Sports and Performance Enhancing Drugs (Doping)

[jayakris]

SaniaFan, we have known for a long time that @mugundan follows this stuff very closely and looks at the progression of results in very good detail to detect anomalies. And in almost all cases where he has shown suspicion based on results progression in the past, things have checked out later and proved his guesses to be correct. For instance, I don't think he ever suspected Neeraj and I think he had said quite early that Neeraj was probably not on any vegetables. If it is an anomaly once, but then the better results sticks on consistently, he would also go back and re-calibrate his opinion. I don't think he has any state bias, but he knows where there is higher prevalence of doping.

[sameerph]

Neeraj's big leap was between 2014-2016 when he was 17-19 which is when many athletes improve a lot naturally. Since 2016, one cam say that he is in fact a bit stagnated. From 86.48 at junior world championships to 89.94 which is his PB achieved in 2022. So, only a little more than 3 mtrs in 7+ years which is nothing much for which anything extra is needed.

[Mugundan]

Where is his hate/bias against Haryana? You cannot make up something and say that he can't say that. That is called a strawman. He never said that. Doping suspicions arise not when someone does something great or extraordinary. They arise when someone is at a certain level and suddenly jumps up to another level and then is not consistent at that level. Did Neeraj Chopra have such extraordinary jumps from him prior levels and then inconsistency at that level? Then, yes, we should scrutinize him for doping. As we should everyone.

Here is an article that shows Neeraj's progression over the years. It does not have suspicious jumps. Whether he dopes or not, I do not know. I have nothing to be greatly suspicious about him. That is all. Several of the others - plenty.

Thanks Prasen for explaining things so very well. This is what I also felt when I read the post: That one doesn't doubt an extra-ordinary (unique would be better) achievement in terms of a medal but an "abnormal improvement". Whether it be in athletics or swimming or weightlifting it doesn't matter. The progression is what we (me and those who follow sport as well as doping in sport) look for. If a particular athlete comes from a particular state or region (or country for that matter) one looks at the rate of progression. If there is a jump from nowhere, and the rest of the contributing factors add up (no testing for a good period, or no testing at all, a particular state with a notoriety for spinach-consumption (!), no great coaching or coaching facilities etc) I do doubt. That's what I meant.
The athlete could be from Haryana or Uttar Pradesh or Punjab (top contributors), my opinion would be the same. is he/she a spinach-taker? There are some states that are in the forefront, some in the "chase" and some relatively lower down. Then there are some that has a dominance over short sprints (including 400), especially among females, some that are ahead in throws; some in sprints and jumps etc etc..
Chopra had one jump from 2014 (70.19) to 81.04 (2015) if we look season to season. But within 2015 he had 73.45 (Feb), 73.96 (May), 77.33 (July), 77.67 (Sept) before 81.04 (Dec).
He then had that phenomenal 86.48m for the WJr gold and W-U-20 record in 2016. It was too late for the Olympic qualification. Had he been taking short cuts he would have qualified for Rio well in time. Mind you he was by then under Garry Calvert, the great Aussie coach who alas is no more.
Significantly, he posted an NR 88.06 for the Asian Games gold in 2018 and equally significantly progressed by just one more centimeter only in 2021 (by then having undergone a surgery). Rest, as they say, is history!

[Mugundan]

SaniaFan, we have known for a long time that @mugundan follows this stuff very closely and looks at the progression of results in very good detail to detect anomalies. And in almost all cases where he has shown suspicion based on results progression in the past, things have checked out later and proved his guesses to be correct. For instance, I don't think he ever suspected Neeraj and I think he had said quite early that Neeraj was probably not on any vegetables. If it is an anomaly once, but then the better results sticks on consistently, he would also go back and re-calibrate his opinion. I don't think he has any state bias, but he knows where there is higher prevalence of doping.

Thanks Jay. Yes, I don't have any State bias in sport or on the topic of spinach! Having lived in Delhi for 40-plus years after having done my graduation in Kerala and having started my retired life, all over again in Kerala, if there is a bias that is in pointing out the safety of women in Kerala compared to the extremely dangerous situation in a place like Delhi (understandable to some extent for a Metro a big mix of people).
If an unknown girl improves PB from a (known) 12.09 to 11.55 in a season in 100m, that for me is "abnormal" just as it is when an 18-year-old boy adds 56cm to his pole vault PB in a season. I just can't look at it differently. I will now keep track of the progress. That's what I do normally whether the athlete is from Haryana or TN or Kerala or UP.

[Mugundan]

Neeraj's big leap was between 2014-2016 when he was 17-19 which is when many athletes improve a lot naturally. Since 2016, one cam say that he is in fact a bit stagnated. From 86.48 at junior world championships to 89.94 which is his PB achieved in 2022. So, only a little more than 3 mtrs in 7+ years which is nothing much for which anything extra is needed.

