Fide world cup 2023, Azerbaijan

[Sin Hombre]

Arjun will play #53 Grandelius in the last 16 which is a very nice draw for him.

Vidit will play the winner of Nihal and Nepo. Hopefully Nihal can pull through but Nepo is also a top player in the faster time controls in rapid and blitz.

[Saffron Lenin]

Guys. Pragg just defeated world no 2 Hikaru Nakamura of United States in tie break by 2-0 and knock him out

[arjun2761]

Gukesh wins as well. So 4 Indians in Open R-16.

Harika also makes QF, the only Indian to do so.

[Sin Hombre]

There are 3 Candidates spots from this WC. With Magnus not caring about the World championship and Nepo getting a direct spot, it is very likely that getting to the semifinals will be enough.

Hopefully we will see our first Candidate after Anand.

4 in the last 16 is the most for any country as well.

Gukesh (#8) vs Wang Hao (#41) - Gukesh is the clear rating and form favourite though Wang Hao has reached the Candidates previously and was very strong before retiring and then un-retiring. Winner of this tie will likely play Magnus in the quarters.

Vidit (#23) vs Nepo (#6) - Nepo is in good form and the clear rating favourite. Very hard to see Vidit progress but if he does beat Nepo, he will have a much easier QF.

Arjun (#32) vs Grandelius (#53) - as easy a draw as Arjun could hope for in the last 16 though Nils did beat Arjun in their last encounter and the rating gap is lesser than the prior 2 matches.

Pragg (#27) vs Ferenc (#156) - Pragg's reward for beating #2 Nakamura is literally the lowest rated player left in the draw. And the winner of this tie plays Arjun/Grandelius which is again a winnable tie.

Hopefully we see Arjun vs Pragg quarters guaranteeing an Indian semifinalist (and likely Candidate) and at least one of Gukesh and Vidit make it to the last 8. Hoping for 3 in the last 8.

[Sin Hombre]

Gukesh and Arjun win with black and should make it through to the quarters. Pragg with a draw with black and Vidit drew with white against Nepo.

Gukesh had an equal opening and then squeezed out a small advantage in the middle game before Wang Hao collapsed in time trouble. Gukesh has just gotten so good against non-top 10 players and moves up to #7 in the live rankings. Unfortunately Magnus also won his first game and Gukesh will have to beat Magnus in the quarters to get to the Candidates.

Arjun's win was actually very Magnus-esque, equal endgame but small positional advantage that he squeezed out.

Berkes played very solid with white against Pragg, interesting to see how adventurous Pragg will be tomorrow with white.

[Sin Hombre]

Pragg beat Berkes with white, and Arjun and Gukesh drew with white easily so we have 3 Indians in the last 8. Vidit, like Nihal, drew in classical against Nepo and off we go to the rapid tiebreaks tomorrow.

So, we do have Gukesh vs Magnus and Arjun vs Pragg in the last 8.

Assuming Magnus won't play in the Candidates (99% likely), we will have the first Indian to qualify for the candidates after Anand!

There are 3 Candidate spots from this tournament. If Magnus beats Gukesh, then semifinals will be enough to secure a spot since Magnus will give up his spot. If he loses, we have 2 semifinalists and at least one will finish in the top-3. And this is assuming Vidit doesn't beat Nepo in the tiebreaks.

[Saffron Lenin]

Pragg beat Berkes with white, and Arjun and Gukesh drew with white easily so we have 3 Indians in the last 8. Vidit, like Nihal, drew in classical against Nepo and off we go to the rapid tiebreaks tomorrow.

So, we do have Gukesh vs Magnus and Arjun vs Pragg in the last 8.

Assuming Magnus won't play in the Candidates (99% likely), we will have the first Indian to qualify for the candidates after Anand!

There are 3 Candidate spots from this tournament. If Magnus beats Gukesh, then semifinals will be enough to secure a spot since Magnus will give up his spot. If he loses, we have 2 semifinalists and at least one will finish in the top-3. And this is assuming Vidit doesn't beat Nepo in the tiebreaks.

