Indian Economy

[Rajiv]

@ Atithee , yes the situation is ripe in Pakistan , but that has happened on many occasion starting from 1971 , but the US administration always propped it and saved them,, because if the “Jairnails” are abandoned then you have a 71 like situation with Gilgit , Baluchistan, the Frontier province splitting , and even Sindh too as until his death in 95 GM Syed led a very active Jiye Sindh movement.
So whichever USA administration is in power they will never forsake and abandon the Rawalpindi Generals and prevent another Bangladesh type of situation.
@ Sin Hombre yes this is scary times , but the threat of Islamist was always there , but contained well By a stronger Modi administration but now with a belligerent opposition and with the aid of the usual foreign suspects it might make things difficult ,and that is the bigger worry than the Islamist, So National unity on security matters will be a good foil , but will that happen , only time will tell , and today Salman Khurshid has already set the tone with his comments , "What has happened in Bangladesh, can happen in India" , at least in the past on many occasion you had Mulayum Singh , Sharad Pawar stoutly supporting the Govt on National security matters.

[prasen9]

Seikh Hasina was an autocrat who, like autocrats, tortured and killed and put in jail tons of people. I am glad the students disposed of her. However, as the Arab Spring exercise in Egypt, American capture of Iraq, etc. showed downing an autocrat is perhaps easier than setting up a functioning democracy. I hope the best for Bangladesh. There is not much we gain by sheltering Hasina. We should try to see whatever leverage we can gain and establish relationships with the Yunus government and help groups that will be against the hardcore Islamists or the army from taking over.

[Atithee]

The level of anti-India mood in Bangladesh is so high now. Everything that is wrong in Bangladesh right now is blamed on India. Latest is the floods being blamed on release of dam water by India.

[prasen9]

The stupidity of Modi in supporting Hasina blatantly etc. is to blame. If a country suffers from a brutal dictator and another country has supported the dictator, then, that country would be very correct in hating that country. We should have managed our support for Hasina diplomatically and tell her to leave India. We gain nothing by sheltering her. The military general they have is pro-India or at least not anti-India. We should drop Hasina and develop ties with that guy, and others who are sympathetic to India. And, do it fast. Next time, try to moderate dictators, even if it is a friendly dictator, if you must support a dictator. You sow as you reap. Stupid short-sighted policy boomerangs in the long run. Not doing the right thing comes back to bite you sooner or later.

[Rajiv]

There was no stupidity in suporting Hasina and the right and only choice available to India, had there been any other party or influential leader sympathetic towards India , India would have surely nurtured them.
Would the other choices like BNP, Jamat or even the present caretaker Yunus will look after Indian interests, and let us accept the fact Hasina did look after Indian concerns and there is no alternative to that.

It is similar to India having to support Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan, as after Karzai there was no other choice same like Hasina to look after Indian interests. So like in Afghanistan, same situation arose in Bangladesh where India had no other option left other than Hasina.

Bangladesh is slowly heading towards being an intolerant Islamist nation and have just ordered the book by Hiranmay Karlekar "Bangladesh the Next Afghanistan "

[Prem]

Is India supporting Hasina due to Adani business interests? Below video from The Wire throws some light of business dealings with Bangladesh which was a win win for Hasina and Adani..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bY0pRUiGSs

[prasen9]

Hasina was absolutely the right choice 10 years ago. But, after she became increasingly brutal, we needed to hedge our bets and cool off. Even if there is no other option, we needed to do the least needed to keep her on our side and get what we wanted. We also needed to tell her that her brand of autocratism and brutal dictatorship has risks and moderate her. There is absolutely nothing in it for us now to shelter her. I do not think she will come to power back again.

Why do we think Bangladesh will be the next Afghanistan and not the next Pakistan?

[jayakris]

Why do we think Bangladesh will be the next Afghanistan and not the next Pakistan?

Is there a difference? Even if there is, does the difference matter?

[prasen9]

Absolutely, there is a difference. And, yes, it matters.

[srini]

Seikh Hasina was an autocrat who, like autocrats, tortured and killed and put in jail tons of people. I am glad the students disposed of her. However, as the Arab Spring exercise in Egypt, American capture of Iraq, etc. showed downing an autocrat is perhaps easier than setting up a functioning democracy. I hope the best for Bangladesh. There is not much we gain by sheltering Hasina. We should try to see whatever leverage we can gain and establish relationships with the Yunus government and help groups that will be against the hardcore Islamists or the army from taking over.

I did not follow the Bangladesi affairs until this so called student revolution happened.

Hasina came to power for a consecutive 4th term (5th if considering all terms). So is the democracy and elections in Bangla really a "Sham" or was she reasonably popular there? Even if elections are a sham there, i am not willing to believe this nobel laurate Yunus...typically nobel prizes in certain areas like peace and economics have always been based on political considerations and not on merit. We have umpteen examples for that.The images shown on TV for this student movement had mostly middle aged looking bearded mullahs, for me they didn't look like students.

