Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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jayakris
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Sure enough, it is +4092 in Maharashtra, a rise of 500 from yesterday. I hate being right in my bad hunches. Was dreading it for the last 14 days or so when I noticed a serious reluctance in numbers going down in some places here and there in MAH. Now we know why. Here we go again.

If it was in any other state, I would have had hopes that some quick actions would be taken to contain it. And to our bad luck, it is Maharashtra. That means, no hope. Messers Thackeray and Tope have never shown any understanding of what this pandemic is about. The state with the most clueless excel-challenged officials advising the ministers too. Unfortunately, with the worst healthcare system in India to add to it (in the rural areas, seemingly).

The sad thing is that Kerala showed a good drop today to 4.6K (from 6K+ two weeks ago), as expected after they raised the testing a bit... But MAH went ahead of Kerala in positivity yesterday and it is much worse today. So, right on cue, Maharashtra is there to negate any good news. :damn:

So, we had +11.7K cases today, from about 715K tests at 1.60% positivity. 4.6K in KER, 4.1K in MAH, and 3K elsewhere. The 7-day average stays right at 11.4K, flat as flat can be. 90 deaths. But Maharashtra showed a rise in deaths too, with 40... Becoming more and more clear that serious trouble could be brewing in MAH.

----
ICMR Update: 206,716,634 total tests... Sunday tests: 486,122... really low even for a Sunday :( ... Lab count: 2379


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Here is the weekly update of state-wise vaccinations ranks on a per 1000 people (population) basis. Until the end of Saturday the 13th. We just started second doses for people on the 13th (Day 29 of vaccinations). So, people count and total-doses count are separately given.

Code: Select all

		Prsons	Total	Persons	Jabs
		(First	Jabs	per 1K	per 1K
		Doses)		People	People
Lakshadweep	1776	1776	25.371	25.371
Tripura		69196	69562	17.334	17.425
Sikkim		8335	8335	12.553	12.553
Himachal Pra.	81482	81957	11.162	11.227
Arunachal Pra.	15633	16094	10.394	10.701
Kerala		356322	356322	10.144	10.144
Gujarat		680326	680326	10.014	10.014
Ladakh		2904	2981	9.911	10.174
Uttarakhand	108974	108974	9.781	9.781
Jammu&Kashmir	128822	129629	9.757	9.818
Mizoram		11494	11568	9.643	9.705
Delhi		189351	191207	9.556	9.650
Odisha		411939	411939	9.433	9.433
Andaman/Nicobar	3646	3646	9.184	9.184
Chhattisgarh	261274	262107	9.096	9.125
Goa		13166	13683	8.549	8.885
Dadra/N.Haveli	2922	2963	8.117	8.231
Rajasthan	609568	609568	7.889	7.889
Karnataka	496159	496159	7.541	7.541
Telangana	278915	282188	7.494	7.582
Chandigarh	8660	8803	7.345	7.466
Manipur		22362	22417	7.207	7.224
Andhra Pradesh	356521	362341	6.827	6.939
Haryana		195745	196333	6.827	6.848
Madhya Pradesh	557105	557105	6.775	6.775
Maharashtra	682420	682609	5.587	5.588
Jharkhand	199008	200881	5.321	5.371
West Bengal	512772	515117	5.291	5.316
Nagaland	9684	9684	4.504	4.504
Daman and Diu	1121	1151	4.396	4.514
Meghalaya	13998	14089	4.342	4.370
Bihar		491233	491233	4.110	4.110
Puducherry	5953	6024	3.958	4.005
Uttar Pradesh	858602	858602	3.816	3.816
Assam		127566	129781	3.720	3.784
Punjab		103799	103858	3.476	3.478
Tamil Nadu	246420	247574	3.255	3.271
Miscellaneous	115057	115272		
				
INDIA		8240230	8263858	6.184	6.202
The ranking of the larger 22 states: HP (11.16), KER, GUJ, UK, J&K, DEL, ODI, CHG (9.09), RAJ, KAR, TEL, AP, HAR, MP, MAH (5.59), JH, WB, BIH, UP, ASM, PUN, TN (3.26)

That is, HP has done 1 person out of 90 people, and TN has done 1 out of 307 people in the states. Only Lashadweep (23.37 in 1000; 1 in 39) has done more than 1 in 50 so far. Only HP, KER, GUJ are over 1 in 100 among the larger states.

Of course, this won't do. It is like drops in the ocean.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Atithee »

Lots of people are skipping the second dose.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 836527.ece


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^^ Less than 1/10th of the 277K people who took shots on the first day (Jan 16) returned for a second dose on the 29th day (Feb 13). But the other 250K people have several more days to do it (up to 6 weeks, so 13 more days, I guess). So, I think this rate will go up. I would think (hope) that at least 50% would take a second shot during the 2 week window they have.

Later, if it stabilizes to a certain number of vaccinations in any week at our capacity, I will be happy if 2/3rd are first shots and 1/3rd second shots (which means half of the people returned). Or 60 percent first shots and 40% second on any given day (which means 67% return doses). If it is worse, then the blame is on the people, and we can't do much about it. Indians are not known to be the most disciplined people in such things, so 2/3rd of the people returning for a second shot should probably be taken as not too bad.

My bigger concern is on when we will hit say 15 million shots a week with 9 million first doses and 6 million second doses. That is where we need to be, if we hope to reach 300 million in a 5 month period. That is what she should look for. The current 5-year plan won't do. We are running at 1/6th the absolute minimum rate right now with 2.5 million shots this past week.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Atithee »

A reasonable phoren press article by an Indian scribe.

