Paris Olympics 2024 (and Paralympics'24)

[sameerph]

Nethra Kumaran secures our second quota in sailing.

Nethra Kumanan secures India’s second Paris Olympics quota in sailing

[sameerph]

@Sinhombre, if you are updating Olympics projections, need to upgrade mens archery team as they beat powerhouse Korea in Shanghai world cup and are almost sure to qualify now for Paris.

[sameerph]

Updated the qualifiers list in first post. Total of 55 qualifiers- 21 in shooting, 9 in Athletics, 5 in Badminton, 6 in Table tennis, 4 each in Boxing and Wrestling, 2 in sailing, 1 each in Hockey, Rowing, Archery and Equestrian.

At Tokyo olympics there were 76 Indian qualifiers. Looks like we are likely to exceed that number this time. Qualifications are done in Badminton (5 against 3 last time), Shooting ( 21 against 15 last time), Hockey ( 1 team against 2 last time), Table Tennis ( 6 against 4 last time), Sailing ( 2 against 3 last time), Equestrian- 1 same as last time. Also over for Fencing, where we had Bhavani Devi qualified last time, but this 3 of our fencers ( Bhavani Devi, Tanisha Khatri and Karan Singh) narrowly missed the qualification. So, out of the sports where qualifications are done, we have 36 qualifiers against 29 last time.

Remaining-
Athletics- We had 18 last time, right now we have 9 but in the end we may cross 18 after all the ranking quotas are given
Wrestling - We had 7 last time, right now we have 4, I thing we can get 2-3 more in final qualifying event to match last time tally
Boxing- We had 8 last time, right now we have 4, looks difficult to get us 4 more at last olympics qualifier, we may end up a couple short.
Archery - Currently we have only 1 qualifier- good chance that we get both teams with 6 archers qualify.
Golf- Shubankar Sharma/ Gaganjit Bhuller in men and Aditi Ashok/ Diksha Sagar in women are currently within cut off rankings- so we should equal 4 of last time
Gymnastics- we had Pranati Nayak last time- we may have 1 qualifier this time too.
Judo- We had 1 last time, we should get 1 this time too
Swimming - we had 3 last time, should get a couple this time too
Tennis- We had Sumit and Sania/Ankita pair last time, this time we should have Sumit and an Indian pair in mens doubles.

We should have around 85 this time against 76 last time.

[rajitghosh]

Badminton is 7

[sameerph]

Badminton is 7

7 players but 5 entries. 2 doubles team I have considered as 2 and not 4. Otherwise, hockey will be 16 players. if we have to count number of athletes it should ultimately go above 100 including mens hockey team.

[prasen9]

Badminton is 7

But, a chance for 5 medals. Sameer is counting the number of medals we can get (maximum). That is going to be around 85.

[jayakris]

Badminton is 7

But, a chance for 5 medals. Sameer is counting the number of medals we can get (maximum). That is going to be around 85.

He is optimistic. 85 can happen, but I would be happy with something a tad bit fewer than that. Maybe just 94% lower. 6 or 7. Even 4 or 5. I am pessimistic.

[rajitghosh]

Looking at SatChi's form in the Thomas Cup a badminton medal seems doubtful. We have the Asian events coming up. Let's see how they perform. But it seems the Chinese and Indonesians have figured them out using spin serves.

[Sin Hombre]

May 6th update by sport (changes since last full update)

Archery (after Archery world cup)
men's archery team 0.05->0.1 (won the WC beating Korea, world #2 now, will qualify)
mixed archery team 0.01->0.05 (Dheeraj and Deepika on paper should be a strong team)
women's archery team 0->0.01 (Deepika's return gives them decent chances of qualification)
Dheeraj men's recurve 0->0.05 (he is clearly top-5 in qualification, I do not trust his nerves once he gets to the last 16 or so)

Overall medal expectations 0.06 --> 0.21 (+0.15)

Athletics (Doha diamond meet on May 10 will tell us more )
Neeraj Chopra - men's javelin 0.9
Kishore Jena - men’s javelin 0.05
Avinash Sable - men's 3000m steeplechase 0.05
men's 4x400m relay 0.05->0.01 (form nowhere near last year's WC)
Murali Sreeshankar - men's long jump (0.05 --> 0) injured

Overall medal expectations 1.1 --> 1.01 (-0.09)

Badminton (after Thomas and Uber cup)
Chirag / Satwik - men's doubles badminton 0.5 (poor return since injury, only positive is they did win in France at the Olympic venue)
Lakshya Sen - men's singles badminton (0.01 --> 0.1) (welcome return to form)
HS Prannoy - men's singles badminton (0.3 --> 0.1) (terrible form though looked better at the Thomas cup)
PV Sindhu - women's singles badminton (0.05) (longshot)
Tanisha/Ashwini - women's doubles badminton (0.01) (really no chance and will need a lot of luck)

