Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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jayakris
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

ICMR Update: 64,392,594 total tests... Sunday tests: 731,534 ... That is really low. I guess we will see some 850K tests reported by the states on Monday. Hopefully the positivity isn't bad. Or is it because we are truly having fewer people getting infected? Will have to wait and see. Lab count: 1774


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Maharashtra had only 15,738 today. But shockingly, it is from 40,017 tests. That is a 39% positivity. Are you kidding me? The state has no shame in even reporting all these numbers. Today's test number is quite probably wrong, but nobody cares to even notice.

This kind of bullshit is why I am reluctant to say that we actually have a drop in daily cases. Maharashtra and Karnataka are just not showing from test positivity that their numbers are anywhere near correct. They could find 35K and 15K each next week if they test more, possibly.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Omkara »

Overall higher number of positive cases today. Maharashtra :puke:


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

40,017 is the lowest test count that Maharashtra has reported in 2 months, since July 21st. They have not been under 45K tests for 5 weeks. :puke: :puke:

But they reported 32,007 recoveries today. WTF? That is an unbelievable number too. I think the state officials have no clue or control on any of these numbers. Their spreadsheets are all messed up too, I'm sure. Pretty much random numbers these days!


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Well... This must be real drop past the peak, as lower testing etc cannot really explain it. We got only +74.5K today, and it is not just less than last Monday's number of 81.9... It is lower than even on the Monday TWO weeks ago, which was a +75K...

I resisted the idea of a drop, and thought it must be because we had fewer tests (and Maharashtra showed only 40K though they showed cases worth about 60K tests and they quite probably made a test report mistake)... But then I added up the state reports, and we showed 996K tests today, our highest Monday total so far. So the positivity fell AGAIN... to 7.48% today.... That is lower than the 8.45 we had last Monday, and the 7.83 we had two Mondays ago --- and Mondays tend to have higher positivity, as a few more serious cases tend to get tested during the weekend. So, despite some possible 20K tests missing from the MAH total, we still got a drop in positivity.

We had 102K discharges too, today. So the active case total dropped drastically by 28.6K today. ..
The seven-day average of daily new cases dipped for one more day from 91.5K to 90.5K...
That is no rise in the average for 5 days, and drops for the last 4 days with increasing rate...
The 3-day average test positivity has continuously dropped from 8.35 to 7.66 over the last 10 days...
The total deaths were 1056 today, well below our peak numbers in the 1200+ range, and the same as on last Monday...

Alrighty, then! ... If it quacks like a drop and walks like a drop, may be it really is a drop? :)

Let us see the next 3-4 days. Not yet time to celebrate or anything. The signs are very hopeful right now.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Atithee »

Are we still tabulating the first or it second wave now? Almost everywhere, except the specially gifted China, the second wave seems to be putting brakes on normalcy that was slowly being restored. Perhaps India will have only one giant wave.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Atithee wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:21 pmAre we still tabulating the first or it second wave now? Almost everywhere, except the specially gifted China, the second wave seems to be putting brakes on normalcy that was slowly being restored. Perhaps India will have only one giant wave.
It is the first wave. But there may not be a huge second wave or anything, because it is all merged together in to a giant wave, like you say, with big time gaps between different states' peaks.

I don't expect our daily additions to drop a whole lot or anything. We should be having peak days at least in the +90K to +75K range for the coming few weeks from now, even if we are past the first peak and are dropping. I don't know if we will have a serious second wave, because the first wave itself may not go down a whole lot. It may then go down a bit, and we may then go back from +75K or +85K weekly peaks to +110K or whatever and then drop again, forming a second wave.

That is, maybe we should expect new cases per week in the 550K to 700K range for the next 2-3 months in any case? If we are lucky, it goes down to 400K per week by end of the year. If we are unlucky, it goes to 900K. That means the peak day addition every week keeps dropping by 4K per week and we are at +45K peaks by the end of the year, or the other extreme where it goes up by 4K from +95K now to +145K by end of the year. That is sort of what I am thinking now as the extremes. Reality may fall somewhere in the middle. It drops for a bit, then goes up a bit, and then maybe drops again, but basically we keep adding between 550K and 750K cases on most weeks for a while.

