All things related to China's aggression

[jayakris]

It seems the Indian media, etc. accept that we are the ones who went over the LAC into their side. Why did our military do that? This is asking for retaliation. If they were getting too close to the LAC, then the right way would have been to de-escalate at a high level. Is there a no-man's land that needed to be maintained that they violated? Even if it was so, just going in and doing hand to hand combat to drive them out was a poor idea. Who thought that we could "win" that? And, that they would not come back even if we did win? The loss of lives is really unfortunate. Will the military review who took what decision and change the guidelines or policy? These deaths on both sides serve no purpose. Instead of saber-rattling we should make sure we do all to prevent such deaths in the future.

It is a strategic location at the Galwan valley, and we needed to go into their side and do this. They started a buildup there, and we had to go in and tell them to stop it. The protocol is for military people to talk to each other. We needed to push them back.

Who thought we would win? We did, and we actually won too. They lost more people. If China wants to try something right there at Galwan, we will win, and they know it. They don't have an advantage at that point (unlike further south at Pangong Tso lake's north side where they have better infrastructure and roads and we don't). They suspected that we might do something at Galwan, which is why they were doing all these things like digging the river down on their side, creating space to pitch tents on their side, etc. They just have no space for kilometers upstream from the LAC, in the narrow valley where the river flows. If they were to get out and move into the flats on our side to pitch tents (where the Galwan flows into the Shyok river), we would have lost the advantage we have at that point, which was weaker border for them. We had to go in and stop them right there. That is what we did.

At least that is my understanding as of now. I am trying to read up more on it. I have no background in military strategy

[prasen9]

I have no idea what is going on. Your explanation may be the right one. Thanks.

[jayakris]

The account from this India Today article I posted above also seems to indicate that something like that happened.

Troop groups would continue fighting along the ridgelines moving up towards the right, with the intensity of the fisticuffs leading to many men on both sides plunging into the narrow Galwan river, some injuring themselves on rocks while falling. Earthworks by the Chinese on the banks of the Galwan and adjoining flanks of earth is said to have played a part in this.

This actually fits with what Abhilash Iyer was saying in the youtube video that Sin Hombre posted above -- though Abhilash seems to say that it was an attempt to stop the river or divert it or something which doesn't make sense. You can't stop rivers like that permanently, and they have no place to divert water from a reservoir, there. The river has to flow into the valley on the Indian side. But a temporary reservoir can be made with some arrangement to block water for a short period and then release it for an ambush or something. They must have just built some embankment like that (as said in this interesting blog that makes some sense to me).

They were probably doing that construction to be able to release a lot of water and cut off our vehicle movement on the dirt road leading up there. If needed later, that is - with the expectation that we might probably move up there sometime. From what I see, they don't have space on their side for a huge buildup because it is a very narrow area between mountains for several kilometers, while we have the whole Galwan valley to the left for troop buildup. Pushing them back on their side is a little easier for us if we were to try it (so it seems to my naive mind; I don't know military tactics)... We may have sensed their plans, probably because the river-flow fell a bit (or satellite imagery showed things) and decided to go force the issue early. All just my guesses.

Anyway, something must have gone wrong with the temporary earth structure they built. Probably some sheet piles or something that was holding up the embankment failed and a whole bunch of people fell in the river from both sides, some gush of water from a small reservoir buildup might have got released and some people probably washed down too, getting hit with some boulder and all that.

Now I am getting more and more curious about what exactly was this water-blocking structure. Abhilash says he has satellite imagery that shows a structure with water to the right and dry land to the left on our side, on the afternoon before the fight. This structure is about 600-700 meters inside Chinese territory. The structure got destroyed (or it failed) during the fight. It does seem like a sheet-pile embankment like I guessed above, and it seems that the Chinese even dropped those steel pieces on our side later to give proof that the structure is not there (after the talks and agreement to stand down).

Abhilash himself wonders (in another video that I showed) what can happen to river water that is in flow to one side of a structure and then not be there on the left side with no reservoir buildup to be seen in satellite imagery.

