Billie Jean King Cup (previously Fed Cup) - India

[sameerph]

Ankita lost 57 16. Looks like physically Ankita may be exhausted or the other girl played really well. Anyway, lost 0-2 against China.

[sameerph]

We lost 0-3 against China.

In the meantime, Japan won easily Uzbekistan. So, Japan is at top with 3 out of 3 wins and Uzbekistan is at bottom 3 with 3 out of 3 losses.

Today Thailand beat Korea who had beat China yesterday. So, behind Japan, India and China are with 2 wins. Then, Korea and Thailand with 1 win each.

We have 2 ties left against Korea and Japan. China has ties left against Japan and Thailand. If both India and China lose to Japan and win their second match, we both tie at 3 wins each and I guess still China will go thru based on today's win ( have not checked the tie break rule).

In worst case, if we lose both matches, there could be a chance that Korea, India and Thailand end on 2 wins each and then again it depends on tie break.

So, I guess safe to say that we need to win both the remaining matches if we want to finish in top 2. 1 out of 2 wins ( mostly against Korea) will ensure we avoid relegation.

Tomorrow we play Japan.

[jayakris]

Messed the whole thing up, basically. I don't know if I can say that Shalini made a huge mistake, but I wish she had just been a but more daring.

Thailand and India are 5-4, and Korea is 2-7 in matches. Assuming Thailand will beat UZB 3-0, they both will be at least 8-7 in matches even at 2-3 in ties. India will most probably lose 0-3 against Japan on the final day, so we are looking at 5-7 and Korea is looking at 5-7 excluding the India-Korea tie. The best Korea can do is 8-7. If we take the doubles tie against Korea, they will almost surely finish 7-8. But we still need to win at least two matches. We *must* win at least the doubles matches against both Korea and Japan and finish at least 7-8 in matches to have a chance on game score tiebreakers if THA-KOR-IND all finish 2-3...

Beat Korea tomorrow and we are in great shape. Lose to Korea and we will most probably be relegated. Even winning the doubles match the net two days would probably not be enough. It was so important to take at least the doubles tie against China. We should have simply rested Rutuja and Ankita (at least the latter) and sent them in for doubles against China.

[sameerph]

I would not hold it against Shalini for not resting Ankita and Rutuja today. She must have genuinely thought ( and myself and Dinesh also expressed it here in earlier posts today) that we have a real chance of beating this relatively weaker Chinese team. Rutuja should have done better than how she performed today, if she had won that would have spurred Ankita too.

The time to rest for Ankita/Rutuja was yesterday against Uzbekistan where I am sure we would have won without them.

Thailand and India are 5-4, and Korea is 2-7 in matches. Assuming Thailand will beat UZB 3-0, they both will be at least 8-7 in matches even at 2-3 in ties. India will most probably lose 0-3 against Japan on the final day, so we are looking at 5-7 and Korea is looking at 5-7 excluding the India-Korea tie. The best Korea can do is 8-7. If we take the doubles tie against Korea, they will almost surely finish 7-8. But we still need to win at least two matches. We *must* win at least the doubles matches against both Korea and Japan and finish at least 7-8 in matches to have a chance on game score tiebreakers if THA-KOR-IND all finish 2-3...

Korea too has a match left against Uzbekistan, so if they win that and the match against us, they anyway go ahead of us with 3 wins. Then, it is between us and Thailand for 4th/5th spot. Got to see what the criteria is - is it first head to head in case of direct tie between 2 teams or is it the match win-losses. If it is former we are basically thru to top 4 already ( unless Thailand beats China- then it gets complicated) and in case it is later, we are out as with 2 losses our win-loss will be worse than Thailand if they win 1 match.

So, unless I miscalculated, matches won may not matter in the end. If we beat Korea, we stay in and if we lose against them it depends on criteria.

[jayakris]

Yeah, it was yesterday against Uzbekistan that we needed to roll the dice...

