Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[jayakris]

+9638 to 216,824 is the total .. That is a 4.65% growth rate with a doubling period of 15.4 days.
Deaths: +259 to 6,088... The overall death rate is at 2.81%
Recoveries: +3786 to 104,071... Overall recovery rate: 48%

Today's Bad Areas:
+1513 (6.8%) to 23645 in Delhi, DEL
+1131 (6.0%) to 20031 (+1012+61+58 to 17587+1363+1081) in Chennai/Chengalpattu/Tiruvallur, TN
+709 (11.1%) to 7123 in the mysterious state of the "Unassigned"
+271 (17.2%) to 1848 in the state of ASM (travelers at the western entry district Dhubri, mostly)
+267 (7.0%) to 4063 in the state of KAR (Kalaburagi and Udupi mainly)
+237 (5.1%) to 4859 (+99+58+42+38 to 2394+1214+869+382) in Kolkata/Howrah/N.Parganas/Hooghly, WB
+230 (5.8%) to 4326 in the state of BIH
+218 (7.6%) to 3095 (98+11+24+61+24 to 1032+91+165+1653+154) Solap./Osman./Ahmed./Aurang./Jalna (interior strip), MAH
+201 to 1862 (+132+65 to 1195+487) in Gurugram/Faridabad, HAR

No other contiguous areas had a growth rate above our national average today (4.65%) and 200+ new cases. The bad areas together had +4777 cases to take their total to 70,852 cases at a bad area growth rate of 7.22%... The rest of the country had +4861 cases to take their total to 145,972 at a good area growth rate of 3.44% ... The good areas are becoming a larger part of the total count though. It is 67.3% now.

[jayakris]

Delhi had not given a testing number in their news release for Wednesday with the 1513 new cases. I found in this article that it is 230,145 total so far, so it was 6538 tests for those positives. Very high positivity at 23%, like they've been having for a while. Just pray that they have the containment zones properly set and monitored and that the virus isn't leaking out too fast outside. Basically they are testing like Mumbai has been for a while. Maybe a little better than Mumbai but not much.

Chennai is much better at 9% positivity, though worse by their own standards in TN where they kept 2 to 4 percent positivity for a long time.

[rajitghosh]

6000 deaths crossed. Hopefully won't spike up now. Growth in deaths over the last few days in increasing.

[jayakris]

^^^ Yes, but we are not showing any tendency to really spike up on anything. Locally, I think things are okay... Let us see if Delhi shows anything unusual. Chennai definitely is not going to spike. 9% positivity is good enough to keep it under control at this point. Mumbai may be at 25% but hasn't spiked for quite a while. Need to watch Delhi.

The only real worrisome problem is Telangana. It seems the central Government has been going after the state since early May on testing, and they are still not doing it. Under 500 tests a day, so I don't believe the bullshit that it is because they trace so damn well (that is what Telangana says!). Everywhere else, we have things under control. Good to know that ICMR and the Union health ministry are really aware of the Telangana screw-up.
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ICMR update: 4,242,718 Total tests. Wednesday tests: 139,485 ... It went up another 2K... So, somebody or other is testing a lot in India! ... Lab count: That went up +22 to 710 yesterday too. We went over 3000 tests per million, to 3077. We were even below Pakistan on that count till a few days ago, but we are well ahead of them now. But most countries are naturally quite ahead of us. The notable countries with bigger populations behind us in tests per million are Japan, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Egypt and Bangladesh.

Hoping for anything under 10K positives on Thursday. Hopefully not much higher than +9500.

+360 in the unassigned territory. So at least it is a good start for Thursday (this was 784 and 709 in the last two days).

[jayakris]

+257 in KAR, +141 AP, +94 in KER, and early numbers of +188 in HAR, +94 BIH, +90 ODI, +68 RAJ, +60 UK, +47 ASM, +53 CHG,
A fairly sedate start for the day so far.

