IMEC is effectively dead

[Saffron Lenin]

Not sure why USA had to announce it as the corridor isn’t even connecting them.

Because USA is a superpower and has a significant influence in Middle East including a lot of USA's military base in Middle East!!

[prasen9]

Something that is based on wishful thinking is not a serious project. But, these crazy ideas should be thought of and maybe some day will happen. It is not a loss for India since there was nothing there to begin with. And, Saudi-Israel relationship has a lot of hurdles to become ground reality. And, in this region, everything is volatile. The serious people knew. No harm trying and laying the groundwork even if it may come to fruition in 30 years or whatever though. No big loss. Saudi may still wait a year and then normalize relations with Israel.

[Saffron Lenin]

Another good article published by The Hindu:

Israel, Hamas conflict casts shadow on ambitious economic initiatives: official
It is understood that attracting private investment to mega regional initiatives may become difficult if widespread conflict and destruction continue in Israel and Gaza Strip

ty Images

The extraordinary level of hostilities between Israel and Hamas are expected to cast a shadow on two of the major initiatives that the country has launched with India and other stakeholders. A highly placed source here said that both the I2U2 (India, Israel, US. .and United Arab Emirates) and IMEC (India Middle East EU Economic Corridor) that were aimed at creating new partnerships for India’s post-COVID economic plans are expected to suffer because of the Hamas attack on Israel.

The I2U2 was planning to begin food parks in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh and was expected to focus on a hybrid renewable energy project in Gujarat. The July 2022 statement mentioned that the US would invest $2 billion in Indian projects that are backed by Israeli technology. The ambitious initiative was being viewed as an outcome of the Abraham Accords of September 15, 2020 that was aimed at creating conditions of cooperation between Israel and Arab states like the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 400579.ece

[arjun2761]

It was more of a PR exercise anyway. Not sure why USA had to announce it as the corridor isn’t even connecting them. It was purely a response to the belt and road China initiative. Not sure how serious the project was to begin with. Nonetheless, it isn’t good for India.

Agreed -- this is mostly PR. India is hardly a goods supplier of any quality, so highly doubt that European markets would be looking for our shoddy manufactured goods. Our exports to Europe (and North America) is mostly services and people. Likewise, it should not affect our supplies to the Middle East where we may supply some goods and lots of people but Israel isn't in the path to that.

We may also supply stuff to Africa but again there is no need to go through Israel (or the Mediterranean for that). Similarly to North America, we can easily go from our eastern ports to the west coast of the US and not seeing any real need for the Israel/Mediterranean route. Our biggest infrastructure bottleneck is within India even if we could produce goods that were competitive and in demand outside of developing countries.

[Sin Hombre]

More than IMEC, what the USA and to a lower extent India have been pushing for is more normalization of relations between Israel and Saudis which is good for us geopolitically.

This is what Hamas as an extension of Iran doesn’t work.

[rajitghosh]

Not sure the story about Indian exports not being great is entirely correct. India is doing extremely well in auto component exports and in automobiles especially 2 wheelers and tractors. Many Indian companies have achieved global scale. Same in pharma generics and certain speciality chemicals.
In automobiles and auto components Indian owned companies like Mahindra, TVS group, Balkrishna Tyres, Bharat Forge, Motherson Sumi have achieved both scale and quality at global level. Many have won the Deming prize. Then we have the MNCs operating export plants out of India. Middle East and Israel are important stakeholders for many of them.

[Saffron Lenin]

Hamas prepared for a ‘long war’ with Israel, as concerns for hostages in Gaza grow

Hamas is ready to fight a long war with Israel and will use the dozens of hostages being held in Gaza to secure the release of Palestinians detained in Israel and overseas, a senior member of the militant group has said.

In response to the attack, Israel has launched strikes from the air and sea, which medics said had killed more than 680 Palestinians in Gaza, an area home to 2.3 million people with nowhere to flee. Israel has since declared a “complete siege” of Gaza, cutting off water, food and power supplies.


Israel formally declared war on Sunday and called up 300,000 reservists for duty, signalling a possible ground assault into Gaza – a move that in the past has always brought further bloodshed. However, Israeli forces face the unprecedented task of fighting an urban war while dozens of hostages are likely to be hidden in tunnels and basements across the Gaza Strip.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... -gaza-grow

[arjun2761]

Not sure the story about Indian exports not being great is entirely correct. India is doing extremely well in auto component exports and in automobiles especially 2 wheelers and tractors. Many Indian companies have achieved global scale. Same in pharma generics and certain speciality chemicals.
In automobiles and auto components Indian owned companies like Mahindra, TVS group, Balkrishna Tyres, Bharat Forge, Motherson Sumi have achieved both scale and quality at global level. Many have won the Deming prize. Then we have the MNCs operating export plants out of India. Middle East and Israel are important stakeholders for many of them.

That is good to see. However, how much of this is sales to Europe which would benefit from this corridor versus sales to Africa, Middle East, and other parts of Asia which we can reach quite effectively without this corridor.

Have definitely seen India as a major generic supplier (with Israel), so perhaps that is a sector that may benefit some from this.

