Indo-Pak issues, terrorism, Kashmir, etc.

[prasen9]

There are lots of things we can do. For example, we can say that we won't play Pakistan in cricket. ICC has to choose. If they want to ban us, we can create our own cricket body and pay players to play in a Packer-type league. Any player playing in the Pakistani league will not be given IPL contracts. Let people choose.

Wrt water, we don't really have that many dams and canals. So, it is a stupid idea to sabre rattle with the treaty. We should look at all possible treaties and all possible forums to tighten the screw - again without causing mass scale visible casualties in Pakistan. For this reason, an allout war or an all out economic war can be damaging to us. We need to optimize our well-being without being morally bankrupt.

[prasen9]

Jay, you do not have to starve them at one go. You can say that we will cut off 5% or 10% of the water every year unless the terrorist network is dismantled.

I think the problem is that Pakistani government or the military itself does not have control over these terrorist groups. They keep striking against Pakistani interests inside their country too. Maybe a separate set wanting Baluchistani freedom. That is one thing we can tacitly support and then use that as a carrot to say that we can stop supporting them if you stop supporting people who are killing Indians.

[srini]

How many of us believe the terrorists get training with in Pakistan by ISI and Pak military? I think for attacks like the Uri, Pulwama or Pehelgam a local Kashmiri without any external support can't pull it off without the ammunition,military gear and communication devices provided by our neighbour. There are satellite imagery available with all intelligence agencies including USA,India etc to establish the fact that terror camps exist in Pakistan. 2019 Balakot was identified using satellite imagery only and was a proper target, only thing was execution was messy and we still couldn't execute the anti terror strikes with the precision Israelis routinely achieve.

So if India doesn't respond militarly (not on Pak Army but to destroy some of such terror camps), it will be considered weakness and will let terrorists try repeat of such tourist executions with more frequency.India shouldn't resort to empty threats of IWT or Jheelum flooding etc, which put Indian government on same level as another terror organization.The job of Indian armed forces is to defend its citizen lives and a proper response would only testify that resolve.Pak being a nuclear state and can drop a nuclear weapon etc is all empty bluff from their politicians. Conducting a few nuclear tests is one thing and having a N-bomb that is ready to be used and having a proper delivery platform of missiles that can carry the N-bomb with accuracy are all different level. Neither Pak or for that matter India also do not have that capability. It takes months to years to process all the N-fuel to be able to develop a working N-bomb and deliver it.Pak is no Ukraine and no country (not even Chinese) will be supporting it for a long term conventional war. So i would advise a strong and resolute responce to try and destroy some terror camps and in the process if we have to run a convetional war for a few months, so be it. It would atleast ensure there are no repeat of misadventures into K-Valleys. Imagine the tourist revenue India and Kashmiris already lost due to this attack, its estimated 12 thousand crore INR per year which is a lot.Fighting a conventional war for a few months will give the right messaging and helps restore confidence in tourists.I don't think the falling Pak economy can sustain a prolonged campaign and will result in a ceasefire sooner than later!

[srini]

With 30 crore Muslims in India, why are these women finding husbands in Pakistan?

I think we can ask our overy own Sania Mirza, as she will definitely know the answer.

[jayakris]

Jay, you do not have to starve them at one go. You can say that we will cut off 5% or 10% of the water every year unless the terrorist network is dismantled.

No problem saying any of those things. I said threatening them with the possibility of even committing a war crime the world has never seen before, is just fine. Threaten, but just don't do it. Or do some stunt water control with proper warning to show that we CAN do it. Do it very carefully. That is what I am saying.

Do not let these bugs sit there and create a story that India is killing millions. The slimy bugs are still quite good at that game, though the bug country is a little less competent now even at that game compared to the past (like in everything else). But from past experience, we know that support for India from other countries disappear really fast. At least overt support for India disappears fast, even if nobody wants to overtly fight with India anymore because of the economic angles. If we are going to strike Pakistan, it has to be of a much bigger scale than the Balakot strikes, but also one that is cleanly targeted and executed. This water-bomb attack is not one that can be cleanly targeted and executed.

[arjun2761]

I think we should let our military provide a suitable response if they are capable of it when they are ready. Any military camps or military targets of Pakistan that we perceive as a threat are legitimate targets. Of course, I don't know what their real capabilities are.