You are right. If we lose to Korea, then it may be a tie against Thailand at 2-3 and we don't know what the tiebreaker rule is, but on matches won/lost, we will most probably lose out if we lose the next two ties and do not win at least the two doubles ties. Rutuja should not play the net match in any event. Ankita may have no choice but to play at least the singles tomorrow. If it is head to had against Thailand that matters first, then we may not be relegated even if we lost the next two. But if Thailand beats China, hell will break lose

[sameerph]

Ok, just checked the rules on BJKC cup site and found this for regional groups-

56.2.3 The final standings in each group shall be determined by the following
count-back calculation (i.e. determined by the first of the following
methods that applies, following the order set out below):
56.2.3.1 Greatest number of points.
56.2.3.2 If two Nations are tied with an equal number of points, those
Nations’ head-to-head result shall determine final standings.

And only if 3 nations are tied, it goes matches won will have first priority.

That means there is pretty good chance that we will not relegated even if we lose the last 2 matches as we will be always better than Thailand.

The only realistic scenario where we can get relegated now is if we lose both matches and Thailand beats China. Then, we are out. But, if Thailand beats China and we beat Korea we will tie with Thailand with 3 wins each and will get promoted based on head to head.

This is of course assuming that both us and China will lose to Japan.

[jayakris]

So, generally we are in good shape, you mean? Sounds good to me

[arjun2761]

China has been unpredictable in this tournament. Looks like they came to beat India but played 2 doubles specialists in their previous match. Otherwise, China and Japan look like the 2 top teams in this group.

[Dinesh]

Rutuja won a meager one game in her loss to Mai Hontama. That’s Indian #2 for us. We typically see players perform exceedingly well beyond their average when it comes to national assignments but here we have bagels and breadsticks:

[Omkara]

Just like we can't expect a cement slab to shine no matter how much polishing we do, we can't expect likes of Rutuja and Sasikumar to take us far. And beyond a certain age most falter sooner. We need talent that has been nurtured well. We don't have the infrastructure to nurture and talent won't just walk through the door

[jayakris]

Let us throw Sahaja in tomorrow against Korea (if Shalini has made her do a lot of serving practice to stop double-faulting). If not, send Vaidehi in. Roll the dice for a change.

[jayakris]

So, basically the relegation and advancements are all mostly decided, right? JPN has advanced already. (Assuming UZB loses) If India and CHN lose, then KOR advances and THA gets eliminated. If India wins (regardless of CHN result), KOR gets eliminated.

Japan advances and UZB is eliminated for sure, and we will be among the middle two for sure. All pressure is on Korea, who will quite probably advance with a win, and will almost surely get eliminated if they lose. Am I right?

Japan and China have nothing to lose, but we can lose to Korea to screw China. Japan will try to win, though they don't need to, just because it is China. So, should we just go and lose? We love Korea, no? At least we love Black Pink and BTS and the Korean Ambassador dances well to Nattu Nattu, so let us lose.

[sameerph]

So, basically the relegation and advancements are all mostly decided, right? JPN has advanced already. (Assuming UZB loses) If India and CHN lose, then KOR advances and THA gets eliminated. If India wins (regardless of CHN result), KOR gets eliminated.

Japan advances and UZB is eliminated for sure, and we will be among the middle two for sure. All pressure is on Korea, who will quite probably advance with a win, and will almost surely get eliminated if they lose. Am I right?

Correct, if we talk of relegation, actually Japan, China and India already ensured that they stay in group 1 next year. It will be either Korea or Thailand
who will get relegated along with Uzbekistan. India-Korea match is key for that, if we win Korea gets eliminated, if Korea wins Thailand get eliminated.

Even if we win against Korea and China loses, we are tied head to head with China with 3 wins and China advance based on result between our match. So, we have no stake basically in the last match against Korea except for pride of finishing third in group. So, we can just play Sahaja and Vaidehi.

[jayakris]

^^^ Yeah, let us stick it to China! It is very rare that we get a chance to lose a tie and screw China. We should take it up. We can offer to try not to lose if they stop saying that Arunachal Pradesh is theirs.

If Shalini makes Ankita play tomorrow, I will be pretty upset. Playing Rutuja might be okay even if we are trying to lose (as she has just not shown indication this time in singles to be better than Vaidehi or Sahaja)

[Dinesh]

These kind of tactics never get played by Indian officials, especially in tennis. If Ankita were any smarter, she would give up her spot, get a day off and pack her bags to Nottingham to keep fresh for the W25 event and let Vaidehi shine in this dead rubber!