Overall medal expectations 0.86 --> 0.76 (-0.1)


Boxing (Olympic qualifiers and Strandja)
Nikhat Zareen - women's 50kg boxing 0.3 (lost in the finals at Strandja to similar ranked boxer)
Lovlina Borgohain - women's 75kg boxing 0.5-->0.3 (got disqualified at Strandja)
Parveen Hooda - women's 57kg boxing 0.05
Preeti Pawar - women's 54kg boxing 0.05-->0.01 (lost in first round at Strandja)

not qualified yet
Amit Panghal - men's 51kg boxing 0.01 (won easily in a low level field at Strandja)
Sachin Siwach - men's 57kg boxing 0.01 (won easily in a low level field at Strandja)
Arundhati Choudhary - women's 66kg boxing 0.01 (lost in split decision in finals against the world champion at Strandja)

Overall medal expectations 0.9 --> 0.69 (-0.21)

[Sin Hombre]

Hockey (after Olympic qualifiers and FIH Pro league)

men's hockey (0.5 --> 0.3) (mixed performances)
women's hockey (0.05 --> 0) (did not qualify)

Overall medal expectations 0.55 --> 0.3 (-0.25)

Golf (tour events)

Aditi Ashok 0.05
Anirban Lahiri - men's golf (0.01 --> 0) did not qualify
Diksha Dagar 0 --> 0.01 (decent form of late)

Overall medal expectations 0.06 --> 0.06 (unch)

Shooting (final Olympic qualifiers and domestic trials)

women's 50m rifle 3 positions 0.5 - Simra won both trials
mixed 10m air rifle team 0.3
men's 50m rifle 3 positions 0.3-->0.1 (Aishwary had one good event and one bad event at the trials)
mixed 10m pistol team 0.05-->0.1 (we will field 2 teams)
women's 10m air rifle 0.1 (lots of them in decent form but no one who is reliable in both qualification and finals)
women’s 10m air pistol 0.05 --> 0.1 (Rhythm is good at qualification, Esha is back looking good in finals)
women's 25m pistol 0.05->0.1 Manu and Esha are both showing decent qualification form)
men's 25m pistol (0.05->0.1 serial choker Anish has been in consistent form since he won a quota in Korea and a medal at ISSF World Cup finals and also at trials)
men's 10m rifle 0.1-->0.05 (Aishwary is not participating in the trials, others are not capable of good qualifications and finals outside of Rudrakksh who is struggling)
men's 10m pistol 0.05 (Varun Tomar in decent form and Sarabjot looks ok as well)
mixed skeet team 0-->0.01
women's skeet 0-->0.01
women's trap 0-->0.01
men's skeet 0-->0.01
men's trap 0 (we have a quota but this guy has been AWOL since)

Overall medal expectations 1.55 --> 1.54 (-0.01)

[sameerph]

I largely agree with these latest projections.

Only archery has gone up, rest all expectations have gone down. I hope we can break our drought in archery and win our first olympic medal in Paris.

In badminton, SatChi have played only 1 tournament since injury return- Thomas cup where they had 2 close wins against lower ranked pairs and 2 close losses against 9th ranked Indonesian pair and against top ranked Chinese pair. I would say they are still very much in contention. Outside chance of Lakshya or Prannoy in mens singles, do not feel much of a chance for Sindhu.

Sinhombre, I guess you still have to add wrestling, weightlifting and whatever small chance in table tennis.

[rajitghosh]

I would be worried about SatChi. The Indonesians and Chinese and using a spin serve to counter them and they don't have a good answer to it. They'll easily thrash lesser opponents but the moment they come up against exponents of the spin serve I expect them to lose.

[Atithee]

I would be worried about SatChi. The Indonesians and Chinese and using a spin serve to counter them and they don't have a good answer to it. They'll easily thrash lesser opponents but the moment they come up against exponents of the spin serve I expect them to lose.

What’s spin serve in badminton? Any videos analyzing it would be appreciated.

Edit: got my answer here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_QyPCCxriQ

I vaguely remember there used to be a serve that will result in the birdie being upside down that was banned. Was there such a thing ever or it is an old wives’ tale?

[Youtube Link Fixed. Mod, Jay]

[rajitghosh]

There was such a thing.. An Indian player in the 70s Satish Bhatia was quite good at it.

[prasen9]

But, this has been banned until the Paris Olympics. So, Rajitbabu, what are you talking about the Chinese, etc. doing that Sat-Chi find hard to return?

Spin serve banned

I think the Chinese varied their serves and did some variously spinning serves - not the diabolical spin serve above that cannot be returned reasonably. There is something called the tumble serve that they were not very good at returning. I think Matthias Boe will work things out and SatChi will also work on countering that. Whether they can do it or what is thrown at them at Paris that is new, we don't know. And, I hope we do some of these innovations ourselves.

Thomas Cup struggles of SatChi article talking about the tumble serve