U.S. Politics

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jayakris
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Re: Politics

Post by jayakris »

prasen9 wrote:I don't understand head or tails of these arguments but the use of the price of iPads or iPhones is somewhat disingenuous and I wish PKB was careful about that while writing about that. The price of electronics usually goes down over the years as better products come into the market. The same camera or computer is expected to be cheaper in three years let alone six or seven. The price of other things do not follow the same trend and maybe he should have chosen a different example. How about Scalia's favorite: broccoli. Has its price gone up or down?
prasen, Isn't that why they have the CPI (consumer price index), which uses multiple commodity prices? I don't know about broccoli, but here are the official USA stats, all the way back to early last century. ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt.

I see that the yearly price increase during the last 20 years is 2.5% and not showing huge variations. Comparing the January prices after each election year, it was 2.60% during the Clinton years, 2.37% during the Bush-II years, and 2.39% during the three Obama years. Before that, the Regan/Bush 12 years saw a 4.2% yearly price increase and the disastrous carter years (77-81) saw a 10.4% increase (the kind of inflation that hadn't been seen since 1921). Anyway, no indication that Obama years are yet causing any huge price inflation, but I suppose Peter believes what some say about some sort of Carter years to be coming soon, and PKB disagrees :) ....

Jay
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Re: Politics

Post by jayakris »

Since prasen and Justice Scalia are enamored with broccoli, I went looking and found the stats -- again thanks to the nice website spreadsheets provided by the US bureau of labor statistics (which must be an agency that the republicans want to purge for 'wasting" taxpayer money, I am sure) - http://www.bls.gov/ro3/apmw.htm.

Broccoli prices went up from about $0.8 per lb to $1.7 from early 1996 to early 2007, at a 7% yearly increase. Obama has taken care of broccoli for sure. Arrested the price increase and it is right at around 1.7 now too (actually a bit lower). So there.

Of course, Bush-I was famous for saying "I hate broccoli" once and thus earning the wrath of broccoli farmers. Republicans just don't seem to be good for broccoli.

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Re: Politics

Post by Prashant »

jayakris wrote:Republicans just don't seem to be good for broccoli.
:notworthy: :notworthy:

It is precisely this kind of wisdom which keeps me coming back to the forums...
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Re: Politics

Post by kujo »

Yes, for sure, inflation is coming. how else does US plan on paying back some of the borrowed money + interest (aka. debt)?

1. increasing GDP (anemic annual increases so far)?! destroying wealth is an easier path (whether by a stock market crash or by a long drawn war) than creating and / or conserving wealth!! China has made big strides to close the GDP gap with US in past decade while US wasted a lot of it's economic output in a decade long war.

2. increasing population (try talking about immigration in US)?!

3. dilution of Dollar, increase the Fed's Balance sheet!! yaaay! ding ding ding!! Problem is: dollar being a global currency of trade, most other countries are forced to keep the status quo (same exchange rate) by diluting their currency as well...
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Re: Politics

Post by kujo »

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/04/16/anyo ... x-gld-slv/ Nice long rambling article....

BTW, if you watch that Tony Robinson video - good one to watch - let me know what is the fundamental flaw in it? 7:47 mark on the video - straw man argument.

refer table S-1 on page 3 of http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BUDGET-201 ... BUD-29.pdf
we should be concerned about the deficit of 1.327 Trillion for 2012, not the entire spending for 2012! narrow the deficit gap by cutting spending (defense/wars, social security, medicare medicaid) and increasing the revenue (Buffet rule, corporate tax)

OR
as I always say, just print more money! :devil:
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Re: Politics

Post by kujo »

nice speech
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/decep ... e/995107/0
On China’s “deception”, Saran said, “It is easy to accuse the Chinese of betrayal, as Nehru did after the 1962 war, but a clear awareness that deception is, after all, an integral element of Chinese strategic culture, may have spared us much angst in the past...there is no moral or ethical dimension attached to deception and the Chinese would find it odd being accused of betrayal, in particular, if the strategy of deception had worked. What is required from our strategists and diplomats is to understand this important instrument in the Chinese strategic tool-box and learn to deal with it effectively.
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Re: Politics

Post by PKBasu »

This is slightly shameless advertising, but in (what I hope you will agree is) a good cause. I welcome all friends and well-wishers of India to visit this site:

http://prasenjitkbasu.blogspot.sg/2011/ ... -term.html

Please feel free (in fact, I implore you) to comment on the agenda for the party in particular. All Indians of integrity (including NRIs and PIOs) are welcome to join, but most of all I need as many people as possible to comment on various blogs on the site -- comments both for and against are welcome. Democracy of course thrives on argument!

