Paris Olympics 2024

[srini]

^^ The only medal in weightlifting we can hope from Mirabai is doubtful. She was the best in clean & Jerk at Tokyo with a lift of 115 Kg but her snatch of 87Kg was poor. The Thai who got bronze at Asiad is younger than Mira lifted 199Kg (90 + 109) at Asiad with the possibility of improving further by next year. Hopefully Mira will be out of injury woes and can improve her snatch by Paris'24.

[Sin Hombre]

^^ The only medal in weightlifting we can hope from Mirabai is doubtful. She was the best in clean & Jerk at Tokyo with a lift of 115 Kg but her snatch of 87Kg was poor. The Thai who got bronze at Asiad is younger than Mira lifted 199Kg (90 + 109) at Asiad with the possibility of improving further by next year. Hopefully Mira will be out of injury woes and can improve her snatch by Paris'24.

North Korea is still disbarred from weightlifting which is the main reason Mirabai still has medal prospects.
https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles ... foreigners

China will win gold, Thailand/USA/India/Romania will fight for silver and bronze. If she can match what she did in Tokyo, she will at least win a bronze.

[Sin Hombre]

Thanks, Sinhombre.

Looks more or less accurate projections. Just a couple observations. Are Deepak Punia and Lovlina a category ahead ( i.e 50% probability of medal instead of 30%). Like I think Antim has a better chance for a medal than Deepak only due to less dept in the weight class. There is one strong Japanese wrestler and 3-4 others who are almost equal which includes Antim.

Should we have Bajrang as 10 or 5% probability. I know he flopped at Asian games but he was coming back after a long inactive period. If he does some conditioning can he get back, he did win a medal at 2022 world championships.

Have not studied Lovlina category. So, not sure if she more of a medal favourite than Nikhat.

Bajrang right now won't even qualify for the Olympics. I am hoping that changes in the coming months, or we send someone else.

Agree that Antim is in a group of 5-6 that will fight for medals behind the Japanese, same as Vinesh who flopped in similar conditions.

Deepak almost medaled in Tokyo and beat Shapiev who finished 5th and Sharipov who finished 6th at the world championships. Shapiev beat Dauletbekov (bronze medalist at the same WC). Outside of the American and Iranian, there are about 5 wrestlers who will compete for the 2 bronze medals as far as I can see. Maybe Antim is 0.55 and Deepak is 0.45 but they are in the same tier.

I think Lovlina has non-zero chances of even a gold. There are 6 good boxers in her weight and they are all about the same. She beat 4 of them to win the gold at the World Championships in home conditions (Mozambique, Panama, Australia and China) and then lost to the Chinese in Chinese judging at the Asiad. If she avoids any of them until the last 4, that will almost be a guaranteed medal.

It is a similar number of good boxers in Nikhat's weight as well but unlike Lovlina, she hasn't beaten any of them.

[srini]

^^ The only medal in weightlifting we can hope from Mirabai is doubtful. She was the best in clean & Jerk at Tokyo with a lift of 115 Kg but her snatch of 87Kg was poor. The Thai who got bronze at Asiad is younger than Mira lifted 199Kg (90 + 109) at Asiad with the possibility of improving further by next year. Hopefully Mira will be out of injury woes and can improve her snatch by Paris'24.

North Korea is still disbarred from weightlifting which is the main reason Mirabai still has medal prospects.
https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles ... foreigners

China will win gold, Thailand/USA/India/Romania will fight for silver and bronze. If she can match what she did in Tokyo, she will at least win a bronze.

Interesting, i was assuming it was North Korea's own decision to not participate at Tokyo, but if it hasn't participated in the qualifiers for Paris and will not be able to participate at Paris even if it allows dope testers from now that would put Mira back in contention. But how were north koreans allowed to compete at Asian inspite of non compliance for testing? For all we know they may be dopes and Mira was robbed of her bronze medal !

Actually with this new info, i would recommend Mira to be moved to Top-5/6 in the world or 50/50 medal chances. I am almost sure she can sort out her injury woes by Olympics time. Even if she performs at same level as Asiad she may still get a bronze.

[sameerph]

Bajrang right now won't even qualify for the Olympics. I am hoping that changes in the coming months, or we send someone else.

Agree that Antim is in a group of 5-6 that will fight for medals behind the Japanese, same as Vinesh who flopped in similar conditions.

Deepak almost medaled in Tokyo and beat Shapiev who finished 5th and Sharipov who finished 6th at the world championships. Shapiev beat Dauletbekov (bronze medalist at the same WC). Outside of the American and Iranian, there are about 5 wrestlers who will compete for the 2 bronze medals as far as I can see. Maybe Antim is 0.55 and Deepak is 0.45 but they are in the same tier.

Agree about Bajrang. Indians have 2 more chances to qualify for Paris. Asian qualification tournament where 2 places would be available and final world qualification tournament where 3 places would be available. In Bajrang's category, Mongolian Ochir who won gold at Asian games and silver at Asian championships and Japanese Tokyo gold medalist Otoguru are both yet to qualify. So, it would be very tough to get a quota at Asian championships. Maybe he can get a quota at last qualification event when all the good wrestlers would have qualified thru continental quotas. But, he will to beat one of the strong wrestlers either way for a medal at olympics which looks far off right now and we do not have another one who can take Bajrang's place in this category.

