Indian Shooting thread

[jayakris]

Yes, I agree in general Esha has been better in finals than Manu but here in 3 trials Manu has done quite well.

In 10M Air pistol, Manu has won 1 trial and was second in another, Esha has won 1 trial and has been second in another, Rhythm has won 1 trial, second in another and third in another, so all have been even in fact Rhythm slightly better.

In 25M pistol, Manu has been really good, topped 2 trials which we quite good by world standards and runner up in other 2, Esha won 1 trial and was third in another but missed out on top 3 in other 2 trials.

So, looks like Manu is slowly overcoming her final jitters and if she can do that at Paris can be real medal contender in 25M pistol. In 10M Air pistol scores in qualification have not been that good and not sure if they can make the final.

Plus, one of these days the stars must align for Manu in a final, no? Let us hope so.

[sameerph]

Yes, in the meantime today's results turned tables in womens 10M Air rifle.

Asian games silver medalist Ramita was lying third and shot an excellent 636.4 today with a 107 in the final series ( this is as you can get at world level, I think close to qualifying world record) to jump to the top. 3 others were close but finally Ramita and Elavenil qualified for Paris.

In mens 10M Air rifle, Rudranksh Patil topped today's trials but could not overcome earlier deficit. So, newcomer Sandeep and Arjun Babuta qualified.

Finals should have been given more weightage, results are getting decided even before the finals.

[sameerph]

Manu hits a 580+ score in the 4th trials to top that. Rhythm finished second.

So, overall team looks like this based on the announced criteria-

50M rifle 3 positions-
Men- APS Tomar, Swapnil Kusale
Women- Sift Kaur Samra, Anjum Modugil

10M air rifle-
Men- Arjun Babuta, Sandeep Singh
Women- Ramita, Elavenil Valarivan

10M Pistol-
Men- Sarabjot Singh, Arjun Cheema
Women- Manu Bhaker, Rhythm Sangwan

25M Pistol-
Men - Anish Bhanwala, Vijayveer Siddhu
Women- Manu Bhaker, Esha Singh

Overall satisfactory team except 10M Air rifle where this new kid Sandeep performed exceptionally in 3 trials in qualifying but could not do much in finals. Would have preferred Rudranksh Patil ahead of him.

Based on this, we should now do probabilistic medal tally for shooting. I will later check how the scores compare with world standards.

[Sin Hombre]

Yes, I agree in general Esha has been better in finals than Manu but here in 3 trials Manu has done quite well.

In 10M Air pistol, Manu has won 1 trial and was second in another, Esha has won 1 trial and has been second in another, Rhythm has won 1 trial, second in another and third in another, so all have been even in fact Rhythm slightly better.

In 25M pistol, Manu has been really good, topped 2 trials which we quite good by world standards and runner up in other 2, Esha won 1 trial and was third in another but missed out on top 3 in other 2 trials.

So, looks like Manu is slowly overcoming her final jitters and if she can do that at Paris can be real medal contender in 25M pistol. In 10M Air pistol scores in qualification have not been that good and not sure if they can make the final.

Good point with the caveat that the Olympic finals will only have those are having a good day. In these trials, all 5 get to participate in the finals.

Looks like Sift won the finals again.

With Sandeep, if he is good at qualifying, that would help us in the mixed event.

[Sin Hombre]

Based on this, we should now do probabilistic medal tally for shooting. I will later check how the scores compare with world standards.

sameer - checking if you are still planning to do this?

[sameerph]

Will try to put together in 1-2 days.

[sameerph]

Ok, my analysis based on scores in 4 trials-

10M Air rifle-

Men- One needs around 630.5 to reach the final. Arjun Babuta went past that score in 2 of the 4 trials, Sandeep Singh went past that in 3 of the 4 trials. So, I would say quit a decent chance ( about 60% probability ) for at least one of them to reach the final but not sure if they have in it them to do well in finals, would be only around 10% chance of that . So, I agree with overall probability of 0.05 to win a medal in this event

Women- One needs better around 631.5 to reach the final. Ramita went past that only once in last trials by huge margin and came close a couple of times, Elavenil went past that comfortably in 2 of the 4 trials. So, again good chance (50%) that 1 of them makes the finals and they are good in the finals as well, so I would put probability of a medal in this event at 0.20.

50M rifle 3 positions-
Men - one needs around 588 to make the finals. Aishwarya went comfortably past that 3 out 4 times, Swapnil only once ( although hit 587 twice), Aishwary is favorite to reach final, Swapnil outside hope, Aishwary has been decent in finals too, so would put medal probability of 0.20.

Women- here one needs around 590 to make the finals. Sift went past that only in last trials with 593, Anjum went past that in third trials with 592. Overall Sift has consistently gone past 590 before too and she has been very good in finals. So, I would probability in this event at 0.30.

10M Air rifle mixed team

We will have 2 teams and with lower number of participants compared to individuals, I would probability at 0.30.

