I agree, we can win 5-6 medals in shooting. Same i would say for wrestling. Together both Shooting and wrestling can fetch India 10 medals with some good luck in 2028.
Should we start a pre-mortem of the 2028 Olympics disaster thread now itself?
is that no jinx thread?
I think it helps us internalize the expected disaster so that it is slightly more bearable when it inevitably happens.
So we will start with estimating 10 medals in shooting and wrestling but then conclude that we will be lucky to win 3.4 bronzes.
I agree, we can win 5-6 medals in shooting. Same i would say for wrestling. Together both Shooting and wrestling can fetch India 10 medals with some good luck in 2028.
Should we start a pre-mortem of the 2028 Olympics disaster thread now itself?
is that no jinx thread?
Unfortunately I am not the eternal optimist like a few in this forum. So no jinx is the right way to go. Wherever we are likely to be disappointed in 2028 we should talk about now. I have a different take on India's performance in 2028. Cricket is being included. So all the media attention would be on the cricketers including the women. So the rest of the contingent can perform without pressure. That may help us sneak in a few extra medals.
FWIW, our pessimistic projections turn out to be quite close to the actual number of medals we win. Perhaps, because we actually look more closely at some of these "world cup" wins in the more sporadically played sports (so we have low reliability data) and assign lower probability to them when compared to the more shallow analysis that you often see on the net.
Actually the level of competition at these WCs may not be all that bad (for example we had the top Chinese in this event), however it's the pressure factor that is the difference. That is really key in precision sports like shooting and archery where even a little bit of nervousness or loss in concentration makes all the difference.
^^ Yes, that is the main difference for our shooters, pressure is different at olympics. But, at Paris some change were visibile when we had 6 finalists and 3 medals. This was big improvement for 2020 when we had only 2 finalists and no medal.
Hopefully, in 2028 we will have about 10 finalists and 5-6 medals. Very much possible.
In the meantime in this world cup on last day, we got a bronze in 10M Air pistol mixed team thru Saurabh Chaudhari and Suruchi Phogat. Great to see Saurabh back to being in medals at international level. If he can get his confidence that will be great for us at next olympics.
We ended up with 4 golds and 8 medals at this world cup and second position behind China.
Next up is world cup in Lima,Peru which starts next week.
Yes, Saurabh was at the peak of his prowess at the time of 2020 Tokyo olympics. Hit a faboulous qualifying score in 10M Air pistol individuals to top that but all of a sudden faltered in the final to finish 7th. Than, in the mixed team he and Manu topped the qualifiers again and he shot well in the final too but Manu faltered.
But, he was looked at someone with extraordinary talent - won Asian games gold in 2018 at 16 in a clutch final. That Tokyo olympics setback seems to have hurt his morale a lot and he was down and out for almost 4 years. Now got thru selection trials and into Indian team after 4 years.
Clearly still not at his previous best ( he did not qualify for individual final) but that mixed team gold will boost his morale. He is still only 22 and he can get his mojo back, he will be strong contender for medal at LA 2028, hope so.
Second world cup of the year began in Lima,Peru yesterday.
Great start for us as we got gold and silver in womens 10M Air pistol. 18 year old Suruchi Phogat continued the amazing start to her career with back to back golds in 2 world cups this year. Manu Bhakar put aside the disappointment of last world cup and won silver. In the final, she shot better than what she shot in Paris Olympics for a bronze but Suruchi shot even better.
In mens 10M Air pistol, finally Saurabh Chaudhari won his first medal at world cup level since 3 years with a bronze. Before that Saurabh had won as many as 15 medals at world cup level before the age of 19. He is still not at his former best but hopefully slowly getting back there.
So, we have 1 gold, 1 silver and 1 bronze after day 1. China has 1 gold and 1 bronze.
Great to see Saurabh get a gold. He might not be at his best but I hope he at least reaches what he was in 2018. That alone would boost our medal chances so much.
Arjun Babuta ( who narrowly missed a medal in Paris Olympics) wins silver in mens 10M Air rifle at Lima world cup. He was leading but was pipped on the last 2 shots by Paris Olympic champion Lihao Sheng. Second Indian in the final last world cup champion Rudranksh Patil's one shot score was nullified due to being shortly. Before that, he too was in top 3 and we missed another medal due to this.
In womens 10M Air rifle, newcomer Arya Borse made it to the final but finished 5th which is good in her only second world cup.
Arya Borse-Rudranksh Patil win silver in mens 10M rifle mixed team and Simranpreet Kaur Brar won silver in womens 25M pistol where Manu Bhaker finished 4th and Esha Singh 6th.
We ended up with 2 golds, 4 silvers and 1 bronze, a total of 7 medals with third place behind China and USA at this Lima world cup.
