Your opinion on dedollarisation

[HockeywithBilli]

^^ The decision is already made....You and me can't do anything now...Just wait for things to unfold....As I have already said 1-2 years (5 years at max)...
Well you can disagree with me and say all kind of negative things. I can only say that if you don't believe me, just watch things unfold!!!

[jayakris]

^^ The decision is already made....You and me can't do anything now...Just wait for things to unfold....As I have already said 1-2 years (5 years at max)...
Well you can disagree with me and say all kind of negative things. I can only say that if you don't believe me, just watch things unfold!!!

"Decision is made" on what?? India going with BRICS to launch a currency?

[HockeywithBilli]

^^ The decision is already made....You and me can't do anything now...Just wait for things to unfold....As I have already said 1-2 years (5 years at max)...
Well you can disagree with me and say all kind of negative things. I can only say that if you don't believe me, just watch things unfold!!!

"Decision is made" on what?? India going with BRICS to launch a currency?

It could be multicurrency basket !!! I am not sure....But one thing is sure, for ending USA hegemony, you need combine power of Russia+ China+ India...If any one wicket goes down, USA will win.....But, after a BRICS meeting in Kazan, Russia where Both India and China sits on the table (just after border stand-off disengagement) , one thing is clear India+ China+ Russia combo is coming soon to dedollarise the world

[jayakris]

one thing is clear India+ China+ Russia combo is coming soon to dedollarise the world

Not going to happen. Period. India is not stupid. India will do bilateral arrangements like we have always been doing. Not going to give China control on this (as that will automatically happen).

[HockeywithBilli]

I know you would not believe...But I do my part of telling you guys what could happen...Now, rest on you to decide what to do!!

[prasen9]

^^ I am not a jyotishi who can predict exact date!!!! My point is that if everything goes by plan, there will be sudden collapse in US Dollar by the end of year or may be 2026...Of course, USA will do everything to stop this....So, there is 1% chance dedollarisation will not happen...But seeing the things going by, there is good possibility US dollar wise to 90-95 INR in next 6 months before eventually sudden collapse and then chaos on street of USA!!!
Of course, You can laugh or ridicule me for this prediction....So you can wait a year or two to see things unfold!!!

Not going to happen. The only way this may happen is if the Republicans do not increase the debt limit. There may be chaos on the street(sic) of USA but that will be for deeper reasons than just the collapse of the USD. Anyway, if India suddenly becomes stronger economically and the USD falls versus the INR that is not much of an issue. The USD against the Euro is of much bigger consequence or a few other currencies.

Dedollarisation is already happening. People will be going to other currencies because it makes our trade with Russia and China cheaper. And, it will continue to do so.

The U.S. will not do everything to stop this because a bozo is the president. He does not even know what to do economically. He is a slogan master and a true master at that. Wrt actually doing constructive things, he is useless.

[prasen9]

one thing is clear India+ China+ Russia combo is coming soon to dedollarise the world

Not going to happen. Period. India is not stupid. India will do bilateral arrangements like we have always been doing. Not going to give China control on this (as that will automatically happen).

I doubt India can control whether the dollar crashes or not. Or whether the Chinese currency becomes in vogue or not. China will gain control if its bets all over Africa and Asia pan out with respect to some segment of the international trade market. Its share will increase but the west will not trade in Chinese Yuan. They will do so in the Dollar or maybe if somehow the U.S. dollar crashes in the Euro. They may even trust the Japanese Yen but people in the west will not trade in the Chinese Yuan. Unless there is a sudden dramatic collapse of all of the Western economies and the whole world depends upon handouts from the Chinese, this will not happen.

[HockeywithBilli]

[HockeywithBilli]

Lo, Modiji also gave warning!!!

[prasen9]

Politicians say whatever bullshit they want all the time. That does not mean what they say will happen. They say it for political reasons. There is no economic underpinning, often, to what they say. They do it to sway public people to their side. Modi is the same guy who said that black money will be gone due to demonitization or some such nonsense. He is no economic genius. Reality has a way of showing up PR people's BS.

Here is India's growth rate over the years. Growth Rate The Modi government has done not much better nor much worse than previous governments. India's growth has been about the same. He just talks much. As they say, empty vessels ... If you look at the Human Development Index, we have slightly regressed on a relative scale. We were about 129 before he came to power and are about 133 or 134 now. About the same I'd say. A few countries leapfrogged us.

Anyway, Modi has very little real influence on the dollar - the topic of this thread.

[PKBasu]

^^ The decision is already made....You and me can't do anything now...Just wait for things to unfold....As I have already said 1-2 years (5 years at max)...
Well you can disagree with me and say all kind of negative things. I can only say that if you don't believe me, just watch things unfold!!!

"Decision is made" on what?? India going with BRICS to launch a currency?

The basic problem with the idea of a BRICS currency is that the Chinese renminbi and Indian rupee are both non-convertible currencies. It would be fatuous to have a non-convertible currency as the anchor for the BRICS. The South African Rand is the only convertible currency among the original BRICS members, but nobody is likely to want ZAR to be the anchor currency for the BRICS, especially given that South Africa is a mineral-exporting economy -- which will have different factors driving its movement than the manufacturing and services-oriented China, India and Brazil economies.

[arjun2761]

There is no way that any of these individual currencies will gain significant adoption. They would have to introduce a new currency (a “Brick”) like the Europeans did with the Euro.

However the European countries have more in common than the BRICS whose only thing in common is their low per capita incomes…

[prasen9]

There is no way that any of these individual currencies will gain significant adoption. They would have to introduce a new currency (a “Brick”) like the Europeans did with the Euro.

However the European countries have more in common than the BRICS whose only thing in common is their low per capita incomes…

Which would be a terrible idea. The Greek crisis showed how bad it is to have a common currency but not a common political system, central bank (at least in practice), etc. You cannot let the currency devalue to respond to fiscal issues and have increased exports, etc. Actually, having similar incomes (more importantly, similar economic issues/situations) is perhaps better than having some common democratic values, etc. But, if one economy becomes stronger and another weaker, etc., countries with the common currency will not be so nimble. So, this is not going to happen either.

All of this talk about whole-sale dedollarisation is 90% nonsense. Where they can, they are already using other currencies. That will increase slowly perhaps.

[HockeywithBilli]

All of this talk about whole-sale dedollarisation is 90% nonsense. Where they can, they are already using other currencies. That will increase slowly perhaps.

You can believe what you want to......Let me tell you again USD will rise to 95-100 in fews months then sudden collapse to 60-65 INR till December!!!! If you think this is bullshit, then just wait for a year, everything would be crystal clear....

[prasen9]

Very good. We will see. Everything is possible but that is unlikely. Especially, since you have given no reason why the U.S. economy will tank so badly and the Indian economy will rise like magic.

There is only one reason this can happen. If the Republicans do not increase the debt limit and the U.S. defaults. Very unlikely. But, one can never say never with the crazies. But, even then, everyone in the world will go down the drain with the U.S. and there is no reason India will not be effected by a global crash of markets and suddenly rise.