Could we just go down in case numbers to really low numbers in the next 8 or 10 weeks? Like only +10K weekly peak days and only 50K-60K total per week?... Since it happened in Pakistan, it can happen anywhere, right? .... I suppose it is possible, though I just don't see it because it has not happened in any large state in India -- except in Bihar, but they test at world's best rate right now at less than 1 percent positivity and 170K per day...

Or maybe the Indian states will just decide that there is no reason why they cannot do what Bihar does. Actually, what takes them this long to realize that? I have no idea. But then, Bihar and Jharkhand may get second waves soon, if they don't raise their RT-PCR testing of false-negative AG tests. So, again, who knows... I see so many details that can go wrong or go right, that I can't predict anything :)

In any event, except for oxygen cylinder supply issues in some places, we don't seem to have much of a problem even at the peak, so we managed in the end. It can't get much worse and can only get better from now on.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by PKBasu »

Undoubtedly a positive development. The lowest number of new cases in September was on 21st September. The 7-day moving average is also at a 10-day low -- i.e., the curve of new cases is finally flattening. Of course, this needs to be sustained for a few more days before we can feel fully relieved.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

ICMR Update: 65,325,779 Total... Monday tests: 933,185... That is really low for a Monday. Lab count: 1777 (not much increase lately)

I think ICMR is just not getting some 200K tests per day entered into their portal these days. The states (at least some) seem to know of the tests in their local reporting systems though. Probably these are negatives from AG tests, because the testing personnel don't want to waste time if the test is negative by entering things into the ICMR portal, and the people themselves may tell them to forget it, to avoid hassles of doing RT-PCRs later. Now that ICMR has said more clearly (a few days ago) that all AG negatives should be tested with ART-PCR, there is more incentive for district and clinic-level testing personnel not to report. Just my guess.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by depleter »

Feluda, the indigenously made low cost 30 minute covid test has been approved by the DCGI finally (It was made way back in may). It's accuracy is said to be as high as RT-PCR. And Tata Sons will be producing it now. But I can't find any info on how much will be the production capabilities.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jaydeep »

As per the report, it will take 3-4 weeks for production.
Tata Sons said it would fast-track manufacturing to brings the Feluda kit to the market in three or four weeks.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

depleter wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:35 pmFeluda, the indigenously made low cost 30 minute covid test has been approved by the DCGI finally (It was made way back in may). It's accuracy is said to be as high as RT-PCR. And Tata Sons will be producing it now. But I can't find any info on how much will be the production capabilities.
Nice. I hadn't followed up on that. If it's as good as RT-PCR, that may be the game-changer we need. We have a serious drop in cases going on right now, but I'm not sure if we will be able to drop cases down to more than half or one-third of the numbers now with just AG tests.

Anyway, it is good news all around. Tests are nicely up today, and it looks like we may not even hit +84K. That is way below the 91K last Tuesday and 89.9K on the Tuesday 2 weeks ago!

(And Maharashtra seems to have reported the missing 20K tests from yesterday in today's test count of 105K, just as expected. So there was 39% positivity yesterday and 17% today... Basically a 23.5% positivity over two days with +34K total cases and 145K tests; so positivity has not gone up as the case numbers dropped in Maharashtra for 2 days)


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

So.... it was only +83.4K today, and we got another nice drop in the 7-day average... Shall we declare that we are past a peak, or do you all want to still wait? :) ... It doesn't look like we will go back (not too soon at least) to the 97.9K peak we got last Wednesday Sep 17th will officially be our first real peak (a bit above the previous week's peak of 97.7K). The peak of the 7-day average curve (93.3K) was also on the same day, Sep 17th.

The states reported about 1236K tests, and we got a 6.75% positivity. I think it was 3.5 months ago on June 5th that our positivity has been this low!

Who knew that it would take almost 6 months since the announcement of a lockdown, 5.2 million cases and about 70 million tests, for us to reach the peak?


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by PKBasu »

Yes, there's no doubt that the new-case curve is finally flattening -- in fact, turning down noticeably (especially the 7-day moving average). The sobering fact is that it has peaked at a daily average rate that is higher than China's total case count. But things should get better from here in India, albeit after a very serious national pandemic.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

I will wait till Friday.