Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

[suresh]

As of today, we see no flattening of the curve. Take a guess and if you have some logic in making your choice, leave a note explaining it. I am choosing 800K (3 doubling cycles).

[rajitghosh]

The gorilla in the room is the monsoon. It is round the corner. It typically means lower immunity, poor hygiene, lesser contact tracing, no social distancing, gathering of large number of people under roofs, touching affected surfaces and so on. We should peak by September when the monsoon ends.

[prasen9]

I am guessing that except from Suresh nobody is going to risk a number

[suresh]

I am guessing that except from Suresh nobody is going to risk a number

Wimps. And I thought that I was a pessimist.

[prasen9]

Wimps.

Agreed!

[shibi]

Way over a million- actually tens of millions. Even with a continued lockdown into June, we could reach almost a million by July & continue to add numbers. Lockdowns only help delay reaching the peak.

[sameerph]

Btw, what is meant by reaching a peak. Is it the number at which daily numbers will start coming down ?

[shibi]

I would say when the number of active cases start reducing consistently.

[jayakris]

I have no idea... I just picked a 400K for no reasons. I am not seeing any discernible pattern in the data to say that a peak will (or even can) happen at any time. But then again, for some reason that I cannot clearly figure out, many larger countries countries (I don't mean AUS, KOR, HKG, Taiwan, etc) have reached some peak after a while. But none of the very large populations have (I don't know what exactly happened in China). So I will randomly pick 400K now. The peak may be in 30 days. I will be totally not surprised if it doesn't peak even after one million cases in 3 months.

[Sin Hombre]

I see us averaging about 5k/day for the next 1 year so close to 2m by the end (official number, real number will obviously be higher).

We won't see crazy growths though and will continuously have parts of the country in limited lockdown for the next 12 months.

[jayakris]

I see us averaging about 5k/day for the next 1 year so close to 2m by the end (official number, real number will obviously be higher). We won't see crazy growths though and will continuously have parts of the country in limited lockdown for the next 12 months.

So you believe there will be a peak sometime at a figure more (or much more) than 5K, before we drop to it, right? We will be up around at least 7 or 8K per day fairly soon.

I also think this will happen. I don't know if it will be 5K/par day or 10K/day in that stable state... It could be 1000 per day too. But long before that we will stop talking about Covid-19, and people will be on their own to go to hospitals and get tested and all that. It will be another flu, but a nasty kind that one needs to be careful about. A lot of careless people (and some unfortunate people) could die too.

If, after things stabilize, if Korea is getting 100 cases a day during 2021, then India, at that kind of a stable state will have 27 times that on just on population alone, which is 2700. Probably higher at 5K because people are not as disciplined and educated as Koreans. US may have 600 a day.

But what is the peak problems we will have, before reaching that equilibrium? Just can't say.

[sameerph]

I would say when the number of active cases start reducing consistently.

Yes, I think that would be the right indication of reaching the peak. Looking at countries in top 10, all of those in Europe- Spain, Italy, Germany,France and Turkey are all now showing clear downward trend in active cases. No data of recovered cases is available for UK, so not sure of it is on downward curve too.

USA,Russia and Brazil still on upward curve for active cases. Iran is one worrying stats where after coming down consistently, the active cases are again going up. Looks like post lockdown effect is clearly showing there. Will it show up in European countries too later ?

Looking at those nations with downward curve, Spain and Italy have started going down when they passed 2 lakh plus active cases, Turkey, Germany and France at a little lower than that. Population of those nations are only between 6 crores to 8 crores.( Spain even lesser). If we purely go by that statastical co-relation, India will reach about 40 lakh cases before starting to come down. But, I hope with our heat and some immunity with BCG/Malaria etc. the number will be much lower. Hopefully, we will reach that level at a litter over 10 lakh cases. That will be somewhere in July mostly. What happens in monsoon is another unknown factor.

[suresh]

Sameer, I am worried about Maharashtra. Monsoon is two weeks away and this is the last chance for Ms. Bhide to get things under control.

[sameerph]

Agreed, I am too worried particularly about Mumbai. Btw, Ashwini Bhide is only 1 of 7 IAS officers in charge of respective zones in Mumbai. So, She is not responsible for whole of Mumbai, let alone Maharshtra. We should probably also tweet to new BMC comissioner in charge, Chahal who is in charge of whole of Mumbai.

[suresh]

Agreed, I am too worried particularly about Mumbai. Btw, Ashwini Bhide is only 1 of 7 IAS officers in charge of respective zones in Mumbai. So, She is not responsible for whole of Mumbai, let alone Maharshtra. We should probably also tweet to new BMC comissioner in charge, Chahal who is in charge of whole of Mumbai.

What is Chahal's twitter handle?