Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[jayakris]

Meanwhile, it seems we have developed a paper test which is pretty good!

India's new paper Covid-19 test could be a ‘game changer’

Well, I don't know if there is a "game" left, to be "changed", but it is always great to hear of good things that come out of Indian research.

[prasen9]

Until the vaccine is widely available, it can be a game changer for the game that will no doubt still be played. We still have a lot more of living folks even though we lost an awful lot via death.

[jayakris]

So we had +71.9K today, and reported about 1144K tests for a positivity of 6.32%... Not bad at all.

Kerala and Karnataka testsed ata slightly higher rate, which was good to see. Not enough, bit ok. Chhattisgarh still not showing any urgency in testing more. Haryana raised their testing from the usual 22K to around 39K which was nice (but some of these may be tests from earlier that were added late)... Maharashtra case numbers have really dropped drastically, and the test positivity has now fallen from the 25% range to 17%... Only the Satara district made the bad-area list today (see today's summary)...

Like I said in the summary post, Bengaluru (over 5000 cases today) is still growing at a 2.0% rate which is way higher than all other cities in india (and the world)... Mumbai is at 0.8%, Delhi at 0.9%, Pune at 0.7%, Chennai at 0.8%, and Kolkata at 1.2%... Of course, nobody can compete with Kollam (4.9% for +845) and Kochi (3.7%, +837) in Kerala.

But outside of those 20 odd districts in Kerala and Karnataka, we only have about a 0.9% growth nationally everywhere in India, cities and rural areas all combined... It is stunning for me, as I go through the district numbers, to see so many districts with raging issues even recently just disappearing from the bad list so fast these days and showing so few cases, all over India.

[rajitghosh]

Monsoon is over. It is reflecting on the numbers. This coupled to the fact that a lot of people would have got exposed to the virus and developed antibodies. Next risks are the festival season with crowding, the North East Monsoon and the opening up of restaurants, cinemas and trains.

[jayakris]

I think you're right, Rajit. The Monsoon effect was quite significant, and the ending of the rains is probably the biggest reason for the drop in the numbers now (along with there being fewer people, and really fewer super-spreaders left). You had predicted it early that a lot of infections could happen with people crowding in small places during the rainy periods.

Hopefully the festival season won't be too bad. The indoor diwali parties will cause some issues though. Probably not as much as did the Monsoons.

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ICMR Update: 82,271,654 total tests... Tuesday tests: 1,199,857... Pretty good. Lab count: 1889 (it hasn't been growing much at all, lately, but the case counts are dropping, so no problem)

[Omkara]

There is a image circulating on WhatsApp. Scores of people in a showroom buying shoes for Durga Puja. Scary.

[jayakris]

There is a image circulating on WhatsApp. Scores of people in a showroom buying shoes for Durga Puja. Scary.

Haha... But what do you do with shoes during Durga Puja??

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Update: +78.8K today, from around 1190K tests reported by the states, for a positivity around 6.62%. About 8K less than the previous peak a week ago on last Wednesday, despite Kerala going past 10K cases today... Kerala also went up to 75K tests (kept the positivity at 14.4; it is bad, but it didn't get worse, knowing these are probably near-peak numbers in the state). Karnataka went past 100K tests for the first time (and they keep their positivity at around 10.5%; also not worsening). Good. Everywhere else, it is nice drops in numbers. All in all, a non-problematic day, as our 7-day average dropped again by another 1100, and the death total stayed under 1000 again.

[Sin Hombre]

Regeneron (antibody treatment used on Trump) and Eli Lilly both with promising monoclonal antibody cocktail results in the last week. Our understanding of how to treat covid to prevent extremely adverse events continues to improve.

Vaccine phase 3 trials are getting pushed back and we are not likely to see results in October.

Overall, I am still expecting significant relative normalcy by end of March.

[Omkara]

There is a image circulating on WhatsApp. Scores of people in a showroom buying shoes for Durga Puja. Scary.

Haha... But what do you do with shoes during Durga Puja??

