Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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jayakris
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Sin Hombre wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:46 pm
Jay, your mental model matches what the studies show.
200 deaths in 60k sero-cases in your example is 0.33% ; which is right what I used above.
Does that make sense?
The 95% confidence intervals are fairly accurate imo
^^^ Great. I actually had not fully understood the CFR calculation you had. So, you are actually talking about death per infection (as in sero-surveys) and not the "sufficient level of infection to be tested and counted," which I was recommending. Nice to know that the quick calculations were in the ball park. Actually it gives me some relief, to finally start getting an idea about what the heck is going on!

The scientists are right about infections. But like I said, they should shut the hell up because it is rather irrelevant in the case-count discussion! ... It is relevant though on predicting the peak etc because I think the various areas do need to get up to certain levels of infection. That is not the classic "herd immunity" but just a level of immunity for a slow-down of the growth to the level where the test-trace-contain operations have a chance to start isolating growth areas and dropping the numbers.

That also explains, possibly, why Europe was able to drop it because it pretty much had got everywhere and reached 10-15% infections in a hurry before they even got to doing anything. The thing is that EVERY European country is directly connected internationally (air and train travel) unlike the US and India where the domestic travel needed to take it to various places and cause the growth.' Once they started tracing and containing, it was going to stop in many neighborhoods, which it did.

The reason we are not getting a peak is actually because we prevented the 10-20% infection rate from happening, with an early lockdown. But in places like Ramagunj in Jaipur and the pockets of Indore, Agra, etc, such levels of immunity happened, and then it was easier to get a drop from the testing/tracing process. Dharavi probably has that level of infection too.

So it is a good thing to know that Kolkata showing 15% infection and no calamity has happened.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

This sneaky buster, Mr. Himanta Biswa Sarma would tweet the discharge numbers by evening, "Discharge Alert. Glad to share that 245 more patients have been discharged today in Assam, taking our recovery rate to 71.2%. Kudos to health officials & doctors." ... All nice stuff.

Then at 10 pm the testing numbers - "Today our testing figures reached the impressive 4 lakh mark (as I write we would get to this no). Our efforts to contain #COVID19 will be possible only when we have reached out to the last infected person, and therefore targeted testing is critical. Your cooperation is vital".

Then he will wait, wait, wait... till everybody is asleep and only he is up in Dispur, to quietly tweet the bad news at midnight - "we had XXX cases detected in Assam today". :) [Edit: promptly at 11.55 pm, he tweets a +302]

So we wait for him to give the final tweet, to finalize our total. +18002 so far.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Sin Hombre »

Just to be clear Jay, I do not believe the 15% infection rate for Kolkata (or the similar numbers parroted for other cities).

We likely have reached that number for neighborhoods in our big cities but not the city as a whole.

That would mean a NY like scenario.

In Kolkata's case with a population of 15m, that would have meant 15m * 0.15 * 0.003 = 6750 deaths, which clearly hasn't happened.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Sin Hombre wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:58 pm
In Kolkata's case with a population of 15m, that would have meant 15m * 0.15 * 0.003 = 6750 deaths, which clearly hasn't happened.
Got it. But actually I believe their sampling was in the official Kolkata city proper, of 4.6 million population (or maybe even from a smaller portion of Kolkata), but not from Howrah, Maheshtala, Rajpur, Gopalpur, Dumdum S&N, and all those other areas that constitute the greater metro of 10 to 15M population. They are all outside the district of Kolkata.

My guess is that they focused on the area of a core 1 million population where the disease must have reached, for the samples. That would predict 450 deaths by your calculation. And they have got 370 reported officially. If 450 deaths is what happened, I would want a minimum 450 times say 25 = 11,250 cases. They have precisely half of it identified -- 5750. So, death rate from tested cases so far is 6.5 percent while they should have possibly had something like 13000 cases and say 500 reported deaths. But if Kolkata officials know well where the deaths are happening, they can bring it down over time. Like in GUJ, where daily deaths were around 9 percent of the new cases, but it has now dropped to 3.5 percent.

But by the time this rate of infection is everywhere in Kolkata, we will be looking at about 25K cases (if the cases are coming from areas of 1 million population now, and it spreads to the 5 million population). Preventing it from getting to the remaining areas of 4 million will be the key to keeping the numbers down. We will see how it goes.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

This missed my attention earlier today. Patna had a sudden +109 today. Trouble brewing in Bihar too, finally?
Guwahati had the sudden +176+172 in two days now too...



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by prasen9 »

Sin Hombre wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:00 am
The whole social distancing thing is/was such a wrong message to spread.

Stay away from indoors or places with recirculated air should have been it from the start (and have everyone wear masks if you need to be in such a location).
Except airplanes which purify/filter the air. But, airplanes may still have people sitting too close to each other for long periods of time thereby transmitting a sufficient enough load. But, at least the recirculated air angle is not much relevant for airplanes.

To revisit a discussion from several months ago: so much for the summer theory. Summer certainly can reduce the numbers because people can go outdoors etc. in cold countries. But, in hot countries, people are going indoors. And, hot temperatures by itself does not impact the virus much it seems. So, it will rage in the summer too.

