Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[Kumar]

US cases dropped from 250 to 100k in exactly a month and that is our best case scenario. Hopefully we drop like that and go to 200/250k at end of May. In the meantime, hope that very high % of cases are mild and our hospital infrastructure does not collapse.

[jai_in_canada]

So, now we have "Gourmet Covid" in Mexico and "Fast covid" in the U.S.? Very soon, we will have five-course COVID, three-course COVID, etc.

p.s.: COVID = Crispy, Oily, Vinegary, Itty-bitty Delight!

As long as no one comes up CovIdly, we can be relatively safe....no sambhar can drown that idly!

[Kumar]

This is one of forwards going thru WhatsApp..


https://www.msn.com/en-in/video/news/la ... p-BB1fJny2

For me, the most puzzling statement in this video was ‘No immunity post recovery’ ! What the hell are they meaning by that?
I don’t see any mention about that in this news article or the lancet website. Responsible journalism at its best.

https://science.thewire.in/health/stron ... cet-study/

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 2/fulltext

[jai_in_canada]

US cases dropped from 250 to 100k in exactly a month and that is our best case scenario. Hopefully we drop like that and go to 200/250k at end of May. In the meantime, hope that very high % of cases are mild and our hospital infrastructure does not collapse.

The US numbers dropped precipitously from Jan 18 to Mar 29, 2021 - but only after 3 previous sequential waves (Mar-May 2020, Jul-Aug 2020, Oct2020-Jan2021) with only a flattening but no receding between the waves. This is only the second wave for India - not that that should necessarily mean much. In Canada's case, however, each of the 3 waves had a clear peak followed by a trough before the next wave surged. So every country is showing a different profile, ostensibly due to differing demographics, population density, public transport utilization, climate, testing efficiency, adherence to safety protocols etc. So it's hard to extrapolate from one country to another.

My hope is that, because the second wave in India grew so incredibly sharply, most of the vulnerable population has been infected and is now immune. So hopefully there is just as sharp a decline in new infections, because this pace is not sustainable - even for this virus.

But then,as you have posted, there is a new claim in some channels that even after having the infection there is no immunity. Who knows if that is panic propaganda on behalf of Big Pharma to promote vaccines. Again as you posted, there seems to be no credible evidence either way.

So anyone's guess as to the future trend of this wave is as good as anyone else's.

[jai_in_canada]

India’s weekly rate of change of Active Cases (week ending):
Mar 08 – 11%
Mar 15 – 19%
Mar 22 – 54%
Mar 29 – 56%
Apr 05 – 45%
Apr 12 – 60%
Apr 19 – 61%
Apr 26 – 42%
May 03 – 20%

> So there is a definite receding of growth in active cases over the past 3 weeks (a trend?) – which is a hopeful sign that it is not just a flattening.
> New daily cases per million has stayed constant over the past 3 weeks at about 275 new daily cases per million.
> However, recoveries have surged at twice that rate – but this number is questionable, as discussed earlier.
> Since recorded recoveries are growing faster than reported new cases, the report shows a reduction in active cases.
> But … the situation in hospitals doesn’t seem to have alleviated noticeably.... as yet ... I suppose there will be lag in those numbers.

I'm clutching at straws, guys. Somebody throw me a life line.

[sameerph]

Positivity rate continues to go up day by day still and is close to 20% now. So, are the drop in numbers due to reduced testing ? In that case, the peak ( if reached) will not be real.

[suresh]

Failed to get the second vaccine for my mother. Went to the hospital only to see a sign that they do not have any stock and asked people to come back after two weeks. That Cowin app is useless if it gives appointments to places which do not have vaccine. The portal showed 37 vaccines being available when I made the booking.

[Atithee]

Positivity rate continues to go up day by day still and is close to 20% now. So, are the drop in numbers due to reduced testing ? In that case, the peak ( if reached) will not be real.

If more and more people are now recovered (have antibodies), the remaining pool of people getting tested is getting smaller, so a higher positivity is likely and even a good thing?

[jai_in_canada]

Positivity rate continues to go up day by day still and is close to 20% now. So, are the drop in numbers due to reduced testing ? In that case, the peak ( if reached) will not be real.

If more and more people are now recovered (have antibodies), the remaining pool of people getting tested is getting smaller, so a higher positivity is likely and even a good thing?

Testing & Positivity (Week Ending):

Mar 08 – 5,109,497 @ 2% positivity
Mar 15 – 5,439,142 @ 3% positivity
Mar 22 – 7,038,361 @ 4%
Mar 29 – 7,418,387 @ 6%
Apr 05 – 7,155,496 @ 8%
Apr 12 – 8,787,329 @ 11%
Apr 19 – 10,087,563 @ 16%
Apr 26 – 11,426,628 @ 20%
May 03 – 13,989,602 @ 22%

Testing has gone up. That's good. Positivity has also gone up. Not good. Especially not good that positivity has gone up as testing has gone up. Could mean growth in false negatives and huge numbers not tested.

[jayakris]

So it was just under 20K in Delhi, and we finished Tuesday with +382.8K .... From 2047K tests at 18.70% ... Better positivity than yesterday but I want to see it drop for 2 or 3 days in a row. We had 3786 deaths. The 7-day average only went up by about 2800.

So, there was nothing today to indicate that it was not a peak at 402K... So we will await the Wednesday numbers.

-------------
ICMR Update: 294,852,078 total tests... Tuesday tests: 1,541,299...

[Kumar]

Failed to get the second vaccine for my mother. Went to the hospital only to see a sign that they do not have any stock and asked people to come back after two weeks. That Cowin app is useless if it gives appointments to places which do not have vaccine. The portal showed 37 vaccines being available when I made the booking.

Suresh, try the nearby corporation offices / govt schools very close to your house where they may be giving vaccine. They may be better bet. For my parents who took their first shot at corporation office, the staff came by and gave them a new date for second dose(different from their original appt date). Also this places appears to be far less crowded than hospitals.

[suresh]

@kumar Thanks for the suggestion. Yes, I'm now trying other means. Hope that works.

[Kumar]

Positivity rate continues to go up day by day still and is close to 20% now. So, are the drop in numbers due to reduced testing ? In that case, the peak ( if reached) will not be real.

If more and more people are now recovered (have antibodies), the remaining pool of people getting tested is getting smaller, so a higher positivity is likely and even a good thing?

Also with movement restricted, immediate contact circle could be smaller than usual leading to more positivity.

[depleter]

Karnataka crossed 50K today. Hope other areas show a decline.

[jayakris]

Hope other areas show a decline.

Not really No big drops anywhere. Karnataka and Kerala both spiked. 363K so far with a few more to come... We are looking at a new high around 407K or so today, but it still looks like we are riding the peak.

I am still utterly baffled at whatever has been happening in Kerala since last August. 9 months of this without a break that everybody else got. That state never had a respite, and it is still going up. I cannot conjure up any explanation why or how this is happening in the state with the best healthcare system, a capable chief minister, and an educated/aware population known for hygiene and generally abiding by the law and all that too. What gives?