Indo-Pak issues, terrorism, Kashmir, etc.

[prasen9]

We need a world government. Instead of dismantling the U.N., we should come together and have a proper world governance and court. We have that in sports, the CAS and it has largely worked. The whole structure of the U.N. is flawed in it having veto power, etc. That is just nonsense. Currently, we have vigilantism and general lawlessness when it comes to international affairs.

[arjun2761]

Who is going to run the proper world governance and court? We'd have to discover some extra-terrestrials.

[prasen9]

Well, people. We in the reality-based world use real people to run national governments and courts. Extra-terrestials, of course, run things in fantasy worlds. Don't get me wrong, the ability to create fantasies is one of man's greatest abilities that I greatly admire Coming back to reality, how we run CAS can be how we run courts and governments. A simple formulation could be population-based representation where each country can elect or nominate their representatives, each country at least contributes one member or groups of countries contribute one member where there are lots of small countries, and the courts are filled by some method, usually an executive appoints. We have a world police/military that keeps peace when war breaks out. It would possibly be so powerful that people will not dare to start wars against them just as no state police/reserve force usually can fight against their national government.

The exact design other people have thought and written about. It can happen if we want it to happen. Perhaps will not happen in my lifetime. But, a few hundred years ago, we used to have small feudal and princely states and there was constant fighting between them to enlarge or change their territorial holdings. We have consolidated things into larger nations now in most areas of the world. So, maybe it will take a few centuries and some more devastation before we decide to create something like a world government.

The thing is that if NATO comes to defend Ukraine, Russia will possibly attack Europe. So, NATO does not want to go in so as not to escalate the war. If there was a world peace-keeping force that comes into help Ukraine, who will Russia attack? Possibly some hapless country but they would be wary about fighting on multiple fronts.

[srini]

It can happen if we want it to happen. Perhaps will not happen in my lifetime.

Wars like this can precipitate things to happen! So not only be prepared to see it happen in this lifetime but in the next few weeks or months time if Putin guy gets ticked off by the military supplies provided to Ukraine by NATO and does something silly by hitting the military supply routes to Ukraine in Poland, Romania etc. We are for sure in an uncharted times...US invading Iraq,Afghan were different, it got away doing that without attracting any sanctions. When Russia intevened in Syrian civil war in 2015 to rollback any advances made by US supported terrorist factions it was after US troops started trying to withdraw.Even then it attracted santions from US and allies for doing that but not crippling sanction like the ones its facing now.The hypocrte Western media was grossly insensitive to the plight of Syrian refugees but overtly emotional about the plight of Ukranian refugees now, so that media is compelled by the need to publicise the "military" support West is providing for Ukraine "to defend itself".I won't be surprised if all this "support" of Ukranian democracy is not going to spiral itself into a bigger,expanding conflict soon.Expect Belarus by choice and a few other eastern eurpean nations getting dragged into it not by their choice.

So if a world sees the real need for a world government after that kind of devastation,hopefully past mistakes like "Veto" will be corrected and atleast a peace keeping force that is bound by its charter to automatically retaliate any invasion including those by the US or Russia alike will be created. And all countries should lose access to their own miliary satilite data and instead this peacekeeping force should get that data. Inspite of all this, there will still be conflicts around the world not involving international boarders but about lines of control of their individual perceptions. But atleast those conflicts would be limited and localized in nature involving only national militaries(which signed up for it anyway) not involving loss of civilian lives.

[VReddy]

Jay - this is for you. https://www.timesnownews.com/india/clea ... e-94074222

The Joe Biden administration's decision to approve $450 million in equipment for Pakistan's F-16 fighter fleet is a sign that the 'US is giving them capabilities to match India', said G Parthasarathy, former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan. Adding that the US move has been designed to 'give Pakistan an edge on fighting capabilities', Parthasarathy said that New Delhi should take up the matter with Washington and a message should be sent to the US not just in terms of political signalling but even in terms of action.

"Those aircraft have advanced radar and missile capabilities. This is very clearly designed to give Pakistan an edge on fighting capabilities," Parthasarthy said

[Atithee]

No posts on the Pahalgam massacre yet? Very sad to see it unfold. The region is on tenterhooks. While there is no evidence of Pakistani involvement, it is hard to imagine how they cannot be involved in some way even if not directly unless one subscribes to “wag the dog” type of conspiracy.

[jayakris]

Okay, changed the title of the thread to "Indo-Pak issues". Didn't check if there was an older thread for this. Will check later and merge with this. This thread was started by prasen when India fired a Brahmos missile by mistake into Pakistan.

But any discussion on the horrible massacre of innocent Hindu tourists in Pahalgam by Islamist terrorists can be discussed here, as at least India says that Pakistan was behind it.

[prasen9]

No posts on the Pahalgam massacre yet? Very sad to see it unfold. The region is on tenterhooks. While there is no evidence of Pakistani involvement, it is hard to imagine how they cannot be involved in some way even if not directly unless one subscribes to “wag the dog” type of conspiracy.

There is a segment of Kashmiris - Muslims predominantly if not wholly - who want a free Kashmir. While Pakistan has been abetting most of them, if we just focus on Pakistan, we run the risk of the Kashmiris who are against the land being under Indian control (partly). Quite a lot of them are also against Pakistani and Chinese control of the area. Most of these people are aided by Pakistan because they have the same goals at least on this side of the Kashmir partition but it is quite possible for these groups to by doing things on their own as the Khalistanis did although several of them were aided indirectly at leastly by Pakistan.