However, one way of developing their capabilities is to use it in real world military situations. Just like you can't be a good player by simply practising, you need to play real matches. The same applies to our military strike capabilities. India has one of the largest military budgets and manpower outside of the US and China, so let's make sure that it is an effective fighting force and not just a group of folks that can march up and down in between their biryani and aloo paratha feasts.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... penditures


Of course, we should have our nuclear deterrent ready as well. In any case, we need to have a nuclear deterrent against China, so this would at least provide an opportunity for us to get our nuclear strike option ready for launch.

[Atithee]

With 30 crore Muslims in India, why are these women finding husbands in Pakistan?

I think we can ask our overy own Sania Mirza, as she will definitely know the answer.

Srini, that’s uncalled for in this context. Some things are better left unsaid.

[srini]

^^
What did i say wrong Atithi? I don't think Sania minds answering it, all she will say is 'love can bloom anywhere...even on battle field'. Infact she said something similar to that effect when she got questions from journos abt it during that time.

Back to the real topic:

We are getting clearest signals from PMO that there will be a response, after all Modi guy can't be sitting tight after asking his country "men" to visit the "Naya" Kashmir in droves for a life enriching tourist experience! We are not being jigoistic here..all we are asking for is a strong response that can serve as deterrent for any future terror attacks and devoid of all drama of Balakot and Uri surgical strikes.If some one is still not convinced of a strong response they should hear out the tale of the teenager son of Manjunath whose Kashmir trip was meant to be a reward from his parents for his 98% scoring effort in PU exam that ended in a heartbreaking loss of losing the parent himself.Poor kid must be cursing himself for bringing it on his parent.So hopefully the strikes this time can inflict some real damage to terror camps and take down some of the key persons in its eco-system. I haven't ever seen India put to use any attack drones it has, this may be the right time to test them out in a real world military situation as Arjun has pointed before.

[prasen9]

With 30 crore Muslims in India, why are these women finding husbands in Pakistan?

I think we can ask our overy own Sania Mirza, as she will definitely know the answer.

Srini, that’s uncalled for in this context. Some things are better left unsaid.

I think your comment Atithee was uncalled for. Srini gave the right answer and the correct explanation. If anything was uncalled for, it was the question itself. Why should someone look at national borders before marrying or falling in love? Last I checked, if you marry within the same species, you can procreate. The question smacks of parochialim apart from nationalist jiongism. Why should Muslims just marry Muslims anyway? I understand they do that in practice as a religious block. Indians are perhaps among the most close-minded in this regard if we look at inter-racial marriages among the U.S. expats of various ethnicities. Anyway, let people marry whoever they want wherever they reside, whatever religion they may be.

The real answer to the question is that the borders are not tight. Whenever people mix across countries and move around across borders, people meet each other and fall for each other and get married. The border or line of control is an artificial construct that perhaps is strictly enforced only in the last 100 years. People all over the world moved around. Some people who live near the border would rather marry someone in PoK as opposed to some Muslim in Kerala. Only the uber-nationalists believe that one has to do everything within their country.

A person in Indian Kashmir has much in common culturally with a person who lives 5 miles away from them albeit across the military border than someone in the rest of India. And, left to natural progression, it is more natural to marry someone who lives close to you and is culturally closer to your culture than someone who speaks a different language far away.

One can rhetorically frame the same question goes for all of us. With so many jobs in India, at least among the well-educated among us, why are we finding jobs abroad?

[srini]

Alright friends, let's not fight it over some one's wedding choices when so much action is happening that can deter any future terror incidents. I think Indian government has shown some courage to come out of the soft state image it has created for itself over the time. In the last 11 years there were less terror incidents compared to past, and even when some happened people started beleiving there will be some response.After all the fact that 2019 Balakot response did deter next incident for 5 years is itself big.

Let me outline the things i liked and a few things i still detested in India's response.