Correct observation Sameer, the one about a bit of stagnation.

[SaniaFan]

But where did I say Mugu had a state bias? I know he does not
Although looking closely following line may make some believe so.

Relatively unknown girl, a huge jump from 12.09 to 11.55 (or 11.56s), will this kind of improvement be sustained? Past shows it won't be, especially if the athlete is from Haryana

My point is just that it is a public forum and you are casting aspersions against a young player where there is no case or anything against him/her. Can that impact them getting any kind of sponsorship etc., and thus affecting their career? I don't know if we as a forum are important enough for that. Not sure if someone makes a casual search on a name and they will find post from our forum casting aspersions on some performances. I know if any one is sponsoring an athelete he may not do such casual background check but if it has impacts even 1% of some ones chances then I am not sure we should be doing this.

[Saffron Lenin]

@SaniaFan....That's why I have stopped visiting "Sports and Performance Enhancing Drugs (Doping)" thread. People are just accusing/suspecting left and right every upcoming athlete...They have a kind of mentality that no Indian can ever perform something amazing and if someone is performing amazing then we will throw accusation of doping without any proof!!!

[SaniaFan]

I dug some more and it is not a jump from 12.09 to 11.55. Last year, in the same tournament, she had gold with 11.91. Link of that race provided below

[Saffron Lenin]

@SaniaFan
That is the problem with policing....I can recall that when I posted about latest national record broken in 100 m sprint, many people start accusing him of doping. Imagine what an athlete will feel when his/her life's greatest achievement is tainted with doping allegation!!!

[Mugundan]

I dug some more and it is not a jump from 12.09 to 11.55. Last year, in the same tournament, she had gold with 11.91. Link of that race provided below

I went by what was available at World Athletics. They gave it as 12.09.
Now, on checking up I find that her 11.91 and 12.09 at the same meet have 0.0 wind reading. In fact most of the 100m races in both men and women have 0.0 wind speed. WA does not take wind-assisted records or marks with "no wind information". Even if we take 11.91 as her previous best, the jump to 11.55 is still big. These kinds of improvements create doubts. I don't think I have said someone is a doper on this board. Can there be doubts about some performances? Yes. Can such performances be sustained? Going by past, it cannot be or it is unlikely. If it is a sprint event, and if the athlete is from Haryana (or UP) the doubts could be more. For, the state has a dubious record. I hope this athlete and others who have performed beyond expectations this season come out triumphant with better records next season.

[SaniaFan]

My point is she is at a age where big improvement is possible as we saw with Neeraj at similar age. Also she is improving over last 2 years. I saw some of her under 18 races as well. So I would rather give her a chance than cast aspersions.
Tomorrow any one can be a doper, even world champions have been! At least I would not say even if I think unless it is palpable.

[Mugundan]

I agree. We should wait for some more time, though I am rather skeptical.
WA site does not give her under-18 timings. If you can please post them. They would be interesting.

[prasen9]

@SaniaFan....That's why I have stopped visiting "Sports and Performance Enhancing Drugs (Doping)" thread. People are just accusing/suspecting left and right every upcoming athlete...They have a kind of mentality that no Indian can ever perform something amazing and if someone is performing amazing then we will throw accusation of doping without any proof!!!

This is categorically false. One can verify this by going to the thread and checking if every upcoming athlete is accused or suspected. And, as usual Lenin makes up what mentality posters in his imagination and purports that to be true. Of course, he has not been in the minds of posters on that thread. Talking about having any proof, please prove the accusations you have made above. And, I am glad you are not visiting that thread and spreading such nonsense there.

[Mugundan]

I tried checking out that thread. But managed only a few pages. It requires time. The ones I checked, I found we were reporting doping incidents, NADA charges, suspensions etc, mainly through news reports. Some comments are inevitable. Otherwise, why should one go through such threads? Since my interest has been doping during the past 14 years (NADA's existence), especially in athletics, I have posted quite a few there. Will check again to see whether I slipped into unfounded accusations!

[prasen9]

To the extent I recall, I too have posted, perhaps the most after Mugu only news of confirmed doping cheats in that thread. I do not know as much as Mugu, SaniaFan, Sameer, Sin Hombre, Jay, etc. about athletics. So, I have kept away from suggesting a performance is suspect or not. After someone has pointed out, if it seems like a big anomaly, then I may have chimed in.

At the end of the day, the unfortunate reality is that India is #2 wrt doping after Russia. Either we are doping a lot or we are stupid and getting caught a lot. Any case, you need to be doping to get caught. Sad state of affairs.

And, athletics is the sport with the most amount of dope cheats. Especially in long-distance running.