Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[suresh]

Maharashtra, AP and Karnataka have high positivity rates. They (at least AP and Karnataka) need to act fast to bring that under control.

[Atithee]

What motivation/incentive or a good reason does any state have to report bad numbers? Inevitably, states will be drawn into BJP versus non-BJP controlled state politics and it will just paint states in a bad corner. There is nothing to be gained really from reporting high numbers so why will they not fudge it?

[jayakris]

There is nothing to be gained really from reporting high numbers so why will they not fudge it?

Our officials are not that good to fudge it much. On this, I think it is tough to do, other than to delay the counting (which TN and Gujarat have almost surely done). ICMR does have the case and test numbers at their portal, so that really cannot be touched. Big mismatches will be found easily and questioned. The only fudging possible is on deaths and on not reporting the negatives on AG tests (as they are not done in ICMR-approved labs), but not reporting AG negatives gives worse numbers, so they don't try that. I think Maharashtra is missing some AG negatives in their counts, and they don't even know how many AG tests are done by some districts, I think.

[Atithee]

You give far too much credit to our systems, Jay. ICMR has good data just because they approve labs or require such labs to report data? That’s it?

And, I still don’t know why a state should report high numbers. It makes them look bad and creates more panic in the public. Maybe latter is a good scare tactic. But, absolutely no one reports bad numbers in India of any kind just because some regulation requires it to be done. Mismatches are open secrets but it’s the way of life.

I think you are reading too much into the numbers. It’s like that bouncy ball pit with Sheldon from BBT popping up saying Bazinga every time. You think you understand what’s going on and the data monster keeps popping up somewhere else. Take a break, Dr. Jay.

[jayakris]

You give far too much credit to our systems, Jay. ICMR has good data just because they approve labs or require such labs to report data? That’s it?

Haha, yeah. Actually what happens is that a lot of people have access to that portal, and every patient needs to get an ID from there (if I am not mistaken), and the hospitals cannot do much about it. Trying to fudge stuff there will get caught. The states have no way but to use the portal - and no state got a chance to set things up and do it all outside of ICMR because ICMR was overseeing the test kit supply. It's out of no choice that the states just started using that portal. Think through the process, and you will see how it ended up working in a rather truthful way.

Remember the time when states actually tried not to report some cases with the excuse that they had no info on the person and that it must be somebody from another state and all that? ICMR started listing them as "unassigned" and went after the states because they knew which state did the test. Finally the states had to take ownership when they had to list the person as "recovered", basically.

The states could have orchestrated things by telling the labs not to report and all that. But they never got time for that ...

I think you are reading too much into the numbers. It’s like that bouncy ball pit with Sheldon from BBT popping up saying Bazinga every time. You think you understand what’s going on and the data monster keeps popping up somewhere else. Take a break, Dr. Jay.

Nah, the numbers are what they are. There is always 5 orr 10% errors and all that. But that is all uniform pretty much across the country. Heck, the tests themselves have that kind of errors, and we can't assume that all these lab technicians are doing their job right! They clearly aren't. But they even out, and then we have to go by the numbers.

But you are right. The data monster keeps popping up somewhere else, when we think we know what's going on. Actually we do know what's going on. Just that we are always HOPING that things wouldn't happen and that the numbers have to drop magically sometime. But hopes aren't answered. What we know can happen, does happen, instead

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And we crossed 90K just like that today. +90,600... EDIT: But we did more tests too. 1068K tests reported by the states, so our positivity was 7.76 today... Again, it is inching up. Quite a few states (Kerala, Karnataka, Punjab, Haryana, Odisha) need to raise their testing like they can. Of course Maharashtra needs to, but that we keep saying and it is of no use saying it.

[jayakris]

Take a look at today's summary analysis. There is actually a single contiguous strip of nearly 60 districts with "bad growth" that goes from Kozhikode in Kerala through Karnataka, Maharashtra and Chattisgarh to almost the eastern coast near Puri, Odisha. Some 15K cases came from those districts. 4.8% growth that is almost 2.5 times the growth rate elsewhere.

[suresh]

What motivation/incentive or a good reason does any state have to report bad numbers? Inevitably, states will be drawn into BJP versus non-BJP controlled state politics and it will just paint states in a bad corner. There is nothing to be gained really from reporting high numbers so why will they not fudge it?

Strangely, there hasn't been much politicking with regard to the pandemic. There was a DMK MLA, a doctor, who went after the state for not releasing data properly but that was really constructive criticism which should be welcomed. I wish the opposition in Maharashtra (Congress and BJP) went after the state in this fashion. The death of an actor is taking centre stage there. At some level, we deserve what we are getting.