What i liked :
1. Choice of targets and timing : India could gather military intelligence and strike only targets believed to be terror training camps and the timing chosen was night to reduce collateral damage of civilian lives. I think Indian government did better than Israel in reducing collateral damage.Where as Israel has been inflicting damage on Palastine which doesn't even have an air force, it is commendable India could this to a country like Pak which has a proper Air force and still simultaneously hit target locations which are hundreds of kilometeres apart with in 30 minutes time frame. India bolstered its case of right to respond by making sure it didn't intend escalation by not including any Pak military or civilian targets while minimizing civilian losses.
2.Execution and gathering undeniable evidence : India is improving in carrying out precision strikes. It took lessons from Balakot where the strikes most probably missed targets and had no evidence of inflicting any damage. This time they gathered satelite imagery/video evidence in its every hit.Several media outlets did confirm that Masood Azhar lost some of his near family members.While some of his family can potentially be innocent civilians, i think he can't detach himself from the wrong doings which brought it to his family members.
3. India seems to have used a range of equipment like attack drones, fighter planes to achieve this unlike before when it used paratrooped army on the ground or figher planes.The munitions were right on target in the middle of the building ceiling even making a hole below on the ground which seems to show underground bunkers.I wonder why Masjids would have bunkers, so those buildings don't seem to be solely meant to be used as a place of worship.

What i don't like :
1. India still seem to associate lot of symbolism by having the after strike presentation done by women officers and by naming the operation Sindoor and showing two sindoor bowls in place of 'O's in Sindoor etc etc.
2. After the presentation they didn't take any questions from media giving the on-going nature of operation as an excuse...so the true extent of supposed success of the operation or the losses we possibly took was shrouded in mystery. Pak claims to have shot 4-5 fighter planes.Hindustan times has this news but not much details.
https://youtu.be/vfL7jq-1DWE?si=CUkzZiHIUmLngE1e

One concerning thing i find is none of Indiam main stream media is reporting it. Here is some local TV channel reporting which seems to say pilots were found live and taken to hospital, i really don't know my hindi itself is not good enough i find Punjabi beyond my ability to fathom.if any of you know Panjabi please confirm what the reporter is telling below.
https://youtu.be/moT9e66MAB4?si=jdjWQ1HJvT-X7-bB

Another news article seems to claim a crash near Srinagar. Pak seems to claim they have used PL15 BVR (beyond visual range) missiles and hit our fighter jets with in our own border while they were returning from the operation. Our folks seem to suggest it is a Pakistani JF17 and some seem to say they are big unmanned drones and not figter planes.while i don't know what is fact,i feel its wrong if government is hiding any such losses. We have to reemmber this is military action on targets with in Pakistan which has proper airforce,so any such losses are understandable and shouldn't be hidden.If media were allowed, they would have asked those questions.
3.While i feel our response was appropriate, Pakistan is not a rational state and may try to bite more than they can chew and retaliation for this attack may be coming which may throw both countries headlong in fullblown war.

[prasen9]

You cannot deter any future terrorism incidents but investing in intelligence collection, sharing, modeling, etc. you can catch wind of these events and prevent them. What is happening is "revenge" or "show". You can kill a few people and take out a few leaders but they will just elect someone else as a leader and go with it. You can destroy their buildings - they will organize somewhere else - maybe it will take them a bit to buy another one but they are getting money from the military and other sympathizers. So, that is not an issue.

The real defense is to strategically infiltrate them in Pakistan and in India. This is about spies and information warfare. The bombing and all is largely symbolic. I am not against targeted bombing per se but that is not going to solve the real problem and make us more secure.

Pakistan knows they are going to lose heavily in traditional war and will most possibly not want to get into that. They may also do something symbolic. But, they will keep trying assymetric warfare by aiding more attacks by terrorists.

[srini]

Let's for a moment agree with your premise that "Real defense is to infiltrate them by spying". After that we do what? Ramdomly keep closing the tourist destinations based on Intel we receive? Tourists can't plan their tours based on Intel we receive. I believe precision hits are based on Intel only, otherwise how did some of the known terrorists like Abdul Rauf Azhar who were part of IC814 hijacking get eliminated in May7th operation? So i would also say yesterday bombing itself wasn't symbolic but the briefing about it by the two women officers was symbolic. I don't think terrorists would be crazy if they start recognizing the futility of dying before achieving any of their goals.Israel's philosophy of eliminating the leader, his replacement and replacement of the replacement is from the lessons they learnt in dealing with terror from the time that nation was formed.Only thing we need to take care is not inflict heavy collateral damage like Israelis intentionally seem to inflict..they are doing genocide literally

[prasen9]

If you know someone is preparing to bomb a tourist destination, you can simply arrest them. That is how several attempts at bombing in the U.S. has been stopped in the years since 9-11. Great to know that Israel's strategy worked. Oh wait, what was that 1100 Israelis butchered? Also, when you find out where in India and Pakistan whoever is plotting a terror attack, you can take them in custody in India and in Pakistan, you track them until they cross the border. For those that do not cross the border, intelligence agencies target them to be killed extrajudicially in the hostile country.