With respect to MNCs, producing in India is definitely something many are exploring but not sure if much of it is being shipped back to US/Europe. For example, Apple is making iPhones in India through its foundry (Foxconn) but my understanding is that is mostly targeted to the Indian market. At least for the US, the popular alternate manufacturing sites appear to be Mexico and SE Asian countries (such as Vietnam).

[jayakris]

There is a lot of stuff of good quality that India can sell abroad. It is not just phones and cars and high quality high-tech stuff that people need in Europe and the middle east. It is also toys, clothes, packaged food, rice/wheat, cereals, phramaceuticals, dairy products, so on and so forth. Pipes, valves, pumps, construction machinery, and general nuts and bolts stuff are all things India can export and do (and they are of good quality too). Heck, even manhole covers!

[arjun2761]

https://tradingeconomics.com/india/expo ... ted-states

Interesting list of Indian exports to the US in 2022. Surprised that diamonds and jewelry are our top export. Machinery and electrical equipment is also pretty big behind pharmaceuticals (mostly generics). Also surprisingly India exports refined petroleum products even though India is a substantial importer of crude oil.

[rajitghosh]

Not sure the story about Indian exports not being great is entirely correct. India is doing extremely well in auto component exports and in automobiles especially 2 wheelers and tractors. Many Indian companies have achieved global scale. Same in pharma generics and certain speciality chemicals.
In automobiles and auto components Indian owned companies like Mahindra, TVS group, Balkrishna Tyres, Bharat Forge, Motherson Sumi have achieved both scale and quality at global level. Many have won the Deming prize. Then we have the MNCs operating export plants out of India. Middle East and Israel are important stakeholders for many of them.

That is good to see. However, how much of this is sales to Europe which would benefit from this corridor versus sales to Africa, Middle East, and other parts of Asia which we can reach quite effectively without this corridor.

Have definitely seen India as a major generic supplier (with Israel), so perhaps that is a sector that may benefit some from this.

With respect to MNCs, producing in India is definitely something many are exploring but not sure if much of it is being shipped back to US/Europe. For example, Apple is making iPhones in India through its foundry (Foxconn) but my understanding is that is mostly targeted to the Indian market. At least for the US, the popular alternate manufacturing sites appear to be Mexico and SE Asian countries (such as Vietnam).

Large portion of auto industry exports is to USA and Europe. In fact developing countries would be less.

[Saffron Lenin]

IMEC Hangs by a Thread as Israel’s War on Hamas Disrupts Peace Initiatives

Hamas’s unexpected assault on Israel and Israel’s swift and unforgiving retaliation could potentially disrupt significant Middle East initiatives, including the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which was inaugurated last month during the G20 Summit in New Delhi. The United States has been advocating for improved relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel and establishing an economic corridor from India to Europe that would traverse the Middle East. But the future of these endeavours now remains uncertain as Tel-Aviv has declared war on the militant grouping and is carrying out unrelenting airstrikes on the Gaza Strip in response to the deadliest attack by Hamas on Israel in half a century.

“The prospects for US plans regarding the IMEC—or, in the broader context, Saudi-Israel peace— now appear uncertain,” a geopolitical analyst has pointed out.

https://frontierindia.com/imec-hangs-by ... ves/?amp=1

[Saffron Lenin]

I can't understand why media is continuously saying that this attack by Hamas is after 2 years of preparation!!!!! G20 was happened just 2 weeks ago and Imec was announced at that time!! The IMEC may be in discussion (in backchannels) since few months but definitely not 2 year!!!
The sole winner of this war is definitely China!!!! This war has killed IMEC and now we have nothing to counter China's BRI!!!

I am seriously considering the possibility that this whole Israel-Gaza fiasco is engineered by China to stop peace deal between Saudi and Israel and thus sabotaging IMEC.

[Atithee]

^^IMEC is a mosquito. No one really cares about it. It was just a PR exercise.

Your second point is likely the smoking gun. The whole Israel recognition movement was unpalatable to a section of the locals and it likely would have put the Palestine cause on a back burner for good.

Not sure China cares much. They certainly don’t care about IMEC. So, it’s not about IMEC at all. Stop deluding yourself. Even Indians don’t think much of it.

[jayakris]

I am seriously considering the possibility that this whole Israel-Gaza fiasco is engineered by China to stop peace deal between Saudi and Israel and thus sabotaging IMEC.

It was almost certainly engineered to stop the Saudi-Israel deal. But not by China, and definitely not because China takes IMEC all that seriously. It was done by a host of middle-east folks (quite possibly led by Iran, but tacitly supported by a lot of others, and maybe 90 perent of the people in the middle east). They just did not want Israel to get established as a country whom key Mulsim countries like S.Arabia may treat like a normal country. They just could not afford that. They needed the Palestinian issue be there, and they needed Palestinians to continue to suffer, so they could point to that suffering and ask for Israel to not exist. Hamas and their supporters surely knew that Israel would do what they are doing now. They didn't care one bit about the suffering the people in Gaza strip would undergo, when they started this off.

Horrible thinking by a lot of people. And no Mahatma, Martin Luther or Mandela to be found anywhere to find a way to put an end to it.

[PS: We shouldn't be bothered about the IMEC deal, when people are suffering like this. That is so selfish on our part, no? I will be perfectly happy, even ecstatic, if the Palestinian problem could be solved by canning the IMEC. But of course it can't be]