Pretty clear that vaccinations prevented at least 20 or 25 deaths among the Punjab policemen.
Wow! That's impressive! Apparently even the policemen that were shot in the head or pierced by swords by miscreants did not die after receiving the second jab!
Speaking of jabs, they are using a special one formulated for the police force there ... the Pun-jab (Pun intended)!
jai_in_canada wrote: ↑Tue Jun 29, 2021 3:36 pmSpeaking of jabs, they are using a special one formulated for the police force there ... the Pun-jab (Pun intended)!
Btw, anyone else as confused as I am watching Wimbledon? Almost no one is wearing masks and spectators seem to be at full capacity. I thought the Wimbledon organizers said before the tournament started that they would allow 50% capacity. That's on the one hand.
On the other hand, there's a Delta Wave quite obviously building in the UK in the past 4 weeks. Enough for Germany and Hong Kong to ban flights from the UK.
So how come Wimbledon is keeping players in a bubble but allowing full crowds with no physical distancing or mask mandate? Even if they are only allowing vaccinated people in, there is still not enough evidence regarding the effectiveness of current vaccines against the Delta mutant. All pieces of this puzzle don't fit for me.
^^^ Everybody is pretty clueless these days. But I guess they are rolling the dice based on anecdotal info from India and some early results here and there that AZ and Covaxin did work to prevent deaths. So they are letting the wave go on, basically, and assuming that it won't end up in deaths. Let people get mild or moderate Covid and it's their problem - that must be the idea. Delta doesn't seem to be particularly worse in symptom severity, though virulent in its transmissibility.
I just don't understand educated people (of the kind that go to tennis events) being this stupid in not wearing a mask though. Who wants to get Covid anyway, even if you have only a very low chance to die from it?
Keeping the players in a bubble probably makes some sense. Just don't want them to get sick and miss playing days. Their being 100% healthy is more important than the general public's. I guess.
Let above Wimbledon. Have a look at matches in Euro. It is being played in mutiple venues in Europe and at some of the venues say in France or Germany they are bit conservative and looks to have allowed only 50% capacity. But, I saw couple of matches played at Budapest, Hungary and the crowds were really brimming to the full and not a single soul with a mask, I see Hungary has only about 100+ daily cases but still. Can't help feeling this Euro 2020 will turn out to be super spreder event. or May be not. Lets see.
We had +46.1K cases today... From 1917K tests at 2.41% positivity... The positivity has pretty much stagnated at around that figure for a week... The 7-day average only fell by about 670 to 47.8K... The deaths were 819, and Maharashtra did not say how many of their 231 were earlier deaths.
We have flattened in everything pretty quickly. It doesn't look like we will drop to much below 40K on seven-day daily average. Maybe 35K if we are lucky. But that is a pretty high number that raises the possibility of mutants forming somewhere (maybe it already has, in Kerala).
The scribe really attacks Adar Poonawalla, Krishna Ella, etc. But this is probably the reality, and this is what I had always felt. That the issue really was a matter of how much profit the vaccine-makers can make. This was, in a roundabout way, really slowing down production. I had said this earlier. If we let them make profit, we can get them to produce more. It is debatable how well our Government did, in striking a balance on things. Not too well, perhaps.
sameerph wrote: ↑Tue Jun 29, 2021 6:39 pm
Let above Wimbledon. Have a look at matches in Euro. ..
Can't help feeling this Euro 2020 will turn out to be super spreder event. or May be not. Lets see.
It will be interesting to see how this turns out. May be the powers that be know something that is not public knowledge yet.
Meanwhile yesterday in Central London there was a massive anti-lockdown protest featuring hundreds of thousands of people because Boris Johnson delayed opening up the country by a month due to the Delta variant.
Yet in the US many places seem to be back to normal. For example, at the White House press briefings reporters are sitting shoulder to shoulder with no mask indoors.
Now Australia and Israel, in addition to the UK, are reporting increasing cases.
In Canada, British Columbia said it was going to open up, but then in another report the same head of public health said that the Delta variant was a concern because it could cause a new wave anytime.
All kinds of contradictory reports all over the place. I find it all weird and unbelievable.
jayakris wrote: ↑Tue Jun 29, 2021 7:44 pm
This is a really good read. From a US news outlet, written by Aparna Gopalan from Boston (who is seemingly an out-and-out leftist)
...the issue really was a matter of how much profit the vaccine-makers can make....
