IMEC is effectively dead

[Saffron Lenin]

'India-Middle East-Economic Corridor is effectively dead': Fears grow as Israel declares war on Hamas

The US has been pushing for normalisation of the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and an economic corridor from India to Europe that will pass through the Middle East. The fate of these two now hangs in balance as Tel Aviv has declared war, and is bombarding the Gaza Strip following the deadliest attack in years by the militant organisation Hamas on Israel.

The IMEC has been dubbed as a counter to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, as Israel has now caught into a bloody war, many suspect that this corridor will take off from here. SL Kanthan, a geopolitical analyst, said that Israel has cut off electricity to the Gaza Strip, and Israeli/American F-35 jets are bombing the region. "Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Qatar have voiced support for Hamas. The US plans for IMEC corridor or Saudi-Israel peace now don't look promising."

https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/wor ... 2023-10-08

[prasen9]

This is possibly some B.S. Why exactly do we have to go to Europe via Israel and not say via Turkey? We pretty much have to get out through Pakistan or in the North through China, which is more remote. Then, we have to either go through Afghanistan, Iran. Or go through Kazhakstan. But, either way how do you avoid Iran or Russia? What really was the plan? This seems some pipe-dream that is being proposed.

[Saffron Lenin]

This seems some pipe-dream that is being proposed.

The plan was signed at G20 meeting to counter China's BRI... Peace deal between Saudi and Israel was important part of it to create a new trade route!!
Now, this peace deal will be derailed resulting of sabotaging of IMEC!!!

[Saffron Lenin]

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/op ... 296263.ece

[prasen9]

Ok, so this is dead? Then, just go through Jordan, Lebanon, or Turkey. In fact, for any such routes, depending on one fixed route will mean this has a single point of failure. So, multiple options is a better deal.

[Saffron Lenin]

Ok, so this is dead? Then, just go through Jordan, Lebanon, or Turkey. In fact, for any such routes, depending on one fixed route will mean this has a single point of failure. So, multiple options is a better deal.

Lebanon is in the camp of Iran and Syria in Middle east, so not possible!!! In fact, this attack on Israel is supplemented by hizbullah (who controls Lebanon)

Basically, in Middle east, there are 4 main players:
1-Israel- USA
2-Iran, Syria and Lebanon
3-Saudi and Gulf
4-Turkey ( who is part of NATO for just for name sake- credit goes to khalifa Erdogan)

Each has its geopolitical interests and compulsions!!!

[prasen9]

I have been to Lebanon. Hezbollah has only parts of Lebanon under "control". The government of Lebanon is maybe friendly to Iran but certainly not controlled by Iran, to the extent I know. About 60% of the people of Lebanon do not like or do not want to align with Iran and about 40% are pro-Irani. Anyway, find a way through Jordan or Turkey then.

[Saffron Lenin]

I have been to Lebanon. Hezbollah has only parts of Lebanon under "control". The government of Lebanon is maybe friendly to Iran but certainly not controlled by Iran, to the extent I know. About 60% of the people of Lebanon do not like or do not want to align with Iran and about 40% are pro-Irani. Anyway, find a way through Jordan or Turkey then.

As far as I know, Lebanon government is pro-iran ( I can't say of people)... Turkiye is part of NATO but not in good list of USA because of Erdogan ( I think they put Turkiye in grey list of FATF) ......Jordon, I am not sure but may be Jordon is not possible because it don't have sea access to reach Europe !!

[prasen9]

Saudi and Haifa - if you are going via land, you are going through Jordan but you are right, they do not have access to the Mediterannean Sea. They have Aqaba on the Red Sea. Then, you have to go through the Suez Canal.

The U.S. has decent relations with Lebanon with some investment and trade. Last year, treaty signed. Anyway, if we want a link to Europe, I think Lebanon also has good relations with France. In fact, France is one of Lebanon's main political partners. It is not a vassal state of Iran.

None of these relationships are super-tight but they are much better than the Saudi-Israel relationship that people were putting all their eggs in.

[Saffron Lenin]

The U.S. has decent relations with Lebanon with some investment and trade.

Decent but not good enough to let such a geo-strategically important route pass through it!!

[Saffron Lenin]

There may be many other factors unknown to us why USA-India chosen the route as described in IMEC!!

[Saffron Lenin]

But the current situation is that this new israel-palestine conflict has put saudi- israel peace deal on hold thus effectively killing IMEC as of now!!

[prasen9]

There may be many other factors unknown to us why USA-India chosen the route as described in IMEC!!

UAE, Saudi, Jordan, and Israel, which was the route chosen, are maybe the only stable countries in the region somewhat likely to be friendly for whatever reason and not the others.

[Saffron Lenin]

Sadly, IMEC is derailed

A huge geo-political loss for India!!

[Atithee]

It was more of a PR exercise anyway. Not sure why USA had to announce it as the corridor isn’t even connecting them. It was purely a response to the belt and road China initiative. Not sure how serious the project was to begin with. Nonetheless, it isn’t good for India.