I end up with a curious (and possibly insane) suspicion if they were building a tunnel under the mountains on their side to send the water back to their side, and had done a test run of it. I don't have any topo-maps, but going by 3D images on Google maps, it seems like they would need to quietly build a diversion tunnel of some few kilometers to be able to bring it out to lower ground on the north side in Aksai Chin.

But the interesting thing is that even the google map satellite imagery (which is old) shows a strange patch on the side of the hill to the north side of the river on the Chinese side, which I had noticed earlier and was wondering about. Some sign of tunnel building???

Total speculation from me. I have no idea. That would be a strange and expensive thing for the Chinese to try. Why, I wouldn't know. But, for the kind of water flow on the Galwan river, I don't think the tunnel needed to be too big in diameter. But they couldn't have brought tunnel boring equipment and done it at that location, and it doesn't seem worth the massive effort. But then what was happening to the river water, if Abhilash is to be believed? And why was this important enough for India to decide to walk into their territory and force the issue?

[Atithee]

For all I know, this may be connected to Nepal’s saber-rattling and a disguised message to both the rattler and their benefactor. Have you considered this, Jay?

[jayakris]

Yes, Nepal has been completely bought by China. They are becoming just slaves, if they already aren't. Their choice, if they wish to be colonized. Their "attitude" towards us has been clearly because the strings are being pulled from Beijing. They were making it clear where their allegiance is, in case anything serious breaks out between India and China, but I don't think Nepal had any part in what is going on at Galwan and at Pangong Tso Lake.

[Sin Hombre]

Agree with that. This has everything to do with China trying to build strategic positional advantage in the Himalayas.

Most economists will say that "tariffs" are not a winning strategy. At the end, when you block trade, both parties get hurt. Like Saniapower said, we will face an inflation if we stop cheap goods coming in from China.

How will lack of cheap Chinese phones cause inflation? Or banning TikTok.

If you want to blame Modi, you should blame him for supporting his Gujrati brethren ; they are the biggest dhanda merchants doing this.

This study is also interesting, there are enough cheap alternatives
https://www.thehindu.com/business/Econo ... 893193.ece

So, I would like to see people talking about more specific actionable items that they would like to see. Jay's suggestion about having our troops go in at other areas if they are the ones who went in first here is a good one. But, I think in this case, we went in first. Although I am not sure.

Lot has been mentioned in this thread.

Just repeating my actionable list from my posts on this topic on SI

• Pacific Indian Ocean naval alliance with Japan and Australia
  Moving supply chains of pharma ingredients to Vietnam
  Ban TikTok and other Chinese spy apps
  Do not use Huawei for 5G
  Add tariffs on the list from the survey above

[jayakris]

Who thought we would win? We did, and we actually won too. They lost more people. If China wants to try something right there at Galwan, we will win, and they know it. They don't have an advantage at that point (unlike further south at Pangong Tso lake's north side where they have better infrastructure and roads and we don't).

Oh, it looks like I am a few years outdated on what I said here. Damnit, Modiji has now got a pukka asphalt road built on the North side that goes all the way up very close to finger 4 and set up a big permanent camp there. Not tents. Actual buildings. I can see that even on Google maps now!

I knew that the Chinese had taken control from finger 8 till finger 4 (the right half of the north side of the lake) and had built a road till there, though both sides always claimed their right to patrol either side. India claimed up to finger 8 but probably haven't patrolled past finger 6 or so for a long time... The Chinese, I thought, were patrolling till finger 2 on our side. But it looks like they have not been, because we have established control all the way to finger 4, right next to where the Chinese had built the road too (about 500 meters to the left beyond the next hill).

So, basically both have reached till the 1960s LAC (that neither side ever accepted there) and established control now. All the BS that people say that Chinese came to our side or that we had not given up the right half beyond finger 4 to them, is all BS. We had given up the right half by early 2000s (which I knew), but have fully taken control of the left half (which I was unaware of). So now China does not have any advantage there. In fact I don't know if the terrain will allow them to even take a tank from the tip of finger 4 to the left side (our side).

Jeez. Modiji has done a lot at all these border locations, and neutralized the free hand China was given by past administrations who always went by the defeatist rule that if we were to build roads there, they will only run their tanks on it - while they kept building roads since the 90s. All that BS is gone now. Thank God.