News: In an ANI tweet: "Railways has stationed 10 isolation coaches at Shakurbasti Railway Station to aid the treatment of COVID-19 patients. "160 patients with very mild, mild, or no symptoms of coronavirus can be admitted at the facility,". That is in Haryana, right outside Delhi. Finally those trains are being used under a spike condition somewhere! There are 100s of more trains available.

Update: +1384 in TN. It is a rise, but it is from 16,447 tests. They seriously raised it again! Go TN! Positivity down from 9.8% to 8.3%.
Update: +111 in ASM to 158 so far. Not done. That health minister will keep tweeting (and they want him tested, as a doc he met is positive!)
Update: +39 in PUN
Update: +368 in WB
Update: +2933 in MAH (+1439 in Mumbai). So still riding the peak or rising a bit.... +123 deaths is just too many (by at least 20-30)
News: MAH tests - total 510,176, so there were only about 13K tests yesterday, with 22.7% positivity. This aint working, buffoons!
Update: +492 in GUJ

+7336 with J&K, DEL, MP, UP, TEL and night extras to come. Will we stay under 10K today?

[rajitghosh]

UP has already declared 367

[jayakris]

UP has already declared 367

I think that is not the final official one. The minister usually gives out a number at around 6 pm which I think is an evening-to-evening number. It is usually in that range in the end though. Will wait to see the one page item that comes out before 10 pm or so. [EDIT: I think this 367 is the official final count]

Update: +285 in J&K (man, they are testing like crazy, and finding a lot from travelers)
Update: +174 in MP

+7950 with TEL, DEL, JH, +RAJ, +BIH and Northeast night updates.

[jayakris]

UP has already declared 367

It is amazing to see how UP has handled this. The 367 are spread out in 58 of the 75 districts in UP. Not a single district has more than 30 cases and so many of them have 1 case and 2 cases. There are panchayat level quarantining all over the state. They've been doing 10K tests state-wide and findin 200 to 400 cases a day. Lots of pool testing too. Just the way to do it. Have to give kudos to Yogi on this.

Update: +137 in RAJ at night, for +205 in the day.
Update: +40 in Goa. Maharashtra cases just keep coming in. They have 166 total now in Goa.
Update: +127 in TEL, +14 in HP, +176 in TPR

+8301 with DEL and JH to come, with possible +ASM, +BIH etc.

[jayakris]

My God, what do we do with this Godforsaken state? -- Telangana has stopped screening domestic passengers (The Hindu)

I am speechless. Are they on a death wish like Sweden was? Do nothing and just sit there watching? Strangely, people aren't finding too many people coming from Telengana being infected in other states either. Have they been just totally lucky in Hyderbad? .... Nothing fits the picture here!

Waiting for Delhi. Remember that they used to give late night numbers once? They then started reporting it the next day, skipping a day, and offering to do it by noon the next day. They did that for maybe 4 or 5 days... Then they started getting more and more late, and now they are once again the last ones to report (to report results they got by last night, that is!). How inefficient is Kejriwal's operation there? All talk and no walk from that useless man, a disgrace for IITans everywhere (in my opinion, that I've had for a long time).

Update: +32 in BIH (night update) to +126 in the day
Update: +1359 in Delhi (+35 deaths)
Update: + 85 in ASM for +243 in the day ... So, here comes the sleepless ASM health minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma at 10:45 pm.

+9777. I think that is nearly final (except for maybe a +100 stragglers)...
Oh, forgot. CHG with extras.... and JH to come... and that is +63

+9927... and that is pretty much final. I hope

[jayakris]

[EDITED later: With updated numbers from Assam and corrections at Covid19india.Org. That Assam health minister Himanta Biswa Sarma tweeted out more numbers at 11.15 pm. Can we get this guy to go to sleep early? Quarantine him, please.]