Nothing works 100% of the time. Killing leaders via intelligence means is often more successful. For example, in this case, after a huge military exercise, the family of a leader was killed but he is alive and doing well. Very little has been achieved strategically. Symbolically it is another story. But, real deterrence is via much improved intelligence and covert actions.

[srini]

Abdul Rauf Azhar who got killed was a terrorsit, he is the IC814 hijacker and is part of his family, Masood Azhar's own brother. There are videos of Military leaders attending his funeral and by the way there is no gurantee Masood Azhar himself didn't die in this strike, he was never seen outside after this strike including in the fenerals that included his near family members but the statement was isssued on his behalf that he would have been glad to lose his life...something like that. Could well be a statement issued to make-believe that he is still alive !!

It was ironic to see Pak saying the state doesn't sponsor terrorism, but terrorsits being given state funerals with Pak flags covered.

[jayakris]

What became extremely clear over the last three days in India is the utter and complete destruction of any credibility that Indian news outlets (print and online press, as well as online and on-air media channels) ever had. Absolute and unmitigated disaster. The Hindu seems to be the only one source that simply stayed away from pushing out unconfirmed narratives. The others bought lies lock-stock-barrel and made up some of their own.

The whole set of news stories all over Indian press/media on Friday was unbelievable, about some sort of attack by India on Pakistan. Karachi port had been pummeled by INS Vikranth, Indian missiles falling all around Pak PM's house forcing him to go into a bunker, Islamabad and Rawalpindi under missile shower from us, General Muneer had been taken into custody by General Mirza, Balochistan already declared independence, Turkey has sent a C130 in a last-ditch effort to save Pakistan, Flight path of an aircraft with fleeing Pak leaders and Generals from Islamabad, Lahore totally under Indian control, with Indian army 60 km inside Pak... So on and so forth. Not one thing confirmed even partially by any foreign outlet journalist in India or Pakistan. Straight-up lies.

As the dust settled, and our MEA update from GOI on Friday evening only said "Pakistan sent 300-400 drones; we shot most of them down, but we took some hits and one person died", it seems like India had not at all been in any attack mode. Unbelievable that Indian journalists decided to lose their credibility enmasse over 24 ours like this. What the frig??

The reality seems to be that Pakistan was on a large scale drone intrusion attempt, that we basically stopped rather completely (but in the process people in many northwest border areas down to Punjab were runnin for cover, with blackouts and postponed PIL matches and all that). It is also pretty clear that Pakistan is unable to hit any targets in India, and we have neutralized them. All that happened in three days is that we did an initial strike very well and precisely early Wednesday morning. We have not moved any army columns anywhere, which means a conventional war was never anticipated. Pakistan/China got a win too, through pursuing and downing anywhere between 1 and 5 (probably two or three, and quite possibly one Rafale too) with an air-to-air missile - most probably a good one from China from a good jet from China too. The Chinese defense stocks rose 40% and Rafale stocks have dropped around 5%. After that, India's missile and drone defense grid seems to have held up remarkably well against Pak attacks with Turkish drones and probably surface-launched missiles. That is that.

The total "fog of war" chorus chanting by Indian press/media who were lying for a whole day, was noticed around the world. Both New York Times and Washington Post have articles focusing on it that came up by Friday night India time. The general hint from foreign journalists is that a few reputed top journalists in India seems to have been duped, and the rest of the Indian bandwaon-follower journalists simply followed suit. I mean, it was sad to see Malayala Manorama, one of the oldest and once-respected news outlet in India, writing an article about "Kochi's own daughter (INS Vikranth)" being "the Karachi hero". How pathetic!

I know that GOI does censor harshly in war times, and the current Govt is probably more competent than the Governments during past wars in censoring. But censoring is only for keeping away the truth. There is no easy compulsive mechanism for GOI to force our journalists to lie and make up falsehoods in chorus. All I can imagine is that some foolproof source that all top Indian journalists and Government sources trusted on his/her credibility, decided to fully lose/sacrifice their credibility to send out misinformation, that duped so many journalists in India. A very sad situation, if this is what happened.