Stare them down, and that is the only thing that works on the Chinese Government. No need to finesse them. You try that, and they will take advantage of you. And don't fall for the fact that the Chinese are actually nice/friendly people (which they are!). Their Government is another matter.

[prasen9]

How will lack of cheap Chinese phones cause inflation?

Basic demand and supply. If we reduce the supply, the cost will go up and people will buy less. The cost of things going up is inflation. You repeat that will all the other goods and that will cause substantial inflation.

Or banning TikTok.

This one can be done. Like China has wrt Google and FaceBook, etc. and developed their own platforms. We can develop an Indian TikTok. However, insofar that that product adds to people's life experiences, without a suitable replacement, people's life experiences will suffer.

If you want to blame Modi, you should blame him for supporting his Gujrati brethren ; they are the biggest dhanda merchants doing this.

A good leader is not someone who follows the masses. Modi does take some random stupid decisions on his own though. While people applaud his decisiveness, I find that rather weird. You need to lead but you need to lead the country upward. Leading the country to jump off a cliff is not leadership. So, the decisiveness has to be coupled with improvement. Visionary leaders take solid decisions that move the country to a better state. While there have been incremental improvements, have not seen much for this guy.

This study is also interesting, there are enough cheap alternatives
https://www.thehindu.com/business/Econo ... 893193.ece

Reducing trade deficit against a single country is useless. Reducing what we buy from China and moving business elsewhere can be useful provided those other countries or domestic suppliers can provide the same type of products at the same price. I doubt they can. If they could, we would already have moved things. Rarely are prices exactly same.

So, I would like to see people talking about more specific actionable items that they would like to see. Jay's suggestion about having our troops go in at other areas if they are the ones who went in first here is a good one. But, I think in this case, we went in first. Although I am not sure.

Lot has been mentioned in this thread.

Just repeating my actionable list from my posts on this topic on SI

• Pacific Indian Ocean naval alliance with Japan and Australia
  Moving supply chains of pharma ingredients to Vietnam
  Ban TikTok and other Chinese spy apps
  Do not use Huawei for 5G
  Add tariffs on the list from the survey above

The naval alliance is a decent idea. Moving supply chains wherever it can be possible is also good. Huawei and 5G - we need a good alternative but if it is because of security reasons, we can do that. Otherwise, it will harm us more. Tariffs are generally useless. These will do diddly squat to move China. Government engineered market manipulation usually results in bad economic outcomes. So, let his Gujrati brethren do what they want. They are enterprising people and actually know what they are doing. It is good for the country.

[prasen9]

So we did ban TikTok. Whether it will do any good who knows.

Here is an article on China's debt. While it has lent a lot of money in Africa and elsewhere, possibly more than the Paris Club, there is also some doubt about whether those numbers are in Chinese numbers (see the number of coronavirus deaths in China ).

While I did say that the West has systematically used debts and strong-arming to poorer countries, they have done it to extort and get access for their private companies. China's economic invasion is different with respect to a) the state being the beneficiary instead of rapacious Western corporate interests, and b) the amounts were said to be much more than the Western countries did. Now, b) seems to be smaller. The concerns still remain. I think on the balance it will be good for the African countries. If I am going to be extorted anyway, might as well take a lot of money and use it to improve my country and then give some concessions that the lender wants. Of course, a bigger lender may want bigger concessions. Let us see how this all plays out. I want to see real impacts to see if the concerns are just because China is not part of the Western gang or because they are really doing something unprecedentedly bad.

[prasen9]

Well, China has lent a lot more for a single country. But, if we look at the World Bank, China has about the same amount of debt loaned out to these African and other poor countries. Given the environmental destruction and other destruction heaped by the World Bank (along with the economic good that money brings), China has a tall task to beat with respect to being worse than them. Hope they do not. Let us see.

[Atithee]

What’s going in here? It sounds very serious:

India captures Chinese camp in disputed Ladakh as violence erupts again between superpowers

https://news.yahoo.com/india-captures-c ... 15759.html

[jayakris]

It seems the tanks on both sides are within firing range now, as per India Today. Great. Here we go.