+9838 to 226,713 at the end of the day, at a daily growth rate of 4.54% and doubling period of 15.7 days.
Deaths: +274 to 6363, so the overall death rate is 2.81%
Recoveries: +4386 to 108,450, so the overall recovery rate is 47.8%

Today's Bad Areas:
+1359 (5.7%) to 25004 in Delhi, DEL
+1280 (6.8%) to 20230 (+1106+174 to 18693+1537) in Chennai/Chengalpattu, TN
+668 (5.2%) to 13569 (+555+62+71 to 11420+1297+852) Thane/Nashik/Jalgaon, MAH
+360 (5.1%) to 7483 in the mysterious state of the "Unassigned"
+285 (15.6%) to 2116 in the state of ASM
+285 (10%) to 3142 in the UT of J&K
+257 (6.3%) to 4320 in the state of KAR
+250 (14.9%) to 1932 in (+215+35 to 1410+522) in Gurugram/Faridabad, HAR
+224 (7.7%) to 3124 in areas outside Kolkata/Howrah, WB
+176 (37.3%) to 647 in the state of TRP

No other contiguous areas had a growth rate above our national average today (4.54%) and 175+ new cases. The bad areas together had +5144 cases to take their total to 81,567 cases at a bad area growth rate of 6.73%... The rest of the country had +4694 cases to take their total to 145,146 at a good area growth rate of 3.34% ... Bad areas expanded a little today, relatively-speaking.

[iShUuU]

I dont know for how much useless Kejriwal is. But he is doing much better than Gujarat government where there are so many deaths . My bother is travelling today, boarding from LTT Mumbai station and he was surprised to see the way AAP workers are helping travelers in Mumbai station( they gave him ORS pack, biscuits , mineral waters bottles..)

[sameerph]

Iran seems to be the first one to have a real second waive now. Their daily cases today were 3570, their highest ever. An Iranian user on another forum remarked that social distancing has gone for a toss there and everyone is behaving as if this is over. But, he says that is because deaths are still lower than first wave but it will all change if this continues for a week more.

[jayakris]

I dont know for how much useless Kejriwal is. But he is doing much better than Gujarat government where there are so many deaths . My bother is travelling today, boarding from LTT Mumbai station and he was surprised to see the way AAP workers are helping travelers in Mumbai station( they gave him ORS pack, biscuits , mineral waters bottles..)

Gujarat is just a lost cause on deaths. They just don't seem to have any idea on what to do. I had given up on them long ago.

Yes, Kejriwal is doing fine on the death matter. But tracing, containment and testing seems to be a real problem. If they don't improve on that, everything they do to handle the hospital issues will be erased in 2 or 3 weeks when cases double. Delhi better start showing a slowdown soon. If not death numbers will go up and they won't be able to do much.

By the way, it seems a lot of states are doing this food/water packs at the stations. Lot of good things happen in India, though we only focus on the negatives

[jayakris]

Can you believe the numbers from Mexico today? +3,912 cases and +1,092 deaths.... In one day! ... 101K total cases, and around 12K deaths, and their death numbers keep on going up. That is in the hot tropical weather of Mexico. They have been testing at 33% positivity, if the numbers at worldometers are correct. Their death-rate may go up to 15% like in the worst screw-up country out there, France. How can you turn into France, Mexico? This late?

And Pakistan is showing some really bad spikes for 3 days now. They had averaged just about 1500-2000 cases a day just about a week ago. They have just had +3938, +4065, and 4801 today. They've also gone past China to 85K cases.

S. Africa has also had a sudden spike. So difficult to control this virus.

[Sin Hombre]

Case counts are completely meaningless for some of these countries.

Realistically Mexico has at least daily 20k new symptomatic and infectious cases at this point and this is not counting the asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic ones.

Spain is at the stage where they are now lying about the numbers claiming no deaths in the last 2 days. Fortunately (or not), the US despite all its faults is still reporting numbers as it sees it in most states, and we are getting a very accurate picture on both death rates and R0.

Hot weather is not good.

Hot weather means people stay indoors and run their A/Cs --> recipe for transmission.

Monsoons will likely be very bad for the same reason, we really need to get past the peak in the next 2 weeks and bring R0 below 1 otherwise we are in deep trouble in India.