Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[Kumar]

https://news.mit.edu/2020/covid-19-cou ... ction-1029

This could be really a game changer! An APP that can identify asymptomatic COVID patients by recording and analyzing their cough

[jaydeep]

Yes, Interesting piece Kumar.

[sameerph]

Yes, good article.

Read this in today's Times of India -

Mumbai's next Covid peak will be smaller than previous surge

Here, TIFR is claiming that Mumbai will reach herd immunity levels till January 2021. I am not sure if this conclusion is correct.

[suresh]

TN is opening up colleges and schools (9-12 classes) from November 16. I am doubly nervous as I have a son who goes to college. Movie theatres are also being opened at 50% capacity.

[jayakris]

We had +37.6K today... It is actually more than the 36.1K we had last Monday, so our 7-day average rose slightly today again. But it was from 835K tests at 4.32% last Monday, but it was from 931K tests at 4.04% today, so I am not too concerned... But I think we hare levelling off right now at some value, and have to wait for KER, WB and DEL to start dropping substantially. No sign of that from those three states. Some other minor contributors like RAJ and CHD also need to drop but they seem to be in no mood to improve testing and dropping their numbers. What can we do to get these five states to improve their testing? Feluda?? .... By the way, where is Feluda? No news on anybody using it yet.

[Atithee]

Maybe feluda is waiting for Kulfi.

[Omkara]

With winter coming in and prediction of a harsh one, we should believe that this is the base on which the second wave will rise. For reasons unknown the festive season spike is yet to be seen.

[jayakris]

We are showing a slight tendency of rising numbers now... Had +50.5K today, a small bit more than from the previous Tuesday. But there were 1160K tests, so the positivity was 4.35%... Not bad. The 7-day average of daily additions have gone up at a small rate for the last 4 days.

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ICMR Update: 114,208,384 total tests... Wednesday tests: 1,209,425...

[suresh]

Several (9-10) states are showing positivity rates in excess of 8%. Hope some of them can bring those rates down.

[Omkara]

Total deaths have move to 700 levels after dipping to 500 levels for some time

[suresh]

Total deaths have move to 700 levels after dipping to 500 levels for some time

Is the next wave starting?

[Omkara]

Total cases still around 50k, so still don't know.

[jayakris]

Total deaths have move to 700 levels after dipping to 500 levels for some time

Is the next wave starting?

Actually real deaths have not gone up. MAH added some reconciled numbers the last two days, that's all. But just like the case numbers have been flat this week, the death total has also stopped dropping. It is dropping in TN, KAR, AP etc but Delhi, CHG etc are adding numbers to counterbalance it now.

I don't know if it is a second wave yet. I don't think so. A few small states are showing some rises but otherwise the current rise is all around Delhi and some in Haryana and Rajasthan. You can see that testing has been bad for a while. Theses current bad numbers are all from poorly testing states. A rise in positivity is natural when the case numbers go up, but if it is for weeks or months like in KER, WB, CHG, DEL etc (when nearby places like JH, BIH, ASM, UP etc are not showing rises), it is all still from deficiencies of testing.

But there is small rises here and there, which could be the result of recent festival season. But nothing drastic.

[jayakris]

We had +46.7K on Thursday. After 3-4 days, the 7-day average of new cases fell a teeny bit. It was from about 1179K tests at 4.04%... The good testing states keep doing it well... Testing is still all that matters, if you look at data. Karnataka being the really nice story over the last 3-4 weeks... They just did 116K tests, their highest... KAR keeps raising testing numbers as the case numbers keep dropping!!... But other bad-testing (or "stagnant-testing") states like KER, RAJ, DEL, CHG, WB etc are still doing their same bullshit. If they were to do their job, we would be seeing less than 10K cases per day by now.

ICMR Update: 115,429,095 total tests... Thursday tests: 1,220,711... Lab count: 2056

[jayakris]

Somebody should compare the graphs of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. 4 graphs of case numbers and testing numbers. These two states are quite similar in nature (I think - have not been in either place)... They had very similar numbers for months. Then Jharkhand started testing better. CHG did nothing. The timely "AG melas" that JKH did were impressive. Nobody gives any of these states credit. Nobody notices. But I was (and some of you may have been) watching this all along. The correlation between testing and the case numbers will be uncanny, as those 4 graphs will show.

Now JH has 894 deaths and CHG has 2360.

I will say that CHG allowed about 1400 extra deaths to happen due to bad testing.

(Then extrapolate the thought to Maharashtra, and you will see that the mandarins there have allowed 30,000 extra deaths to happen. Sleep well, Uddhav!)