10M Air pistol-

Men- Around 580-581 needed to make the final- Sarabjot had 581, 581 and 584 in 3 of the trials, 581 is touch and go to make finals, 584 should make it easily.
Arjun had 583 in 2 of the 4 trials and 580 in another, again decent chance for 1 of them to make the final, but final scores have been iffy, so same probability as mens 10M air rifle-0.05

Women- need around 577-578 to make the final, Manu had 580 and 581 in 2 of the 4 trials, 577 in another, Rhythm had 584 in 1 trials, 578 in another but very low in other 2. Decent chance for Manu to make the finals but her past finals record in international events is iffy, so only 0.05 probability.

25M Pistol-
Men- Our weakest event in rifle/pistol, Need 583-584 for finals, Anish went past that twice, but Vijayveer not even once, so only 0.05 probability for Anish

Women- need 584-585 for final, Manu had 585 in 2 trials, 586 in third trial, she has even gone past 290 in major events, Esha had 585 in one and 586 in another but lower in other 2.
If both Manu and Esha make the final for which there is decent chance, good chance for a medal - 0.20 probability.

Air pistol mixed team- would put probability at 0.10.

In womens skeet and mixed skeet team - I would put probability at 0.05 each, nothing in trap.

So, if I take the total, medal probability would be around 1.60.

Putting it in simple terms, I expect at least 1 medal from men/women rifle 3 positions/ womens 10M air rifle, 1 from between both mixed teams/ womens 25M pistol . These are our 6 strongest events. Anything else will be a bonus.

[Sin Hombre]

Thanks sameer, editing the shooting forecasts.

women's 50m rifle 3 positions 0.5 --> 0.3
mixed 10m air rifle team 0.3
men's 50m rifle 3 positions 0.3-->0.1 --> 0.2
mixed 10m pistol team 0.1
women's 10m air rifle 0.1 --> 0.2
women’s 10m air pistol 0.1 --> 0.05
women's 25m pistol 0.1-->0.2
men's 25m pistol 0.1-->0.05
men's 10m rifle 0.05
men's 10m pistol 0.05

This adds up to 1.5, same as what I had before, so pretty unchanged in total.

mixed skeet team 0.01
women's skeet 0.01
women's trap 0.01
men's skeet 0.01
men's trap 0

I had 0.04 for skeet and rifle vs 0.1 but I think we can leave this unchanged given there were no trials.

[sameerph]

Yes, we can update the same after Munich world cup in early June which is the only big tournament left before Paris I think.

[sameerph]

Munich world cup started today. Some of the Indian shooters wanted to skip this world cup to prepare for the olympics. So, federation has allowed them to chose weather to participate or not or participate in events of their choice. I am not sure who all have pulled out but Manu Bhaker has pulled out as she wanted to undergo physiotherapy and strength and conditioning sessions, besides wanting to travel to Switzerland and Italy for fine tuning of her guns and grips.

Anyway, 10M Air rifle men and women qualifications were done today,

In mens 10M, none of the Indian qualified for the final. But, that is because Arjun Babuta who shot an excellent 635.1 and finished second behind Chinese but Arjun had chosen only to participate for ranking points that is choosing to skip the finals. In other significant result, Sandeep Singh shot 631.4 and narrowly missed final by inner 10's but finished much better than Rudranksh Patil and Divyansh Singh Parmar who have claiming Sandeep's spot in olympics team because he is inexperienced. Now, that debate is settled.

In womens 10M, Ramita qualified for the final which will be held tomorrow with a 633 finished 4th. Other Indian Paris team Elavenil finished outside 50 with a score of 628.3

[sameerph]

Ramita finished 6th in womens 10M Air rifle final.

Also in mixed team rifle events, none of the Indian teams could make to top 4 and medal matches. Unfortunately, for both teams one of the shooters shot badly for us to miss a chance to finish in top 4. With Ramita, Arjun Babuta who had shot so well in qualifying yesterday shot badly while among other pair Elavenil faltered while Sandeep Singh did well. If we add up Ramita and Sandeep's scores they would have stood 4th.

In womens 25M, Esha Singh made it to the final with a decent 584.

[Sin Hombre]

Let's see how the rest of the WC go but may have to revise down our shooting predictions as things stand. I don't have a lot of faith from Elavenil for example.

[sameerph]

Yes, let us see how this world cup goes, this almost an olympic level field.

Today, Esha Singh finished 6th in womens 25M pistol final.

Vijayveer Siddhu narrowly missed final by inner 10's but Anish faltered on the second day after being in top 6 on day 1.

[sameerph]

Today in mens 10M air pistol. Sarabjot Singh topped the qualifiers with an excellent score of 588, a score which will top the qualifiers anywhere. Our other olympic bound shooter, Arjun Cheema shot a decent 582 and narrowly missed the final by 1 point.

In womens 10M, Rhythm Sangwan started with a poor series of 91 and even after recovery could score only 575, 3 points away from the final.

Lets us what Sarabjot can do in the final tomorrow.

[Sin Hombre]

Sarabjot wins the gold in the finals. Hopefully we win atleast one more medal from this WC.

Simra (of course) and Aishwary in the 50m finals and 10m pistol mixed left.