The Sports-India Community

Four world championships taking place this month -

2019 AIBA World Boxing Championships - 9-21 Sept, Russia
2019 World Weightlifting Championships- 16-25 Sept, Pattaya, Thailand
2019 World Wrestling Championships - 14-22 Sept, Nur-Sulatan, Kazakhstan
2019 World Athletics Championships- 28 Sept- 6 Oct, Doha, Qatar

Only wrestling world championships has direct quotas for Tokyo olympics. Other 3 events count for ranking points which may eventually land a place in Tokyo olympics.

Would like the performances of Indian players particularly in first 3 events. Then, we can update our medal projections list.

Are we tracking this Sreeshankar in long jump and think he may not even make finals? I was not aware he did a 8.2m, was following only until Asian games where he did 7.95m.

https://m.mensxp.com/sports/other-sport ... -2020.html

Re: Sreeshankar - His outdoor best of 8.00m in 2019 is #66 in the world. His world ranking is better at #31. Looks like less of a medal prospect in 2020 than even our male badminton players...

arjun2761 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:25 am Re: Sreeshankar - His outdoor best of 8.00m in 2019 is #66 in the world.

So, that 8.2m at nationals an effect of organic spinach?

The thing with Sreeshankar is he has changed his technique after that 8:20 jump and he has yet to adjust completely. We have to see how he adjusts. Same with Tejaswin shankar in high jump who has yet to reach his PB,NR after his technique change.

Is technique change an euphemism for spinach now?

depleter wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:04 am The thing with Sreeshankar is he has changed his technique after that 8:20 jump and he has yet to adjust completely. We have to see how he adjusts. Same with Tejaswin shankar in high jump who has yet to reach his PB,NR after his technique change.

Tejaswin's best in 2019 of 2.27m puts him at #27 for the year. So he is a little closer to the best but is not a serious contender for a medal in 2020.

sameerph wrote: ↑Sun Jul 28, 2019 3:57 pm It does appear to be based on event-based and individual-based analysis. This is a detailed article on this-

Is India ready to make telling impact on the Olympic stage?

They seem to be predicting 4 medals in wrestling, 5 in shooting, 3 in boxing and 1 each in archery and weightlifting.

3 World championship medals yesterday, with may be 3 more today - Pooja, Bajrang and Mirabai....when has this ever happened.........
May be Gracenote might be right

Sin Hombre wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:52 am Is technique change an euphemism for spinach now?

Any Euphemism chosen should also be able to convey other things we want to know.If we use spinach as euphemism then we can say whether spinach was home grown, imported from east Europe or if performance is low due to scarcity of spinach etc. Technique change can’t convey so many things

So, these are the medals won by us at the world championships held in the last couple of months-

Wrestling -4 ( 1 silver, 3 bronze)
Boxing - 2 ( 1 silver, 1 bronze)
Badminton - 2 ( 1 gold, 1 bronze)
Archery - 1 ( silver by mens team)

9 medals in these world championships in a year before olympics is great.

Compare that with what we had in same event a year before Rio i.e 2015

Wrestling- 1 ( Narsingh Yadav)
Boxing - 1 ( Shiva Thapa)
Badminton - 1 (PVS)
Archery - 1 ( womens team)

So, out of these 4 medals we could convert only 2 into olympic medals, 1 each in wrestling and badminton ( although wrestling medal was not from Narsingh).

So, hopefully, we will convert at least 5 of those world championship medals into medals at Tokyo. I would count 2 in wrestling ( Bajrang, Vinesh), 1 in badminton ( Sindhu) and 1 in Boxing ( Amit) as most likely and at least 1 out other 4.

Then, shooting where world championship did not take place this year. But, looking at world rankings and results of world cups this year, we look good to pick up at least 4 medals - Mens Air pistol ( 1 from Saurabh/Abhishek), Womens Air rifle ( 1 from Apurvi/Anjum), 1 from pistol mixed team and 1 additional either from rifle mixed team or from other rifle/pistol.

Then, 1 from Meerabai Chanu looks very much on cards.

At least based on these results, anything less than 10 medal would look to be a comedown from these performances. And now even 14 medal projection of gracenote which we ridiculed few months back does not look totally out of place.