BBC
Coronavirus: Is the pandemic finally coming to an end in India?
Soutik Biswas - India correspondent
Sun, February 14, 2021, 4:22 PM

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-pand ... 35377.html


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^ Soutik Biswas has been a reasonable scribe all along. Occasionally he plays the part to sensationalize things a bit like when he wrote, "Is this India's Lombardy" about Bhilwara, but he is not anti-India at all and writes balanced articles.

This was a good article. It also made me write the long piece below, as we are still unclear of many things and need some logical conclusions and answers. Please see if you agree with my thinking or not (I may be wrong!)

I continue to be surprised that the epidemiologist do not talk enough about the mechanics of how such high levels of sero-prevalence happened (like 21% in India and some 30-40% in many parts of the US and Europe). 21 percent sero-prevalance means 300 million people in India, 30 times what we have tested and confirmed. In India's case, everybody just says it's because we massively under-count it. India is easy prey for attack, so I get it.

But what about USA, UK, Brazil and Western Europe? There also sero-pravalence would show something like 5 to 15 times the cases going uncounted. But nobody makes a big deal about it, nor do they blame the country for not testing enough.

Either way, the epidemiologists need to be telling us what this all means. They don't say a thing.

Isn't it obvious that people are getting antibodies through exposure, with their bodies fighting it off? Most of them are never getting infected, per se, because there wasn't enough viral loads in the exposure. Over the months a lot of people just get exposed and gain immunity, and none of them would've ever become positive on RT-PCR. So to say that US should've tested more and found 5 times more people makes no sense, because even 10 times more tests would not have found even twice as many of these cases. Same in India. We could do 30 times the tests and probably would find no more than 3 times the cases (30 million instead of 10). But the remaining 270 immune people are what matters. How does that population build up, and how did they become immune with antibodies?

That is, what affects the growth of the sero-prevalence numbers?

Kerala's sero-prevalence was around 11 percent in early January; half of India's. That would be less than 4 million of the 35 million having got exposure and achieved antibody immunity. About 5 times the tested and confirmed cases. Is Kerala picking up a higher fraction of cases? I seriously doubt it, because Kerala has tested much worse than most of India after community transmission started. Then why is the immune population only 4 or 5 times the count in Kerala (comparable to USA or Europe), and not 30 times like in the rest of India?

It has to be because only fewer people are "exposed" compared to those infected (tested and confirmed), right? .... But why only fewer in Kerala? It has to be hygiene and education/awareness in my view. People aren't getting the small viral loads fast or frequently enough over the months, compared to other places. Kerala is a much cleaner place than most of India. Same probably applies to places like Pune too. It seems to take longer in cleaner places for sero-prevalnce to get high enough to drop the curve, after community transmission start. Dharavi was the the first place to reach high enough sero-prevalence for numbers to go down, in Mumbai. Way back by August or something.

It seems the less hygienic and less careful populations of the world seem to have reached higher sero-prevalance faster, based on reported numbers. Nothing else explains the kind of numbers we see around the world. (Of course, cleaner and educated places may manage to prevent the first wave and stop the spread completely - like KOR, NZL, AUZ and even Kerala... But once community transmissions starts, cleanliness is only a disadvantage that prevents exposure in people)

Anyway, none of the experts seem to explain any of these, leaving us to figure it out ourselves, I guess. Or maybe they don't even know?

Then the epidemiologists miss the fact that you don't need herd immunity for the case curve to go down. It only needs some sort of high immunity level among the super-spreaders at that time. Once the sero-prevalence among them get high enough, maybe even 50-60% while the general population may be 10%, the circles of infection become smaller and smaller because of lack of super-spreader people. Then when other super-spreaders (people or events) emerge and attain some critical mass much later, another wave can start too. And they often do if there is a large untapped un-immune population left. That is typically in other places than where the earlier wave was.

This kind of actual dynamics are rarely mentioned by these so-called epidemiologists. Sounds like most of them are full of gas, to me. After one year of waiting to hear them say anything that makes sense, I have given up.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by rajitghosh »

Recovered finally from covid. Thanks for all your good wishes.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Hey Rajit good to hear that you and your family are recovered.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Atithee »

suresh wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:23 pm
Have you all followed the “pawri” memes? It’s hilarious. Learned about “Burgers” or “Borgors” and “Burger Bachchas.” Covid India has jumped on the bandwagon too.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^^ Yeah, pawris are not good... Ye mera car hai, yeh humari pawri hori hai, aur yeh humko Covir mil gai hai.... (I don't know Hindi, man... something like that :rofl: )

Meanwhile, we had +9.1K today, about 500 more than last Sunday's total. All because of Maharashtra's rise. 3.3K in MAH, 2.9K in KER and 2.8K elsewhere... The seven-day average went up slightly to 11.5K... Kerala fell to second spot behind Maharashtra after a long time of 2-3 months. Thanks to MAH doing only 37K tests at 9.0% positivity, we had a slightly worse 1.58% nationally, from about 577K tests. Actually, outside of Kerala and Maharashtra, our test positivity is an unbelievable 0.58% (2839 cases from about 500K tests).

-----
ICMR Update: 207,332,298 total tests... Monday tests: 615,664


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Atithee »

^^^Very good. My malayam is infinitely worse!

Here is one:

Ye (fill in the blank) hamara publication hai
Ye hum hain
Aur ye hum desh ki beizzati kar rahein hain.

English translation:
This is my publication (read phoren one)
This is me
And, this is me insulting the nation


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Here is another one that Covid India can use:

Ye hamari unsafe pawri hai
Ye Covid hai
Aur, ye hamari shav-yatra hori hai (showing a hearse or bier procession)

Some Twitter savvy forumite, please post it to covidindiaorg Twitter account. :rofl: :rofl:


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Ye ab humari spores-india pawri hori hai.

(By the way, that pakistani girl is very pretty!)


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Atithee »

Dananeer Mobeen aka Geena—yes, very pretty.