Paris Olympics 2024

[sameerph]

Ok. I am ignoring the other thread which we had opened on pre-mortem and open a new one like we did last time.

And as of now these are the list of qualifiers as of now-

Athletics (12)
Neeraj Chopra (Men's Javelin throw),
Kishore Jena (Men's Javelin throw)
Akshdeep Singh (Men's 20km race walk),
Priyanka Goswami (Women's 20km race walk),
Vikas Singh (Men's 20km race walk),
Paramjeet Bisht (Men's 20km race walk),
Murali Sreeshankar (Men's long jump),
Avinash Sable (Men's 3000m steeplechase)
Parul Chaudhary (Women's 3000m steeplechase)
Suraj Panwar - Men's 20km race walk
Servin- Men's 20km race walk
Arshpreet Singh - Men's 20km race walk

Shooting (19)
Bhowneesh Mendiratta-Men’s Trap
Rudrankksh Patil-Men’s 10M Air Rifle
Swapnil Kusale-Men's 50m rifle 3 positions
Akhil Sheoran-Men's 50m rifle 3 positions
Mehuli Ghosh-Women's 10m air rifle shooting
Sift Kaur Samra-Women's 50m rifle 3 positions
Rajeshwari Kumari-Women's trap
Sarabjot Singh- Mens 10M Air pistol
Arjun Babuta- Men's 10m air rifle
Tilottama Sen - Women's 10m air rifle
Manu Bhaker - Women's 25m pistol
Anish Bhanwala - Men's 25m rapid fire pistol
Shriyanka Sadangi - Women’s 50m rifle 3 positions
Varun Tomar - Men's 10m air pistol
Esha Simgh- Women's 10m air pistol
Rhythm Sangwan - Women's 25m pistol
Vijayveer Sidhu - Men's 25m rapid fire pistol
Raiza Dhillon - Women's skeet
Anantjeet Singh Naruka - Men's skeet

Boxing (4)
Nikhat Zareen-Women's 50kg Boxing
Preeti Pawar-Women's 54kg Boxing
Parveen Hooda-Women's 57kg Boxing
Lovlina Borgohain-Women's 75kg

Wrestling (1)
Antim Panghal-Women's 53kg

Hockey (1)
Mens team

Archery (1)
Dhiraj Bommadevara

Sailing (1)
Vishnu Sarvanan

Table Tennis (6)
Mens team with 2 in mens singles
Womens team with 2 in womens singles

So, total of 45 qualified including hockey team and 3 players each in table tennis team events.

[sameerph]

We can probably keep updating the above post as more athletes qualify.

We had 122 players qualify for Tokyo olympics but that includes 16 players each from mens and womens hockey teams. So, in same way we have 37 qualified so far.

Next events lined up for qualification-

24th October to 1st November, 2023- Asian Shooting championships - 2 quota places per event are available here but one country can get only 1 quota per event. Hope we get 5-6 quotas here to add to the 5 shooters who have already qualified. Then, there will be couple more qualifying events next year.

November 3–10, 2023, 2023 Asian Archery Championships- 1 team per gender will qualify with 3 individual archers from that team. In womens team, Korea did not qualify thru world championships. So, it will be tough for anyone else to to get the team qualifying spot from here. In men, Korea and Japan have already qualified. So, we have a chance there along with China, Indonesia, Taiwan etc.

[rajitghosh]

I think along with the qualifiers mentioned above the following ones are through:

1. Sindhu
2. Lakshya
3. Prannoy
4. SatChi
5. Gayathri-Treesa (may not be 100% confirmed)
6. Bops (I hope he doesn't select Yuki as partner again)

Among these SatChi is a definite medal prospect and let's hope between Prannoy and Lakshya they can get one.

[sameerph]

All of these badminton are not technically qualified but are likely to . In race to Paris rankings, Prannoy is #2 and Lakskhya #10 in mens singles, Sindhu is #11 in womens singles. Satwik-Chirag are # 6 in mens doubles, Tresa-Gayatri are #17 - if today was qualification cut off date- they are surely in. We may even sneak in a pair in mixed doubles- Rohan Kapoor and Sikki Reddy are #30 in the list but one country can get 2 pairs only if they are both in top 8 which is the case only for China. So, cut-off may gone down to #25 or so.

But, we do not know what will happen if some of them get into pretty bad form and lose everything next April or get injured and miss 2-3 months. That is why their qualification is not certain as of today.