[PKBasu]

The level of anti-India mood in Bangladesh is so high now. Everything that is wrong in Bangladesh right now is blamed on India. Latest is the floods being blamed on release of dam water by India.

This is standard in Bangladesh whenever the Awami League is out of power. I grew up watching Bangladesh TV when Ziaur Rahman was dictator there (because that was the only signal available in north Bengal at the time; Doordarshan didn't reach us). The daily news was virulently anti-India, and Hindus were treated as non-people (there was azaan five times a day, and Buddhist Tripitaka once a week, but nothing Hindu was allowed, so I used to think that there were no Hindus left in Bangladesh and Pakistan -- until I met Bangladeshi Hindus and began looking at the data). I once heard Khaleda Zia speak at a UN session (while I was staying at a New York hotel), and she spent her entire time talking about how "Bharot amaader rokto chooshche" (India is sucking our blood), while talking about nothing but river water.

Sheikh Mujibur Rahman won the only election ever held in Pakistan. (At that time, East Pakistan had about 55% of Pakistan's population, and he won all but 2 seats there, so he had a clear majority in Pakistan's National Assembly). In trying to prevent him becoming PM of Pakistan, their army unleashed a genocide against East Pakistan's Hindus -- which is brilliantly portrayed in Gary Bass's book, "The Blood Telegram" (about US consul-general Archer Blood's repeated telegrams talking about the genocide of Hindus that was being perpetrated to ensure that they would never again enable someone like Mujib to win an election in Pakistan). Gary Bass shows how Indira Gandhi and Swaran Singh deliberately covered up the Hindu genocide that was occurring in East Pakistan (and it largely remains unknown to this day in India!). More than 90% of the refugees who fled East Pakistan were Hindus, and around 90% of all those killed in East Pakistan in 1971 were Hindus too.

Bangladesh has held one genuinely free and fair election, in December 2008. It was won by Sheikh Hasina's Awami League in a landslide. There were other elections that were moderately fair, one each won by Awami League and BNP-Jamaat. BNP never held fair elections once they were in power. Awami League did the same in 2013-14, 2018-19 and 2024. Awami League would have won the 2013-14 election even if it was free and fair, but BNP boycotted it. In 2019, BNP contested but lost (although the vote wasn't seen as free and fair). The Jan 2024 election had a 40% turnout, after BNP boycotted it. Awami League won in a landslide, but the low turnout de-legitimised it. India did quietly advise Hasina to allow an independent election commission (and sent SY Qureshi, former CEC of India) to help her set it up. But she didn't act on that advice (which was not very publicly discussed).

India has no alternative person/party to make friends with in Bangladesh (Yunus is known to be close to BNP and the old military establishment) -- although of course we are in touch with the current army chief, who is a distant relative of Hasina's, and hence on the defensive. There was a military coup attempt (led by the Bangladesh Rifles) against Hasina within 2 months of the Dec2008 election electoral landslide. And another one in 2011. Plus her father, mother, brothers and entire extended family was assassinated on 15 August 1975 (a date carefully chosen for its symbolism). So Hasina was paranoid with good reason.

[jayakris]

Just leave Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka to destroy themselves whichever way they want. I don't care any more.

[Atithee]

The problem is that India cannot function in isolation. We can’t ignore it even if we don’t want to have to do anything with these neighbors. There’s collateral damage either way.

[prasen9]

@srini Bangladeshi elections were a sham. It was basically a one-party rubber-stamp election. You can believe what you want to believe but the Bangladeshi students started and in some sense led these protests. They did not give up even after the court reversed the quota decision by the government. After that it snowballed when huge masses wanted to overthrow the dictator and yes, pot-bellied Mullahs who were middle-aged did come out in droves.

I do not always think from the "what is in it for me?" angle. We will be fine. Even if our neighbors are all religious zealots and a bit of an unstable island in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka will be fine too. Anyway, as a matter of principle, I will not support a dictator or befriend her. If in doing so, I am poor, so be it. Yes, with a Muslim zealot government, we will have to do a bit more to contain the cross-border annoyances but we can do that. Atithee is correct. But, we have dealt with Muslim fundamentalist governments in Pakistan and we have dealt with Khaleda Zia and the military before that In Bangladesh. We will do fine. I am willing to bet on that.

No person with any ounce of morality can support the hideous human rights violations of the Hasina government. Of course, the current government is well-versed in killing people for political gains and I have no expectation of any moral behavior from them. But, even from a realpolitik consideration, there is no logic in sheltering Hasina now.

[prasen9]

Just leave Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka to destroy themselves whichever way they want. I don't care any more.

In the long run, overturning a dictator is a good thing for Bangladesh. So, they should be better off. But, when you overturn a dictator, good governence does not come right away. The revolutions in France, England, etc. and everywhere in the world resulted in more chaos. As did the overturning of dictators Saddam Hussein or Gaddafi. But, in the long run, you have to go through the dismantling of dictatorships and hoping for a good rebuild. Bangladesh has just turned a corner. As PKB said, they did that in 2008 and then Hasina had to get revenge, etc. Hope this time it is different and a good system is set up. We will see.