Am I too optimistic ?

Would be disappointed if they do not medal

PV Sindhu (women's singles badminton) (-)
Bajrang Punia (men's 65kg wrestling) (-)
Saurabh Chaudhary (men's 10m air pistol) (-)
Saurabh Chaudhary/Manu Bhaker ( Mens air pistol mixed team) (-)
Divyansh Singh Panwar + one of Apurvi or Anjum (10m air rifle mixed team) (+1)
Amit Phangal (men's 52 kg boxing) (+1)
Mirabai Chanu (48kg women's weightlifting) (+1)

Likely medal contenders but would like to see a few more world class performances first

Apurvi Chandela (10M Air rifle) (-1)
Abhishek Verma (men's 10m air pistol) (+2)
Vinesh Phogat (women's 53kg wrestling) (+1)
Ravi Kumar (men's 57kg wrestling) (new entry)
Abhishek Verma + Yashaswini (10m air pistol mixed team) (new entry)

Will be in contention / reach finals ( top 8)

Anjum Moudgil (women's 10m air rifle) (+1)
Manu Bhaker (women's 10M Air Pistol) (-)
** 10m air rifle mixed team 2 (yet to qualify)
Deepak Punia (men's 86kg wrestling) (new entry)
Manish Kaushik (men's 57kg boxing) (new entry)
men's recurve archery team (new entry)

Could win a medal with some luck

Neeraj Chopra (men's javelin) (-1)
Anjum Moudgil (women's 50m air rifle 3pos) (new entry)
Yashaswini Singh (women's 10m air pistol) (new entry)
Kavinder Singh Bisht (men's 56kg boxing) (-)
Divyansh Singh Panwar (10m air rifle) (-)
Sanjeet (men's 91kg boxing) (new entry)

Rational mind knows they are no-hopers but we will still hope

men's field hockey team (-)
B Sai Praneeth (men's singles badminton) (new entry)
Saina Nehwal (women's singles badminton) (-1)
mixed doubles table tennis (-)
Mary Kom (women's 51kg boxing) (-)
Atanu Das & Deepika Kumari (mixed recurve archery team) (-)
Rahi Sarnobat (women's 25m air pistol) (-1)
Manu Bhaker (women's 25m air pistol) (-)
Sanjeev Rajput (men's 50m air rifle 3pos) (new entry)
Sushil Kumar (men's 74kg wrestling) (new entry)


Fallen off completely
Kidambi Srikanth (men's singles badminton)
Pooja Dhanda (women's 57 kg wrestling)
men's doubles tennis
Sakshi Malik (women's 62kg wrestling)
Deepa Karmakar (women's gymnastics)

With expected medal values of 0.7, 0.5, 0.3, 0.1 and 0.02 for the 5 categories, we get to an expected medal count of 10 which is the highest for us in this Olympic cycle.

The real positive is that outside of Neeraj, every one of our major medal contenders has maintained or improved their levels. And a lot of new entrants in categories 2 and 3 which is exciting.

Mens archery team won silver at world championships. So, they deserve to be a notch or two up in the expectations. Other than that agree with your list.

So, 10 medals is now official expectation from SI.

Pretty good lists. Yeah, it seems pretty clear that anything less than 7 or 8 medals will be a big disappointment. 10 will make me happy. 12 or more would leave me ecstatic.

Shooting is the big one and it will be decided very early on in the schedule. Win those medals in shooting and I think the rest of our athletes won't feel as much pressure and will be able to meet expectations.

By sport, expected medal counts (last WC medal count)

Shooting 4.86 (1)
Wrestling 2.02 (4)
Boxing 1.22 (2)
Badminton 0.74 (1-2*)
Weightlifting 0.7 (1*)
Archery 0.32 (1)
Athletics 0.1 (0)
Table tennis 0.02 (0)
Tennis 0.02 (0)

So, we won 1 medal at shooting in Olympic events in the 2018 world championships and we are projecting almost 5 at SI.

Big difference, Saurabh was still a junior, Abhishek was still to emerge and we had messy team selections for the first ever mixed events.