This is one topic where both the Left and the Right agree in a weird way. I read somewhere that there had been a campaign for a few years that wanted to pass laws in the US that would make it illegal for Pharma companies to profit on vaccines.
Right now I don't blame the Pharma companies. They are fulfilling their fiduciary duties to their shareholders by profiting from this. In fact it would be illegal for them not to.
Some have alleged that this whole pandemic was designed to sell vaccines because pharmaceutical companies were finding it very difficult to make money from therapeutic drugs. It costs billions and 10+ years to come out with a new drug. Then the patent is only valid for 20 years. Plus the market is limited. And pharma companies have huge liability risk from the drugs being ineffective or harmful. So pharmaceutical companies have to charge enormous amounts to recoup their investments and cover for liabilities.
Vaccines, on the other hand, are quick and cheap to develop and manufacture, present no liability risk to their makers, and the market is the entire planet.
So it is plausible, although it would be diabolical if true, that multinational pharma companies along with the corrupt transnational/national NGOs like the WHO are colluding on this. Sure sounds like a crazy conspiracy hypothesis. But today's conspiracy hypothesis is tomorrow's idea worth exploring. Just like the Wuhan lab leak hypothesis was dismissed a year ago as a crazy idea from Trump supporters. Now there are calls by Australia, US, EU etc for China to allow full access for investigation.
I read an article from either of the two—Adar or Ella—(or maybe it was a scribe?) clearly stating that they have to make profit and how that’s better for the greater good, as Jay had postulated earlier, and with what I am in agreement too.
Yet another not so positive reference to SII and BB.
In the next report, EU parochialism combined with SII's failure to apply for approval. EU approves their flavour of AZ and not the Indian flavour. This basically means all vaccinated Indians cannot (or might find it harder) to travel to EU countries.
Forecast versus Actual Update as of Tue, Jun 29, 2021
Jay’s Forecast for new daily cases for Tue, Jun 29 = 39,000
Actual new daily cases for Tue, Jun 29 = 45,699
Forecast Error = -17%
************
JIC’s forecast for 7-day average new daily cases for week Tue, Jun 22 to Mon, Jun 28 = 40,000
Actual 7-Day Average New Daily Cases for week Tue, Jun 22 to Mon, Jun 28 = 48,935
Forecast Error = -22%
Here are the forecasts for the next 4 weeks.
* Jay’s forecast for daily new cases on Tue, Jul 06 = 31K.
JIC’s forecast for 7-day average daily new cases for Jun 29-Jul 05 = 30K.
* Jay’s forecast for daily new cases on Tue, Jul 13 = 26K.
JIC’s forecast for 7-day average daily new cases for Jul 06-Jul 12 = 20K.
* Jay’s forecast for daily new cases on Tue, Jul 20 =23K.
JIC’s forecast for 7-day average daily new cases for Jul 13-Jul 19 =15K.
* Jay’s forecast for daily new cases on Tue, Jul 27 = 21K.
JIC’s forecast for 7-day average daily new cases for Jul 20-Jul 26 = 15K.
Certainly appears like both forecasts are already looking to be too optimistic (especially mine). But the virus can surprise, hopefully pleasantly this time. Wave 1.0 was very symmetrical from its initial low in Apr 2020 to its peak in Sep 2020 and its final low in Feb 2020. Wave 2.0 is not looking very symmetrical right now, with it leveling off at the back end a lot higher than where it started in March 2021. However, as long as the numbers continue to drop, even if at a more gradual rate than they went up, it’s good. Hopefully Wave 3.0 holds off, although there seem to be some ominous signs of swells. All we can do is watch what unfolds, count our blessings and hope for mitigated misfortune.
suresh wrote: ↑Wed Jun 30, 2021 10:09 am
My prediction for the seven day moving average on July 6 is 44K and July 13 is 41K. I am not going beyond that.
OK, Suresh, I will add your forecast to the tracking for the next 2 weeks. More the merrier in this game of guessing what the virus is going to do.
JIC, we can throw all the forecasts out. The curve suddenly flattened last week, as Kerala completely flattened and MAH also slowed last week. No point in those earlier forecasts now! If Kerala starts dropping again somehow, we can make a new set of forecasts.
Meanwhile Kerala did 140,727 tests and reported 13,658 cases just now. So the positivity dropped to 9.71, and it is under 10 finally for a regular weekday... Let us see if any drops starts happening in the coming days.