[Omkara]

The death of an actor is the centre of discussion in one particular news channel which has a buffon as a news anchor. Just for facts he is aligned to the ruling party in the centre. The main aim of people ruling the country is to gain mileage, from everything. The channels helps them in doing so. Distract people from facts. But there are the believers. I am just relieved that I survived.

[jayakris]

ICMR Update: 48,831,145 total tests... Saturday tests: 1,092,654... I just wish the extra tests would be in places where they are badly needed like in KAR, MAH, CHG, etc, and not in Bihar where the testing is ridiculously high already. Lab count: +9 to 1652

[sameerph]

I wish the opposition in Maharashtra (Congress and BJP) went after the state in this fashion. The death of an actor is taking centre stage there. At some level, we deserve what we are getting.

Congress is not in opposition, it is part of ruling alliance. BJP is raising a few voice here and there but not much. People are also now taking this as part of life now and most begining to believe that nothing much can be done by government for covid.

[rajitghosh]

I just drove from Pune to Mumbai and back. Things are almost back at normal. A few common observations for both cities.
There is good traffic on the road. Lot of people crowding at bus stands. Restaurants are allowing take away only but people are crowding and having their food on the bonnets of cars. Shops are doing good business as people are going out to buy stuff that they couldn't for many months. Many people don't use masks. There is nothing called social distancing. In general people are no more concerned about covid. Work from home is happening for offices where virtual working is possible, in other places offices are opening. In Mumbai at least I thought traffic was higher since local trains are shut. So I could see more people going to work on their 2 wheelers. In some ways Mumbai traffic represented Pune traffic.
Yet another case is there in my society. Mildly symptomatic. There is no panic any more.

[suresh]

Individuals may give up but the administration cannot do that. There are still avenues open to pursue. Isn't it a shame that UP and Bihar are able to test higher numbers than Maharashtra? Is it hard to make enforce the requirements of social distancing and the wearing of a mask?

[Atithee]

Suresh, it’s very hard in a store to enforce social distancing. In stores, masks can be enforced but social distancing can only be enforced at checkouts. For example, locally for us, when you’re at a row of freezers, no one will form a social distant line and grab a gallon of milk one by one. Touch points are too many too. It’s just not practical despite ubiquitous signs everywhere.

Perhaps one novel idea is to fix the price at all shops for a while (no sales etc. at least on staples so people don’t have to bargain hunt) and people order online/at store and pickup for free/delivery for an extra surcharge.

[jayakris]

And we have +23,350 in Magarashtra. Just from 91035 tests at 25.6% positivity. No joke. 328 deaths too, as always. Actually Mumbai has 11.8K tests @ 16.0% positivity, so outside Mumbai, the state has 27% positivity. Almost 1 in 3.5 tests are turning positive. Worse than almost any place in the world now.

Basically they test the one who comes infected, and the one who brings the person, in Maharashtra. The rest of the tests are possibly just confirmation tests for negatives on the patients. You need to be tracing hardly nobody if you need to get that kind of positivity.

Modiji should force Uddhav to resign. Or Modiji and Uddhav should both resign. Period. You cannot let this many people die every day in one of our states purely because the state refuses to test anybody.

[jayakris]

Meanwhile there were 154 deaths in Punjab to go with just +1500 cases, as they are not testing all that well. I think they missed a bunch of cases last week and maybe still missing them? 25.2K tests today, so the positivity isn't terrible, but if you are getting this many deaths, something is awfully wrong in where you are testing and whom. [EDIT: That was a Covid19india mistake. 54 deaths and not 154. Phew. Okay, then things are just fine in Punjab. Seeing 154 deaths made all kinds of alarm bells go off! Phew]

And 3000+ cases in Kerala, as the bloviating Pinarayi Vijayan and KK Shailaja have done nothing to increase testing for weeks. Just letting problems fester and now paying for it.

Karnataka isn't raising the tests fast enough. AP should be doing 100K+ tests too. Of course Maharashstra should have been doing 200K tests, like 2 weeks ago. MAH needs a 3-fold raise in testing per day. Fat hope on even 30% raise, and that fat hope has not worked out for 5 months for us.

Himachal Pradesh has suddenly gone up from 50 to 100 cases to 400 cases over 3-4 days.

Every damn state except Bihar, UP and WB needs to add 50% more AG tests next week (and get ready to do 50% more RT-PCR the week after) to solve this problem, because right now we are growing at a scary pace. Will go to 93K or something today and hospital issues are about to kick in at many places.