Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[Kumar]

So, what the heck is going on? Who is hoarding vaccines now? Somebody's birthday or marriage anniversary coming up?

Well, Amit Shah’s birthday is October 22nd. need to check Modi’s mother birthday

[jayakris]

^^ October 22nd??? Damn... If they hoard vaccines for that long, they may need to do 30M a day for 2 or 3 days to catch up!

Anyway, we had +22.6K cases today, from 1516K tests at 1.49%... Outside Kerala, the positivity is 0.70%... The seven-day average came down by a -80 to 22,112 today... There were 315 deaths but I think about 50 were old ones in Maharashtra.

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ICMR Update: 578,657,484 total tests... Wednesday tests: 1,431,819... Lab count: 2983

[Kumar]

^^^ Yeah, something is off right now, on vaccination.

Could just be that demand is not there. We are probably kind of in a similar boat like earlier this year. We are not going to get 80-90% unless there is an outreach program that pretty much goes to people’s homes.

If I were to guess, govt may soon reduce the interval for second dose to get more jabs in.

[jayakris]

You may be right, Kumar. This may be not be a supply issue but a demand problem, now that first dose people are up to 70% of adult population. The remaining people may need to be literally pulled out of their homes with incentives or something. This still may not be vaccine hesitancy, really. I don't think Indians are buying the BS these right-wing nuts in the western world are into. The stragglers may be just people who aren't aware or aren't taking it seriously. They have their lives' problems, so going to get vaccinated is probably not their priority right now. We may need to open it up for school kids above 12 or something now (or reduce the second dose interval).

[prasen9]

Need to have mobile clinics going to people's homes.

[jayakris]

^^ I believe they are doing that in a lot of places. So many videos are out there of health workers taking chilled boxes of vaccines on their shoulders and climbing hills and walking across streams to reach remote houses and villages. A good portion of the remaining 30% of adults can be reached only like that, I am sure. Tough job!

[Omkara]

Mumbai reported 600+ cases, maybe Wednesday high but it's higher than last Wednesday.

And let's not talk of vaccine hesitancy in india. If someone has taken one dose, I am sure he is dying to take next one. So some supply issue for sure or its Amit Shah's birthday.

[jayakris]

^^ Not hesitancy or anything. None of us feel that there is hesitancy. No reports of it either. It is just difficulty in getting people to know about vaccines and taking it, among the remaining 29% of adults. A lot of poor people in villages probably have no idea and are in no hurry. The second dosers are waiting, but their turn is not up yet. Actually even some of them may need to be pushed and prodded to go out to the vaccination center because they all think Covid is all gone and are least bit bothered, possibly.

It is certainly not a supply issue, Omkara. There are close to 70M doses sitting with the states (excluding some that are in the pipeline), and we did only 4.5M today. Can't be a supply issue.

[Omkara]

Then maybe some other glitch in the process we don't know of. I am sure then the process will pick up. We had a delayed start but our vaccination process needs a big round of applause. Let's wait and see.

Can the government all of a sudden change the gap between two doses back to let's say 60 days?

[jayakris]

Can the government all of a sudden change the gap between two doses back to let's say 60 days?

I guess they can. Why not? Probably can't let everybody past 8 weeks to become eligible immediately, which may cause too much rush... But basically say that those who have gone past 11 weeks are eligible, and then a week later make it those past 10 weeks, then a week later, those past 9 weeks, and then those past 8 weeks. Can create more demand that way, if demand is the issue.

[Kumar]

Can the government all of a sudden change the gap between two doses back to let's say 60 days?

I guess they can. Why not? Probably can't let everybody past 8 weeks to become eligible immediately, which may cause too much rush... But basically say that those who have gone past 11 weeks are eligible, and then a week later make it those past 10 weeks, then a week later, those past 9 weeks, and then those past 8 weeks. Can create more demand that way, if demand is the issue.

A very good article that explained India’s decision to delay the interval to 12 weeks.

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 143_1.html


There are benefits to the 12 week interval. I seriously believe that efficiency of the vaccine would better at 12 weeks interval rather than 8 weeks interval. I also wonder if the risk of blood clots could potentially drop with a longer interval especially for younger adults.

As mentioned in the article, may be reduce interval for population 60+, but keep it as 12 weeks for others. Still surprised to see around 2 laksh people getting vaccine in the 60+ group today (with almost 5 million getting their vaccine last week)

[Kumar]

Mumbai reported 600+ cases, maybe Wednesday high but it's higher than last Wednesday.

And let's not talk of vaccine hesitancy in india. If someone has taken one dose, I am sure he is dying to take next one. So some supply issue for sure or its Amit Shah's birthday.

We are at least 40 million behind on our second doses. We should have fully vaccinated 300 million people by this time, but only 250 million have got their second doses. Wondering if there is not sustained campaign for second doses. It is also possible govt is not targeting second dose trying to get first dose fully completed. Once we start seeing serious drop in first dose numbers, we may start seeing second doses pick up steam

Also if covishield is not approved for under 18, how are we going to get his population vaccinated ? Covaxin(assuming it will be approved for kids) and zycovid may not be able to meet the volume of covishield.

[jayakris]

Meanwhile, the Thursday morning PIB release says that the vaccine stocks with the states are now 76.4M !!!... They keep sending some 10M every day but the states are using only about 5M to 7M a day for the past few days. We need to start doing 10+ for a few days now. Gosh, this is a quick reversal of the situation! Surplus vaccine stocks??

Or is it some sort of a ploy to make sure of no vaccine shortage soon after the exports start (this week, right?) to prevent the opposition, Pappu and Chidambaram, from making a hue and cry that Modi is giving it away to his friends abroad and causing domestic shortage?

We are at least 40 million behind on our second doses. We should have fully vaccinated 300 million people by this time, but only 250 million have got their second doses.

About 17% fewer than expected is probably not too bad. I am sure there are about that many people who are just not borthered to go get a second shot, as they think Covid is all gone. Some 10% are plain lazy and have forgotten the vaccine matter altogether. Indians have other things to worry about, in their lives. My guess.

[jayakris]

Not bad in Kerala. As expected there was a 3626 drop in Kerala from last Wednesday. +12,288 from 99,312 tests at 12.37% TPR... So KER will contribute a -518 today to India's drop. Getting there... getting there... drip, drop, drip, drop...

But the anemic vaccination rate shows no improvement in India. Looks like only under a 6M again today, as it is just 4.8M as of 7:30 pm. Ridiculous. We may not even get to 40M vaccinations this week, at this rate. This thing is totally grinding to a halt, just as we stockpile vaccines to the tune of some 80M+ .... The supply is there, but no consumption.

[jayakris]

It is a +21.5K today from about 1496K tests at 1.44%... Nice -832 drop in our average, as expected, to 21,280... 276 deaths, with 135 outside Kerala. Again, small clusters probably are forming here and there though.

Jharkhand seems to be finding some 20+ lately, a bit more than earlier. Extra handful of cases in Dhanbad and Jamshedpur areas. Gujarat is also having a handful more of cases than earlier. Maybe some small clusters are coming up but not growing, but we need to watch. For good news, TN has been dropping a bit lately, along with AP and Telangana. Mumbai had around +450, so nothing seems to be catching fire there either. The northeast is calming down as well, with Sikkim and Meghalaya now down below 5% in TPR... Actually only Kerala and Mizoram had positivities above 4.5, and both were under 13.5%... Looking good, but this isn't over or anything.

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ICMR Update: 580,043,190 total tests... Thursday tests: 1,385,706... Lab count: 2983