Same is the case with Bops as I explained in his thread.

[Dinakaran]

Mightn't be right thread, but still posting considering some relavence. Squash and cricket given approvals for 2028 LA Olympics.
Asia wise we may be strong in squash, but on global scale, Egypt is far ahead

[sameerph]

Yes, 5 sports set to be included - Cricket, Squash, Baseball, flag football and lacorsse.

Yes, in squash we are far away from being medal contenders- Our current #1 Saurav Ghosal is ranked #18 in the world and he is not going to be around till 2028. In women we do not have anyone in top 50. Unless someone like Anahat Singh turns into a top class player in 5 years, we do not have much hope there.

But. addition of cricket is good news. It could mean addition of 2 medals to our kitty.

[sameerph]

These are more details-

Cricket to make return at Los Angeles Olympics in 2028 but set to be a six-team event; no combined West Indies team

So, it is going to only be a 6 team event with 1 spot reserved for host USA. So, qualifying itself will be tough, after that it will be a medal for 3 out of 6.

[jayakris]

So, it is going to only be a 6 team event with 1 spot reserved for host USA. So, qualifying itself will be tough, after that it will be a medal for 3 out of 6.

I guess it will be 6 pool matches to pick 2 top teams each from the 3-team pools, then two SFs, a bronze medal match and a final, for 10 matches. Kinda sorta makes sense.

[arjun2761]

So really 3 medals among 5 teams since the US has no real ability in cricket.

[Kumar]

I guess it will be 6 pool matches to pick 2 top teams each from the 3-team pools, then two SFs, a bronze medal match and a final, for 10 matches. Kinda sorta makes sense.

Select the top 5 from T20 Wc in 2028 (if it is scheduled before olympics) . Semi finalist would get selected automatically and have a playin game for 5th spy among 5-8 finishers.

[Sin Hombre]

Unfortunately compound archery was NOT included for 2028.

[sameerph]

Yes, that is bad for us.

Sinhombre - are you putting up Paris Olympics projections ?

[Sin Hombre]

Yes - tomorrow. Had a busy work week.

[srini]

The jokers from Gracenote so far haven't published a full virtual medal table this year like they did in the past 5 Olympics or so. They published only Top-20 this time so far. At Tokyo 100 days before the games they projected 17 medals (4G, 5S, 8B) for us.

I think this time around finally they realized India is a outlier in sports and all parameters AI uses to predict more or less accurately for other countries won't work for India and had some one manually remove India from the Top-20 prediction AI would make. So with 'AI' being non committal on making any predictions for India onus is on 'SI' to come up with predictions . So Good luck to Sin Hombre and Sameer in leading this effort.

My few cents to that effort. These are the medals by sport we had at Tokyo. I don't think we will be getting any medals in any new sport (except a minuscule chance in shooting.) So we can limit the work by deeper analysis of the same sports we get medals.

Code: Select all

Medals by sport
	Sport	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
 Athletics	1	0	0	1
 Badminton	0	0	1	1
 Boxing		0	0	1	1
 Field hockey	0	0	1	1
 Weightlifting	0	1	0	1
 Wrestling	0	1	1	2
Total		1	2	4	7

Athletics : Only medal chance in Javelin with the possibility that color may only be of lesser hue.
Badminton : There may be better prospect of medal increase and hue due to MD and some chance in MS and a remote chance in WD (based on how the young WD pair of Gayatri-Treesa pans out in the runup) . No chance in WS this time.
Boxing : Medal hue may improve but count may remain same.
Field Hockey : At same level as before.
Weight lifting : We had only chance in Womens weighlifting, but now with North Korea making a comeback i don't see any chance of medal as we are not even in medals at Asia level.
Wrestling : Fed mess has caused us to regress but still hopeful of a bronze for Antim.


Total 5-6 medals ? Expect 2024 to be one of those Olympics like 2016 when we managed to come down in medal count!

[rajitghosh]

I think the estimate is pretty accurate. Do Aman Sehrawat or Deepak Punia have an outside chance?
And with a new coach can Sindhu work a miracle? At least one thing Sindhu doesn't lack is big match temparament.
Do we have a realistic change in shooting or is it best to shoot the shooters before they board the flight?
I don't expect anything from Gayathri-Treesa. Our best chance is in MD with an outside chance in MS.