Deepak and Aman also have to still qualify. But, in Deepak's category, 3 Asians - Iranian Yazadani, Uzbek Shapiev and Kazak Dauletbekov have already qualified. So, if Deepak is in decent shape he has a good chance to get a quota at Asian qualification tournament itself.

In Aman's category, strong Japanese Higuchi has qualified . Aman has decent chance to be in top 2 among others at Asian qualification tournament.

Do not see any other men wrestlers with a medal chance as of now.

Among women, there may be an outside chance for those other than Antim. Sonam or Anshu/Manasi or Kiran/Priya Malik can sneak in a surprise medal if they get a lucky draw just as Sakshi Mallik did in Rio.

[sameerph]

I think Lovlina has non-zero chances of even a gold. There are 6 good boxers in her weight and they are all about the same. She beat 4 of them to win the gold at the World Championships in home conditions (Mozambique, Panama, Australia and China) and then lost to the Chinese in Chinese judging at the Asiad. If she avoids any of them until the last 4, that will almost be a guaranteed medal.

It is a similar number of good boxers in Nikhat's weight as well but unlike Lovlina, she hasn't beaten any of them.

Just had a look are results of Asian games, last 2 world championships , CWG and Tokyo olympics,

I guess the good boxers in Lovlina's category are

Chinese Li Qian who beat her for AG gold and is also Tokyo olympics silver medalists
Canadian Thibeault who won gold at WC 2022 and CWG in same year
Atheyna Bylon from Panama who was silver medalist at 2022 world championships
Australian Caitilin Parker who won silver losing to Lovlina at 2023 world championships
Aoife O'Rourke from Ireland who won gold at European games this year to qualify for Europe.
Also boxers from Mozambique and France who have minor medals.

2 best boxers from that lot appear to be Chinese and Canadian. Nobody really unbeatable for Lovlina though. 8 or so boxers fighting for 4 medals with Lovlina more than even chance. So, I agree with 50% probability.

I guess in Nikhat's category, good ones are -

Chinese Wu Yu who won gold at Asian games,
Turkey's Buse Naz Çakıroğlu who won gold at 2022 WC and silver medalist at Tolyo olympics in flyweight, Also won gold at European games this year
Colombian ingrit Valencia silver medalist at 2022 WC
Thai Raksat who beat Nikhat in Asian games

So, probably a smaller pool than Lovlina category and Nikhat has beaten Colombian and Thai in 2023 WC.
To be fair to Nikhat she won gold at both 2023 and 2022 world championships and CWG. Asian games was her first real failure in last 2 years. So, giving her benefit of one bad day ( and it was a close decision) maybe she too has 50% probability of a medal ( unless I missed some other better contenders).

[prasen9]

What % of Olympics medalists were medaling for the first time? That is, could there be new people emerging apart from these who we do not know of.

[arjun2761]

FWIW, all 7 of our medalists were from our top 2 groups in our projections a couple of months before the 2020 Olympics. Of course, the older projections done say a year earlier were less accurate.

[pancakesdonuts]

is >10 medals realistic in Paris?

[Sin Hombre]

FWIW, all 7 of our medalists were from our top 2 groups in our projections a couple of months before the 2020 Olympics. Of course, the older projections done say a year earlier were less accurate.

They were all in the 0.3 bucket or higher. Sakshi Malik is the only time we had a 0.05 medal but we also now know better and almost any female wrestler who qualifies will get a 0.1

It is a good point from Arjun though, and we only have 12 realistic medal prospects right now (0.3 or higher). We really need some more shooters and wrestlers to go up to those categories in the next 10 months.

[sameerph]

^^^ Yes, last time we had more than 12 I think. But, it included 3-4 from shooting team.

There were at least 4 who looked looked to have at least 50% medal probability last time but flopped- Saurabh, Saurabh-Manu in mixed team, Vinesh Phogat and Amit Paghal in boxing were all favourites for medals but flopped. We getting 7 despite that was really good. Almost everyone with 0.3 probability bucket medalled.

[sameerph]

is >10 medals realistic in Paris?

For that to happen we need to have at least 3 medals from shooting I think.

[prasen9]

I do not think it is realistic but that is what we should aim/hope for.

[prasen9]

FWIW, all 7 of our medalists were from our top 2 groups in our projections a couple of months before the 2020 Olympics. Of course, the older projections done say a year earlier were less accurate.

Well, that is the answer to the optimistic interpretation I was asking, in the past, have medalists in these sports emerged who we did not know of as contenders 1 year earlier from other countries. And, in that sense, we have to account for these unknown competitors and thus the probabilities estimated of our medaling will be lower. Has that happened before? Or is it extremely rare/difficult?

[sameerph]

^^^ Very unlikely for someone to come out of blue and win a medal at olympics in boxing, wrestling, weightlifting or in Javelin throw ( which is our only realistic medal hope from athletics as of now), Badminton and Hockey it is all very close and anything can happen between 5-8 who are in contention of a medal on a given day. Shooting and Archery are more random and surprise can happen from there and also somewhat in womens wrestling.

But, it can happen either way in favour of us or against us. It will get clearer as we get closer to the games.