Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[jai_in_canada]

Looks like after a long time we dropped to #2 in daily casecount. Brazil ahead of us with 86K cases, did not know that Brazil is still reporting so many cases, in fact 3 of the top 4 nations barring us are all from South America- Brazil, Argentina and Colombia. Also Peru, Paraguay, Chile are in top 15.

How is vaccination rate in South American countries, is it too low ?

Argentina and Colombia are on fire with Covid and no one notices. Far worse than Brazil. Even at the worst point in India's second peak they had more new daily cases per million and more active cases per million. Today new cases per million adjusted for testing rates are: US (49), India (61), Brazil (402), UK (119), Argentina (591), Colombia (575), Chile (412).

Chile is one of the most vaccinated countries in the World.

In terms of active cases as % of World total as of today: US (44%), India (9%), Brazil (9%), Argentina (3%). This is NOT adjusted on a per million - just totals.

[depleter]

Hmm...Karnataka's positivity rate is finally below 5%.
New cases - 8249
Total tests - 169695

And the next day the tests decreases and cases increases

cases - 9785
Tests - 148027

[suresh]

@TNCoronaUpdate
#TamilNadu | 12 June

• TN - 15,108
• Today's Deaths - 374
• Today's Tests - 1,82,878 New record number of tests
* TPR - 8.3% Positivity goes down further

• Coimbatore - 1,982
• Erode - 1,353
• Chennai - 989

Big States:

TN - 15108
KL - 13832 (TPR goes down slightly to 12.7% but no sign of increase in testing)
MH - 10697
KA - 9785
AP - 6952
OR - 4852
WB - 4286

Total - 65512

We might see a drop of only 1-2K with respect to yesterday's numbers.

[jayakris]

Yeah, looks like some 80 to 83K today, unless Maharashtra drops a lot. Probably not. +63.5 with MAH and the last few to come. Updates....

Now 74.6K with PUN/ASM/CHG/JH to come.

[Kumar]

We will end with 80k. Going forward, our average drop would fall down to 3500 per day

[jayakris]

Yes, I think we are not going to see the remaining states drop all that fast now. So it will take a while for us to get below +30K or +40K per day. Maybe even a month or two. Will it even go below that before another wave starts? I don't know. If vaccinations pick up to 1/3rd of the population in the next couple of months (will need 4M new people per day for that), maybe there will be no problems and the numbers will drop because of that itself from there on, in September and October.

[jayakris]

So it is a +80.5K today... From about 2070K tests at 3.71%... The seven-day average fell by about 4.8K to 90.1K... It is a nice and smooth flattening of the curve, but the case numbers keep dropping. 1694 deaths today (plus 1606 reconciliation in Maharashtra).

Looks like a good day of vaccination today, at around 5% or so more shots than on on last Saturday. We vaccinated the second highest number of people this week (around 19.5M doses), and did the second most doses (close to 22M). Our best work in 9 weeks. Need to keep it going....

-----
ICMR Update: 378,132,474 total tests... Saturday tests: 1,900,312... Lab count: 2642

[suresh]

Yes, I think we are not going to see the remaining states drop all that fast now. So it will take a while for us to get below +30K or +40K per day. Maybe even a month or two. Will it even go below that before another wave starts? I don't know. If vaccinations pick up to 1/3rd of the population in the next couple of months (will need 4M new people per day for that), maybe there will be no problems and the numbers will drop because of that itself from there on, in September and October.

This is what I have been worried about -- it taking way too long for the numbers to go under 40-50K. There is some hope if the numbers of TN/KA/MH/KL go under 5K fast enough -- at the moment they need to go consistently under 10K. The silver lining is that TPR has been going down steadily -- Kerala is not doing great on this count either.

[jai_in_canada]

This is what I have been worried about -- it taking way too long for the numbers to go under 40-50K.

If you want the numbers to go below 40-50K there is one very effective way. Just go back to doing 1m tests per day like in Feb.

[suresh]

@TNCoronaUpdate
#TamilNadu | 13 June

• TN - 14,016
• Today's Deaths - 267 Yay!
• Today's Tests - 1,77,295 Slight dip in testing but not by much.
* TPR - 7.9% Yay!

• Coimbatore - 1,895
• Erode - 1,323
• Chennai - 935

Big States:

TN - 14016
KL - 11584 (TPR of 12.2% -- they are stubbornly refusing to increase tests)
KA - 7810
AP - 6770
OR - 4469
WB - 3984

Total - 48633 (MH yet to come)

Looks like a 5-6K reduction over yesterday's numbers.

[Kumar]

Looks like will go down to 73k today, 7-8k drop compared to 13k last week.

[suresh]

Big States:

TN - 14016
KL - 11584 (TPR of 12.2% -- they are stubbornly refusing to increase tests)
MH - 10442
KA - 7810
AP - 6770
OR - 4469
WB - 3984

Total - 59075 (about 6K lower than yesterday)

Looks like a 7-8K reduction over yesterday's numbers as Kumar suggests. Good.

[jayakris]

Looks like +71K today... 68.8 so far, with Assam delayed for some reason. But they report from Sunday tests and so it should be somewhere around 2000 there.

Update: Assam never sent out the release. No tweet from national health mission or the health minister. Finally the CM (who else, Himanta-dada) sent a tweet that it was 2167 there, from 100455 tests, with 36 deaths.

[Atithee]

So, Jay, it’s now a year that you’ve been reporting daily Covid numbers in India. Did “even” you realize that? Thanks for your dedication.

[depleter]

So, Jay, it’s now a year that you’ve been reporting daily Covid numbers in India. Did “even” you realize that? Thanks for your dedication.

Actually Jay's been reporting from before. It's just that this thread's been created for a year now. Thanks Jay.