Wrt the antibody tests, etc., actually those who have been infected and have recovered or have been infected in low doses and that acts as a natural vaccine seems to be like a great thing. We should let these people work and be free. I know there is a second chance of infection maybe by a mutated strain of the virus but it seems that these people can neither get the disease again nor pass the disease on - by an large, assuming that they are cured and not ones in whom the virus is gestating in the first two weeks. So, we should figure out who is "sick" now and not care for how many were infected and their bodies overcame things a long time ago. Biology is not my strong suit. I am just using common sense. Someone correct me if I am wrong.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^ I believe this was sort of the thinking in Sweden (though it was twisted as looking for "herd immunity"). The problem was that it was too late for that. The idea should be to let it grow in pockets to a certain level of infections (so as to then contain it more easily in the neighborhoods). But the virus had already done that and was in the process of going around between pockets and clusters. It was already at 10+ percent infections in some of the more troublesome denser neighborhoods, but the ones where it was in the 1 to 5 percent range could still be contained with testing/tracing, but Sweden couldn't.

So what was needed was mobility restrictions, so that containment zones can be determined, and vulnerable populations could be identified for extra care. Most of Europe (unknowingly or due to peer pressure) did the right thing with lockdowns, while Sweden didn't. Now Sweden is struggling in containment, as it is not localized in pockets.

In India, it is still localized in pockets, and so proper containment and trace/test/quarantine operations when it gets out to new areas should work. Due to the significant lags (over 3 months!) that it has taken to get to several cities, we are not going to see a peak like Europe did, where every possible neighborhood of potential trouble pretty much had it raging by late March. But that doesn't mean that we did not have peaks and drops in so many containment areas (some may even be states) already and we may end up stopping it at a much lower fraction of population with infection, than did US and Europe. If we do our part and stay focused on containment activities, that is.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by rajitghosh »

So here's the list of 4000+ cities after the 18000+ jump on a Monday.
Delhi
Mumbai
Chennai
Thane
Pune
Ahmedabad
Hyderabad (climbing fast)
Kolkata
Palghar
Gurgaon
Chengelpet
Aurangabad
Indore
Surat
Nashik
Bangalore

Thiruvallur, Raigarh and Faridabad would make it soon.

5000+ cities are from Kolkata to Aurangabad. Any of these could explode soon.
In the next lot Bangalore is in the middle of an explosion. Surat has its own issues with diamond workers.
Maharashtra needs to get a control on Thane fast.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Sin Hombre »

prasen, there are a couple of strikes against the antibody passport concept (which wa floated extensively earlier on in March and April).

One is that the antibody tests are not very accurate, 70% accuracy can lead to an exponential escalation in cases with people feeling a false sense of security.

Second is that we do not know how long the immunity lasts. All theories are against it lasting permanently and range from a few weeks to a few months.


China with a new swine flu now
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53218704



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

rajitghosh wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:03 am
So here's the list of 4000+ cities after the 18000+ jump on a Monday.
Good list, to keep track of. Some of them are actually urbanized districts and not cities in the true sense. Like Nashik, Chengalpat, Thiruvallur, etc.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Sin Hombre wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:59 am
China with a new swine flu now
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53218704
I think China has been trying all kinds of PR stunts. This may be to show how transparent they are and how they stopped it for the world, later. Every damn news story out of there is planted. Every day they would say that there is a big Covid outbreak starting somewhere in China ("Beijing has a second wave" or "3 million in Wuhan being administered antigen tests to stop a new spread", etc)... Then we will see just 22 cases reported for the whole country after all the talk. They will give small numbers and talk about all kinds of problems, to make the world think that they are so damn friggin efficient in handling all this. This swine flu story might be the same too. Later they will talk about some incredible thing they did to stop it. All part of their misinformation campaign.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Sin Hombre »

jayakris wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:38 am
Sin Hombre wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:59 am
China with a new swine flu now
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53218704
I think China has been trying all kinds of PR stunts. This may be to show how transparent they are and how they stopped it for the world, later. Every damn news story out of there is planted. Every day they would say that there is a big Covid outbreak starting somewhere in China ("Beijing has a second wave" or "3 million in Wuhan being administered antigen tests to stop a new spread", etc)... Then we will see just 22 cases reported for the whole country after all the talk. They will give small numbers and talk about all kinds of problems, to make the world think that they are so damn friggin efficient in handling all this. This swine flu story might be the same too. Later they will talk about some incredible thing they did to stop it. All part of their misinformation campaign.
Those Beijing numbers are so obviously made up.

Even Australia which is an island and is forcing every visitor to quarantine is seeing a small flare up in VIctoria with 75 new cases daily.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^^ Yeah, it is impossible to get only 30 cases a day in China, even if they did 90 million tests like they claim. Hell, they can take all 1.3 billion Chinese and quarantine them in jails, testing everybody once every 2 weeks, and they will still have a minimum 200 cases a day. Absolute lies.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

ICMR testing update: 8,608,654 total... Monday tests: 210,292. Monday is also not a big test day, but I do want to see this number go up to at least 250K to 275K this week in the next 4 days. Only two labs added today - to 1049 labs total. Not enough. Need +25 tomorrow!

Tuesday starts with a -281 (to 7004) in the unassigned cases' column. I hope it won't rise above +19.5K.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

@jay @sin hombre Please get in touch with the scientists involved with indscicov.in -- I know some of them and they are very good and open to suggestion and criticisms. Who knows, they may implement some of your ideas. Their data and code is all open source and nothing is hidden. However, they do not have access to serological studies carried out by ICMR.