[arjun2761]

While I don't doubt that there are some muslims in Kashmir (and likely in other parts of India) that sympathize with Pakistan and are disloyal Indians, there is no doubt that Pakistan is steeped in supporting terrorist groups who are an essential part of their foreign policy and the purpose of that dysfunctional nation's government. See, for e.g. -
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advic ... d-security

No doubt there are individuals in Pakistan that are good people and may like Indians individually but there is no part of their nation state that is worthy of anything but contempt.

[Atithee]

Self-incrimination by Pakistani defense minister? At 10:00 mark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ir8pJbKE37U

[srini]

While Pehelgam Baisaran valley attack on Hindu tourists was an intelligence failure just like the Hamas attack on those participating at Nova music festival in Israel, we are getting to see how differently the 2 countries India and Israel respond.

In the case of Israel even a kindergartener could tell on Day-1 that there would be a strong response from Israel.
In the case of India one can never say for sure if there would be a response and if there is one how strong it will be.After all terror attacks there will be lot of posturing followed by inaction when there were Congress governments as happened after 26/11 and from 2014 when BJP came to power, there was some drama with no real consequences like surgical strikes 1 after Uri attack and Balakot strikes after Pulwama.

While the Baisaran attack may not have been preventable with lot of pine forest around the valley, the response could have been quicker. There must be choppers available to airlift the responders (medical and military personnel) with in minutes to the place. India should quickly conclude its investigation and nab atleast some of the terrorists who were involved and if it can find any proof of Pakistan army or establishment's complicity that should be shared with world and then ask the Pakistan government to hand over the culprits.Any military action like attacking any terror camps should follow only if Pakistan doesn't comply with (which is highly likely).

2019 Balakot mis adventure clearly established Pakistan airforce supremacy over its Indian counterpart which was struggling with its outdated aircrafts like MIG and Mirage fighters and luckily for us ended with Abhinandan's 'capture and return' which resulted in a de-escalation. It was an eye opener for Indian government and made it pursue for a swift procurement of Rafale fighters which might slightly tilt the scales in India favour in my assessment.

I am not liking the measures taken by Indian government so far like suspension of Indus water Treaty and reports (if true) of releasing Jheelum water causing flooding in Pakistan.India shouldn't be doing things it accuses China of (water bomb) especially if civilians are affected more than Pak military.

India should take cue from Israel which responded by identifying and destroying the terror camps and how it ferreted out the terrorists like Sinwar from hiding and hunted them. Its response was prompt, dis-proportionate and decisive.It was accused of causing lot of collateral damage...true, it had lot of civilian casualities that could have been avoidable( or were probably intended to bring pressure from within Palastine public on its extremists) but i guess there is no denying the justice for its Hamas attack victims. I suspect the same cannot be expected to happen unfortunately in case of the Pehelgam Hindu tourist victims.

[jayakris]

By the way, India should NOT resort to violating the terms of the Indus agreement, even if the agreement is suspended now. Keep the threat on, but violating it and causing flood or drought in Pakistan is the easiest way to lose any sympathy the world is giving India now. Even if we don't do anything, I can bet that Pakistan will soon kick up a ruckus about somebody drowning somewhere because of water rise in Jhelum without notice. Those sneaky bugs are great at playing victim.

[prasen9]

One can always give notice publicly. But, we can announce a time after which we will not adhere to it, need to renegotiate it, etc. The World Bank is the one who is the arbiter. We cannot cut off our nose to spite it. So, we should play as much hardball as we can without jeopardizing our own WB loans, etc.

[Atithee]

Jay, when should India respond with all its might? If Mumbai, parliament attack, Uri, Pulwama, Pathankot, etc. weren’t serious enough, what could be the trigger event? Assassination of a high value target? Because that’s all there’s left.

Did you know many of the 83k Indian women are lined up at Wagah border as they are married to Pakistanis; yet, they and some of their children carry Indian passports. I was shocked at the number. This is a scary statistic. Talk about sleeper cells. With 30 crore Muslims in India, why are these women finding husbands in Pakistan?

World opinion isn’t really in India’s favor. They have no sympathy for India. They only care about its market size. No one wants a war—this is what Pakistan counts on and has developed itself into a security state sacrificing its economic progress. Sometimes, a bluff has to be called. Of course, it’s easy for me to wish this when I don’t even live in India. It’d be a disaster for the subcontinent and the world.

[jayakris]

Jay, when should India respond with all its might? If Mumbai, parliament attack, Uri, Pulwama, Pathankot, etc. weren’t serious enough, what could be the trigger event? Assassination of a high value target? Because that’s all there’s left.

India can respond. I didn't say we shouldn't. But war crimes do not be committed hastily. Cutting off food and water to a country is long held as a clear war crime. The Indus water treaty was made for that and even when we went to war with Pakistan multiple times after that, we did not touch that Pandora's box. Suspending the treaty is all fine. But do not violate any part of that treaty that is meant to prevent war crime actions. I mean, there is nothing wrong in India building water diversion infrastructure (which itself is prohibited by the treaty for the most part) -- but using it and actually choking 200 M people's lives is not a small thing. India will never be able to explain it away after that. Because no country has done something something like that in the past (but I don't know if any other country is so dependent on a rival like Pakistan is, on India, when it comes to water for 200M people's lives). Hiroshima/Nagasaki, perhaps the worst war crime ever on innocent people, pales to insignificance against this.

Threaten to do it, by suspending it and building infrastructure on our side, but let the water flow as per the treaty for now. Playing with Indus water is much worse than a "nuclear option"