Arre Bengali's change their wardrobe during durga Puja. 5 days... 5 new dresses.... 5 new shoes... If only I could add an image to a post

[jayakris]

^^ Ah, I see... Damn. Now we have to worry about Covid transmission via footwear!

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ICMR update: 83,465,975 total tests... Wednesday tests: 1,194,321 ... We will probably see about that many tests reported tomorrow... Lab count: 1893

[jayakris]

Excellent start for the day today... TN down to 5000, and Kerala down -5200 from 10.6K to 5445... The Kerala drop is rather inexplicable, as they reported 63K tests and a drop in positivity from 14.5 to 8.6% .... How does that happen?? Anyway, good news there.

EDIT: Meanwhile, one month of not raising the testing at all, has brought WB back into the trouble category for the third time. I have been saying that the testing was getting slightly worse and worse every day, and it has gone up to 8.3% positivity today. The case count crossed 3500, and more importantly, they got 63 deaths today in West Bengal. That means trouble is on the way soon. Expect WB to show 4000-5000 cases fairly soon. Once Kerala and Karnataka are done, we will have West Bengal to worry about, if I am to guess. Do something now with AG tests and they can handle the problem early. But they won't, I'm sure.

EDIT2: Only +70.8K today... That is 8K less than yesterday and 11K less than on last Thursday... The tests seem to be similar to yesterday, so the positivity should be good today. Not bad at all. But the death counts are not dropping that drastically, but it lags a few days anyway. Jharkhand's 40 deaths, while their test and case numbers are excellent, is cause for concern (along with WB's stagnant testing numbers)... Maybe Jharkhand isn't testing at some of the right places?....[EDIT: That was a mistake by Covid19india. JH only had 8 deaths, not 40. India only had 967, not 1000]

EDIT3: The states reported about 1196K tests... At +70.8K, the positivity was 5.91% today!!

[Omkara]

WB increase is because people are reckless in the festive season. Going out without precautions. This will continue to inch up. And others will follow soon. In between there might be a dip.

[jayakris]

This NY Times article focuses on the refusal of Indian villagers to believe what the government is saying about the seriousness of Covid-19

‘Rural Surge’ Propels India Toward More Covid-19 Infections Than U.S.

The quarantine fear is also a big drag on things. I think we should drop all these quarantine requirements. Anyway, we cannot enforce much of it. If we say "there is no quarantine; you're on your own; just come and get tested, and watch out for yourself and your family," that may be more effective. I had felt it for at least 2-3 months that there is no point in our quarantining. Of course, we could offer help too and say, "if you want to protect your family and want to come and be in a quarantine center, you're welcome too" -- but otherwise, it is of no use. It is counter-productive in India, and people are hiding things, making the spread worse. I may be wrong, but I have had that feeling for a while.

[jayakris]

WB increase is because people are reckless in the festive season. Going out without precautions. This will continue to inch up. And others will follow soon. In between there might be a dip.

It may be, but I am not seeing that kind of increase in numbers either. It has been just a slow increase of an extra 25 or 50 cases every day for a while. And all along the testing keeps dropping by and 50 or 100 per day too. Down from over 45K several weeks back to 42K. Just not what we want to see. And if things are already going in the wrong direction, something like the festivities and parties could make it really bad soon. Like what happened during Onam in Kerala.

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ICMR Update: 84,634,680 total tests... Thursday tests: 1,168,705... Lab count:1902

[jayakris]

We had +73.3K today... The tests were a bit higher too, at around 1216K reported by the states today. So the positivity was good again, at 6.03% ... Nice to see Karnataka now up to 110K tests a day for 9.9% positivity, and Chhattisgarh at 30K tests for a 9.6%... Kerala went back up again to +9250 after that weird drop to 5400 yesterday. But even Kerala's positivuty has come down from 14.5 earlier this week to 13.5 now. Rajasthan and WB are two places that need to watch it, as both are inching up and getting closer to 9 and 10+ percent positivities. But overall, things are looking good.

The death total was 930 today, which is also going down and down....

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ICMR Update: 85,798,698 total tests... Friday tests: 1,164,018 ... The testing numbers are rather steady these days... Lab count: +11 to 1913