No buddy. There is some confusion.... Magnus has not still qualified for the candidates ( as the qualifying date for candidates via ranking is Jan 2024) So if magnus finishes in top 4, then he will qualify for candidates and then if he refuse to play at candidates, then the spot will go to player via ranking list as of jan 2024.
On the other hand, if Nepo finishes in top 4, then spot will go to guy finishing 4th in the world cup (as Nepo already qualified for candidates)
Chess base india's Sagar shah read the rule book during the stream( the rules were very complicately written) but what I get from what he was saying is that Magnus finishing in top 4 will not guarantee canditates spot as he had not qualified yet!!

[Sin Hombre]

You are confused about what is being said.

Assuming Magnus does not want to play in the Candidates (qualified or not), which he likely doesn't given he gave up his world crown, at least one Indian will get a Candidate spot from this world cup guaranteed.

To make it even more simpler, at least one spot from this tournament will go to Magnus/Gukesh/Arjun/Pragg.

[Dinakaran]

I also believe it is still not confirmed. If one Indian goes to semi and looses, then it will be filled by candidates rules, which is again based on ranking. If Nepo goes to semi and 1 Indian looses in semi, then 1 candidate is confirmed.

[Saffron Lenin]

I also believe it is still not confirmed. If one Indian goes to semi and looses, then it will be filled by candidates rules, which is again based on ranking. If Nepo goes to semi and 1 Indian looses in semi, then 1 candidate is confirmed.

Absolutely!!!!That is what I am saying..

[Saffron Lenin]

Vidit beats Nepo to qualify for quarterfinals while Harika lost to world no 2 Goryachkina!!

[Saffron Lenin]

We have 4 Indians in open section in Quaters!!

[prasen9]

Well, Nepo has been nipped. Magnus may still decide to play. So, we need a few more wins. But, if Magnus does not play, then Sin Hombre is saying that this tournament's ordering is the sole criterion and the semifinalists will qualify. Others are saying that this tournament's ordering will be used, which would mean Magnus gets a slot. But, if Magnus does not play, then the replacement will be using the ranking and not this tournment's next in line. Hmm. Who is right?

[Sin Hombre]

I also believe it is still not confirmed. If one Indian goes to semi and looses, then it will be filled by candidates rules, which is again based on ranking. If Nepo goes to semi and 1 Indian looses in semi, then 1 candidate is confirmed.

Lose, not loose.

Also this is incorrect. Chessbase India that saffron watched but did not comprehend even had an article about this (before Vidit's tiebreaks)

Worst Case scenario
Imagine that Vidit loses his match either to Nepo or Abasov and Gukesh loses to Carlsen. Now we have only one Indian Pragg/Arjun in the final four. If Nepo has beaten Vidit and Abasov then he is through to the Semi-Finals to face Carlsen and as he has already qualified to the Candidates 2024 via the World Championship Runner-up spot then the next 3 in the event get a chance. So if Nepo is through to the top 4, then Pragg/Arjun will be through to the Candidates 2024. However, if Nepo doesn't make it to the semis, and in the worst case scenario the final four would be Carlsen, Abasov, Fabi/Dominguez and Pragg/Arjun. Imagine the Pragg/Arjun spot loses to Fabi/Dominguez in the Semis and then also for the 3rd-4th place match, then Carlsen is bound to finish in top 3. If that happens, then the Reserve Clause above kicks in which says If someone has qualified to the Candidates 2024 through the World Cup and withdraws from the Candidates, then this spot goes to player who finished 4th.

https://chessbase.in/news/Indians-at-Candidates-2024

[Sin Hombre]

Anyways, previewing the quarterfinals

Magnus (#1) vs Gukesh (#7) is the blockbuster clash between a top-2 player of all-time and one of the two great prodigies of the next generation. Magnus is the clear favourite.

Vidit (#23) vs Abasov (#70) - Vidit is the clear rating favourite but Abasov has home support and has been on a great run. Vidit also hasn't gotten much rest by getting pulled into the tiebreaks, and will be under pressure - there is an argument to be had that this is the most important set of games in his career.

Pragg (#24) vs Arjun (#29) - Pragg will the slight favourite and a win here will help get going on a Gukesh trajectory.

I'll take 2 in the last 4.