: About 2100 cases in the new wave till a week ago. Just 9 deaths. The CFR is just below 0.5% there too. Actually they now have a higher vaccination rate than Ladakh. 27.2% of all population. It is 26.5% in Ladakh.

In just those two small places, I think we have saved some 30 lives from vaccination. That is my estimate. In fact, nationally, I think we have saved at least 25,000 lives from vaccination in this second wave (maybe as much as 35K to 40K). We have had 80K deaths so far in the second wave. It would be at least 105K without vaccination of vulnerable population. Unfortunately, we may have lost at least some 1000 (may be even 5000) people due to just oxygen shortage.

[Kumar]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation ... 99263.html

I feel that our population was less vulnerable to the infection than in other countries; therefore, our herd immunity threshold was about 50%. That means at 25% herd immunity the first wave peaked and it ended when 50% was reached. So, at the end of the first wave 50% or 690 million Indians had been infected. The second wave is in the remaining 50%. The herd immunity threshold for the viruses in second wave has to be higher -- perhaps 70%.

Noted virologist

Man, seriously which institution gave him his doctor degree?

[jai_in_canada]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation ... 99263.html

I feel that our population was less vulnerable to the infection than in other countries; therefore, our herd immunity threshold was about 50%. That means at 25% herd immunity the first wave peaked and it ended when 50% was reached. So, at the end of the first wave 50% or 690 million Indians had been infected. The second wave is in the remaining 50%. The herd immunity threshold for the viruses in second wave has to be higher -- perhaps 70%.

Noted virologist

Man, seriously which institution gave him his doctor degree?

Lol! Probably the same one that gave that scoundrel Fauci and that rascal Tedros their degrees. If Bill Gates can get so much air time in this pandemic, why shouldn't this quack?

[depleter]

Biological E is starting it's phase III trail for it's vaccine and it is expecting to get the nod in August for it's candidate.
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/ind ... 021-05-07/

It says it will start with 75-80M doses a month from the launch. By July both SII and Bharat Biotech will have expanded their production capacity and we will be at somewhere 6M/day capacity during the month. With Zydus Cadilla's ZyCov-D applying for permission this month itself, but it has a low production capacity of just 10M/month. And adding Sputnik to the mix we may be seeing at 9-10M/day capacity by August. Even Bharat Biotech's Nasal vaccine is looking for a nod in August. Even Covavax from Novavax will be available from September. At the moment we will be facing shortages in May and June and might start exporting again in September may be.

[Kumar]

Tamilnadu announces complete lockdown for 2 weeks. I guess pretty much all of our big states are on lockdown right?
There is lot more pressure on Modi to call complete nationwide lockdown with Indian medical association being the latest one.

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/t ... -24-148492

> Inter-district and intra-district bus services run by the government and private players are prohibited. Taxi services and auto services are also not allowed to operate. Those travelling to important weddings, funerals, interviews and job opportunities and hospitals can travel with the required documents/proof.

Don’t really understand shutting down local transportation options. People without private vehicles have to basically just stay home and have to depend on others for non-COVID health emergency.

[suresh]

Tamilnadu announces complete lockdown for 2 weeks. I guess pretty much all of our big states are on lockdown right?

Good call. This was expected irrespective of which party won the election. I hope that this stems the tide and we see TPR go under 10% by 24th.

[jai_in_canada]

I don't know why Modi did not constitute a Pandemic Advisory Board comprised of epidemiologists, physicians, hospital CEOs, vaccine manufacturers, economists, Big Data experts, industry representatives etc. and let them duke it out and come out with recommendations. Then he could selectively implement some recommendations. If things went well, he could have taken the credit. If things went badly, he could have thrown the "experts" under the bus. Why does he make himself the target? May be he is that pig-headed, self-confident, dominant, my-way-or-the-highway kind of dude. Those attributes may be assets to succeed in Indian politics, but they end up being liabilities when it comes to pandemic management.... and the dogs start barking.

Finally this happened! But it took 14 months into the pandemic, 2 months into the massive second wave, and it was done by the Supreme Court ... NOT by Mr. Narendra (Atma Nirbhar) Modi. Bewildering lack of visible leadership, regular direct communication to the nation, and tangible plan from the country's PM while the country is gripped by an unprecedented national emergency. So the Judicial Branch of Government had to step in. Un-freaking-believable.

Covid-19: Supreme Court Sets Up 12-Member National Task Force for Oxygen Distribution to States
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/co ... r-BB1gv6lG

I hope that they expand the mandate of this task force to include decision support (not authoritarian directives) to the State Governments for corrective measures (like lock downs, mask mandate), public service announcements/education, consolidated national reporting/analysis with input from the states, and allocation planning of scarce medical resources (testing, hospital beds, doctors, nurses) in addition to oxygen and medicine across states. Right now the States are twisting in the wind by themselves. We don't want centralized, out-of-touch, sledgehammer decision making from Delhi for all of India without considering the unique circumstances of each district, but there does need to be some Central guidance and support for planning, information sharing, and logistics.

[Kumar]

Just wondering if all big states are on a lockdown now?

OdIsha also announcing lockdown.

I hope that they expand the mandate of this task force to include decision support (not authoritarian directives)

Good point, Jai. Unfortunately , those supreme court panels turn authoritarian as well.