Atithee wrote:Sameer, yes I agree but I think only top 2-3 junior rankings have much significance in extrapolating it to future senior success. That's why my only nit with your argument(s) in this thread is that you only consider top 2 juniors rather than at least 10. Also, the trend seems to have been bending since 2006 really even for the #2 player but it may be because they take a long time to peak so time will tell.
I'll go on a limb and predict that if you expand this correlation to #10, your theory will breakdown. If I have the time, I'll do this on my own.
You are right about players peaking later. If you see those from 2004 to 2006, Monfils , Young , Cilic & De Bakker have all started moving up now as are 2007 top 2 ( they were much below 200) when I posted this about couple of years ago. 2008 no. 1 Yang Tsung Hua is at his career high now. Hoepfully no.2 Yuki Bhambri will move into that direction soon.
Regarding your point about doing this analysis for top 10 , I have done it for one year & I have chosen 2003 ( as players would have reached maturity by now & will be aged 25-26.)
So, these are ATP career high ranking for 2003 year end top 10 juniors -
So, 5 out of 10 have hit top 100 , 3 others have managed to get into top 200 while 2 have only reached top 300. So, results are bit mixed. It may be worthwhile to do this for couple more years to get clearer data.1. Marcos BAGHDATIS 8
2. Jo-Wilfried TSONGA 8
3. Florin MERGEA (ROU) 243
4. Daniel GIMENO-TRAVER 52
5. Sebastian RIESCHICK 199
6. Andy MURRAY 2
7. Brian BAKER 172
8. Leonardo KIRCHE 262
9. Alex KUZNETSOV 158
10. Frederico GIL 62
Will try later as it is not too too difficult. You get the list of top 10 juniors for any of the years on the ITF site -
ITF juniors top 10
Then, you can click on their profile & display thier mens circuit record.
It will be also worthwhile checking the other way around as Prashant suggested of ATP top 100 players & their best junior ranking. But, that is much more difficult to do.