Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Sin Hombre
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Sin Hombre »

There is no second wave yet.

As we have seen both in the US and Europe, the second wave will hit much harder in terms of case count. I hope we have 2-3 months more of the current steady state of 50k cases, and hopefully can start vaccinating by then.

I would expect India to hit 200k daily cases if we had a second wave like Europe and the US.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

Yes, the 200K figure is what is scaring me.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by depleter »

No leadership anywhere....why can't they increase the testing....What happened to feluda? Wasn't it supposed to be in markets a week back. Why did they give the contract to only one company. When you tout a particular test as game changer why not go for multiple companies and make them produce in more quantities. It's not as if though the tests requirement will go away once the vaccine arrives. They are required for a long time.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^^ Yeah, no idea what happened to Feluda... We will see. But at least our positivity keeps dropping and the test numbers are not falling too much, though we would like to see it rise. Once the case numbers went to half it was before, I thought the test numbers will drop to half or 60%, but the tests only dropped by 10% or so, and they are all still doing a lot of tests (except in some four or five bad-area states where they refuse to do more). UP, BIH, KAR, AP, and TN are keeping their test numbers pretty much where they were, even while the case numbers dropped to less than half or one-third of what they were earlier.

We had +45.8K today (Saturday) from about 1164K tests, at a positivity of 3.94%... The first time that it fell below 4.0%... Nice.

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ICMR Update: 116,542,304 total tests... Saturday tests: 1,113,209... Lab count: 2073


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

Looks like Virus strain is mutating when it jumped from minks leading to culling of millions of minks! There is worry that this will drive down the efficiency of vaccine
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54842643


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by sameerph »

Delhi having real big spike now with a high of 7745 cases yesterday. Is it the pollution or cold which is causing such big spike when everyone else in India it seems to be coming down ?

Anywhere cases and tests per million population data available statewise for India ? I did not see it on Covid India site. That will show who is really doing better and worse in India.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^ It may be the opening of the Delhi metro, for all we know (though chances are low for that)... At this point, it is just a huge third wave in Delhi, and even knowing the general sources or reasons for it may not help much. They need to test a lot more and let people know early if they are infected, but they are unable to do that. Waiting for it to go down by itself, I guess. Not sure if that would work. They need to do a temporary lockdown or something because there are probably hospital issues already there. Deaths are up to 77 today. That is way too many.

Meanwhile, we have +46.7K today, from about 1117K tests at 4.18%. Flat as flat can be for a week, as our 7-day average of cases has only been plus or minus 100 or so from around 46,200 for 6 days now. Many states' numbers are still going down a bit, but Delhi and surrounding areas have a raging issue, and are adding numbers to balance the drop elsewhere. HP is showing big numbers for a small state, around 400-500 every day now too. So are the eastern districts of Haryana - Gurugram, Faridabad, Sonipat. UP has managed to keep the numbers from the Noida-Ghaziabad-Meerut area near Delhi to not go out of control (UP's testing has been phenomenal, so it is no surprise)... Thankfully, WB seems to have flattened and stopped growing for now. Actually there has really not been much of a rise that is visible after the festival season in WB, surprisingly. Chhattisgarh is also going down in numbers lately. So, it is only Kerala and the Delhi area adding big numbers (Some 15K-17K between them). Kerala also looks kinda flat now, but not dropping much.

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ICMR update: 118,572,192 total tests... Sunday tests: 835,401... Lab count: 2074


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Sin Hombre »

Surprised no discussion about the Pfizer phase 3 trials here.

This is excellent news. 90% efficacy is way more than I expected.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/cov ... -indicate/



This is also very positive for the other vaccine candidates.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/fou ... e-results/


Hopefully the AZN/Oxford trials also have similar positive results since India can produce a lot of those very quickly.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

The Pfizer vaccine will not be produced in India, right?

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ICMR Update: 119,615,857 total tests... Monday tests: 1,043,665... Lab count: 2080


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

jayakris wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:17 am The Pfizer vaccine will not be produced in India, right?

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ICMR Update: 119,615,857 total tests... Monday tests: 1,043,665... Lab count: 2080
That was my assumption! The vaccine needs to be stored at -70 C, this may not be generally available for Indians anytime soon


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Atithee »

Would it be cheaper to load people in a ship or plane and take them to a centralized facility or would that be not only more expensive, but also create a transmission risk due to close proximity during travel?


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by prasen9 »

It is just impossible to move people. They will not just move to get a vaccine leaving their job, etc. We will need to move the vaccines close enough using cold storage and then move people the last leg to the district center, etc. Or create a mobile van with a deep freezer and have it go everywhere.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Again, let's wait to know more. Pfizer could also be pulling a bit of a Moderna stunt, though it's probably not as bad... Let's wait for proper scientific scrutiny of their claims. Meanwhile, wait for the Oxford or Bharath biotech vaccines that india is ready with. They will hopefully work out too.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

We had +44.7K today, and it was a bit of a drop from last Tuesday. From about 1128K, for positivity 3.96%... Good to see it consistently below 4.00... The good news is that West Bengal is showing no sign of the kind of increase that I feared, and is actually inching down for the time being. All other places are going down too. Odisha has no higher-growth bad areas. Chattisgarh has been on a down-trend... Kerala also has seven-day averages falling (for a while) though only slowly. The only increases are in Delhi, HP, Haryana next to Delhi and a little bit in Rajasthan though at a low rate. But Delhi numbers are still rising, and we have no idea where it is going.

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ICMR update: 120,769,151 total tests... Tuesday tests: 1,153,294... Lab count: 2082