I start with the basic premise: Jodi tor daak shune keu na ashe, ekla cholo re ("if nobody heeds your call, march on alone"), which inspired Gandhiji (and eventually the nation).
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Re: Politics

Post by jayakris »

So, Obama did stand up to the Republicans and got some tax raises done. Now the big fight on cuts comes, in 2 months. Cut defense, cut defense, cut defense.... I can hope, no? :) Jay
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Re: Politics

Post by prasen9 »

Not going to happen.
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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by PKBasu »

The American system works. A re-elected president gets his way on the key issues that the election has been fought on. Taxes (especially on the top 2% of income-earners) were the key issue in the election: Obama said they should go up, Romney said not. On New Year's Day, 85 Republican congressmen caved, as did almost all the Republican senators -- acknowledging the majesty of American democracy. Now, quietly, the Republicans have also agreed to extend the debt ceiling until May 19th -- which will greatly facilitate the conclusion of rational bargaining on spending cuts to be effected by March 1st. I think these will involve a balance of defense cuts and spending cuts -- with all the cuts back-end loaded (i.e., to start in 2014 and beyond) to allow the economic recovery to gain some momentum in the course of this year.

As for inflation: it still remains subdued. Money supply is measured by M2 or M3. M2 in the US grew by just 6.5% in 2012, so inflation stayed subdued. The Fed had printed a lot of money in 2009-10, but most of it remained in banks' vaults (rather than being lent out to non-banks like households and businesses) -- which is what typically happens in the aftermath of a banking crisis. Consequently, M2 grew less than 3% in 2010. US banks' net credit began to increase again (albeit modestly) in August 2011. With the money multiplier thus recovering modestly, the Fed doesn't need to expand its monetary base (actual printing of notes) as rapidly. QE3 is helping to ensure that M2 grows 6-8% YoY -- and I expect that real output will begin to accelerate during the course of 2013, as uncertainty over the fiscal issues wanes by the end of March. Slightly higher inflation would have been an easy way of reducing the public debt burden, but the US didn't have to adopt that approach.
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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by jayakris »

Nice to hear your thoughts on the US economy. Waiting for the doom-merchants here to respond :)

Yes, the US system works. It is a fabulous constitution, that has allowed mechanisms to develop for proper checks and balance, and to bring in accountability to people and quite a good level of responsiveness to people's voices. You can see why I keep harping on how the Indian constitution is at least 40 years too late in being totally reformed - as it probably has the least amount of accountability and responsiveness in the world!

About the only thing that is really broken in the US is the constituency redistricting schemes that has left a party with less than 45% of real support in the country (republicans) with well over 55% power in the congress - but even for that problem that the Democrats complain about, there are some very logical arguments that are valid (though they are never offered by political pundits even on the Republican side!).

Jay
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Re: U.S. Politics

Post by Kumar »

Before coming to US, I believed that there was no corruption in US. After few years, I realized that corruption is there, but it is legalized and happens at the policy level.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/02/24 ... ts-judges/

A very interesting article on Texas Supreme Court elections and how money influences the decision of this court. Not only in US, but neighboring Canada, how money opens doors. Corruption does not happen here at low levels where u have to pay some one to move your application forms. But corruption happens at policy levels where decisions are influenced .

The reason, I bought this up is that there will be a case in Supreme Court this upcom8ng week, where governor of Texas will sue school boards that mandated mask against governor order . This case will be lost. Texans and republicans who are so high on local governance essentially don’t want local control when local control is against their wishes.
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