Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[jayakris]

We need to go under 38330 today for the seven day average to go down. I predict that we will have around 39K cases today.

Actually we did come under your cut on Sunday, but only because Karnataka had to report a lower number due to ICMR portal issues (they couldn't get the numbers off there late at night, and released something by 11 pm or so)... They said in the bulletin that they will add the remaining to tomorrow's total. I think there is a 500 to 800 cases of reduction because of that.

Anyway, so we had +38,176 today from about 1936K tests at 1.97%... The seven-day average dipped slightly by 22 to 37,655... The deaths were low, at 411, but it is Sunday.

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ICMR Update: 457,444,011 Total tests... Sunday tests: 1,154,444

[suresh]

^^ I was surprised that we didn't cross 39K. Karnataka's numbers explain that reduction. I am happy that the seven day average went down. I guess that won't happen today. My guess is that Kerala will only have 80K tests today.

[suresh]

Big States 26/7/2021 Monday

KL - 11586 (from 109K tests, TPR 10.6%)
TN - 1785
OR - 1637
AP - 1627
KA - 1606 (no reconciliations from yesterday)
AS - 1528
MZ - 1369 (Adding Mizoram to the list, 822 are reconciliation from tests done July 21-24)
MN - 989

Total - 22127=21305+822 (MH to come)

We need to go under 29420 for the seven day average to go down. This is highly unlikely.

[jayakris]

Somewhat okay numbers from Kerala today. Some of the "mass-testing" numbers from Fri/Sat are coming in (but the 300K+ extra test talk from Veena George was a plain lie).

KER had +11.6K from 109.4K tests (65.5K AG and 43.9K good) at 10.59% TPR... It was 15K more AG tests and 4.4K more RTPCR compared to a week ago, with for 1.7K more cases today... The TPR dropped from 11.08% to 10.59%, and even my adjusted TPR only went up from 14.17% to 14.55%...

So Kerala is probably only picking up more cases from more testing, and there isn't an explosion in cases starting off. Let us see. The next 5-6 days would probably tell is if we will start seeing a drop in Kerala numbers. Let's hope for it.

[jayakris]

We had a really good jump in vaccinations today. 6.5M shown by CoWin, so we probably did around 6.8M which is terrific. The Govt release said this morning that 30.9M with the states and 5.9M in the pipeline, for a 36.8M total. Things looking quite fine right now.

[jayakris]

So we had +30,820 cases from about 1760K tests @ 1.75% on Monday... The seven-day average went up slightly by 200, to 37855... The holding pattern continues. The deaths total fell to 418...

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ICMR Update: 459,164,121 total tests... Monday tests: 1,720,110... Lab count: 2790

[suresh]

Big States 27/7/2021 Tuesday

KL - 22129 (from 179K tests for a TPR of 12.4%)
TN - 1767
OR - 1629
AP - 1540
KA - 1501
AS - 1436
MN - 1165
MZ - 1118

Total - 32285 (MH to come)

Kerala is going to provide more than 50% of the cases thanks to a higher number of tests. We need to go under 42128 for the seven day average to go down. It appears that it will go up by around 100-200. I am expecting around 44K cases today.

[jayakris]

179.2K tests in KER with 136K AG and 43.2 good tests... I think a bit of this increase in AG ratio to 76% is due to the extra delay in RTPCR test results coming out, for the added weekend tests at high-TPR areas. Anyway, the TPR is 12.35% and my adjusted TPR is 19.86%

Here is the comparison of Friday-Tuesday adjusted TPRs from last week to this week
15.5 -> 16.8 -> 15.2 -> 14.2 -> 18.7
20.7 -> 18.3 -> 16.9 -> 14.6 -> 19.9

It doesn't say much ... Maybe it says that the rise in positivity is slowing down a bit. Hopefully KER is picking up a whole bunch of cases to force a peak and a drop. I am hoping for some clear drops to start coming by later this week, but let us see what happens. A drop in numbers is long overdue in Kerala.

[jayakris]

We need to go under 42128 for the seven day average to go down. It appears that it will go up by around 100-200. I am expecting around 44K cases today.

Actually we needed to be even lower to avoid a rise. More like 39650... We were well above it today, though not as bad as you feared.

We had +42,971 today, from about 1978K tests at 2.15%... The seven-day average rose by a big 475 to 38330, our highest average in 9 days. But the deaths were high, at 641... MAH and KER had more than 410 between them and about 150 may all be reconciliation (not mentioned in the bulletins though).

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ICMR Update: 460,900,978 total tests... Tuesday tests: 1,736,857... Lab count: 2791

[suresh]

covid19india.org shows the seven day average going up by 120 to 38330.

[jayakris]

covid19india.org shows the seven day average going up by 120 to 38330.

That is because they had added that 2500 reconciliation in Maharashtra 8 days ago to that day's total (it shouldn't have been, because it was from some period earlier). The actual number 8 days ago was lower (it was only 39,649), and so today's 42971 is a much bigger rise. It makes sense too. Kerala is some 4000 higher than a week ago, so our average went up noticeably.

[jayakris]

22,056 in Kerala today, but from 196,902 tests... It is a 11.2% TPR, which seems to be a better TPR than in the last 7-8 days... 138,367 AG and 58,535 good tests... The adjusted TPR is 18.14% and I think it is beginning to show a slight dropping trend. Let us keep our fingers crossed. Maybe Kerala has just reached a peak now and will drop.

Good to see that at least a bunch of extra tests were indeed done recently. Not as many as what the health minister Veena George was saying, but at least an extra 100K or 150K. That will only help, even if 70% were AG tests.

Meanwhile, the central ministry said they will send another team to Kerala. Some statements critical of the Kerala Government, with BJP spokesperson talking of "politics of appeasement" causing deaths and all that (opening up for Bakrid celebrations, basically). It seems the report from the previous team that went to Kerla was critical too, though Pinarayi/George twisted it and said they were fully satisfied!... Anyway, it is all politics as usual.

[suresh]

^^ At this point I will accept an increase in tests of any kind from Kerala.

[jayakris]

Absolutely. I will take any kind of test in KER. I have always thought that AG tests were just fine if a whole lot of tests are being done. That is, if it is a family, just test all of them and not pick and choose. There are probably two who are positive and AG will catch at least one of them. If anybody says he/she sneezed, run a test. If somebody says he was tested last week but that he had been to the temple where the pujari is now positive, then just test him. Just test a lot! AG is sometimes better because the results are immediate, too. It is AG tests combined with a stingy deliberate attitude about testing, that causes trouble.

[suresh]

Big States 28/7/2021 Wednesday

KL - 22056
AP - 2010
TN - 1756
OR - 1703
KA - 1531
AS - 1276
MN - 1003

Total - 31335 (MH to come)

I have dropped Mizoram from the list. I expect around 43-44K new cases today. We need to go under 41687 to have a decrease in the seven day average. This is unlikely. I don't feel bad given that Kerala is increasing testing and there is a glimmer of hope that numbers may go down in that state. Again, over 50% of our cases come from Kerala for a second straight day.