India in Australia, 2020-21

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prasen9
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Re: India in Australia, 2020-21

Post by prasen9 »

Yes, but I was not going for the close losses or heroic performances followed by losses still. I was going for the memorable draws. Memorable to me. And, by no means was mine an exhaustive list.

Another slightly off topic. We have already used 17 players in 3 tests. In previous years, we would only take 16 players on tour. In COVID days, we should let teams take 22 players or something like that. And, ideally, not play four test series abroad.

Coming back to the Pant debate, here are the numbers we were talking about. Monga says this (cite: CricInfo):
Since May 2018, he has a decent catching efficiency of 91.3% against pace and 86.4% against spin. As a perspective, Pant's catching efficiency off spin is 55%.
It is not that everyone is bad against spin. Pant is the worst among contemporary test keepers against spin.

As I have always said, I would still pick him in the XI on balance and weigh Saha vs another batsman to decide whether to get Pant to keep or not and how much Ashwin, etc. will be bowling based on the pitch. But, just because I am pro playing Pant does not mean that I have to ignore his serious deficiency keeping against spin and flaws in keeping in general.

Wrt pace bowling, the difference perhaps does not matter as much.
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Re: India in Australia, 2020-21

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A difference of 5.3% would mean about 2 runs per catch that comes the keeper's way. Australia averages about 38 runs/wicket in the last two years at home. You can reduce that a bit accounting for our bowling lineup and the pitch but that would change things just a small amount. There were 68 wicket-keeping catches taken in Australia in the last 40 innings played there. So, that is about 1.7 catches/innings. So, per innings, that costs us about 3.5 runs. Pant would have to score 3.5 runs more than Saha in test matches per innings in Australia (modulo a lot of approximations and assumptions I have made) to cover for his keeping to pace-bowling over and above whatever byes he gives extra. I think more or less he does that. I have to check the average byes given, etc. though.

But, when this goes to spinners, I do not know what Saha's spin-bowling-catching efficiency is but I doubt it would be less than the 86% that Paine has. There the difference would be more. I can do the math to see what we are giving up wrt Pant but Pant gives up about 13 runs to Paine per catch (of which 2 runs have been already accounted for above, so a net of 11 runs). If I were to guess, if Saha is making 90% of the catches, it would be about half a run per chance more than Paine's; so 11.5 runs say per chance net Pant gives up vs Saha per spinned catch more than an overall catch. I am too lazy to find out how many catches have gone to the keeper off a spinner. Will do that some other day to figure out the negative impact of Pant's keeping to spinners.

We should add these fielding losses to the difference between say Saha and Prithvi to decide whom we should play in the XI. Pant is a certainty if he is fit but I may have him play as a specialist bat if we think he brings in more value than Prithvi. Is the added value of Prithvi over Saha accounting for the runs we are giving up wrt bowling? An attacking bat may be useful in a low-scoring match if he gets lucky though. I do not know what the answer should be.

Oh, and if Vihari cannot go, then all of Prithvi, Rohit, Pujara, Gill, Mayank, etc. should practice bowling the next three days to be the emergency bowler. The BCCI had Prithvi spinning a leg spin like Warne. But, of course, line and length and control and discipline are paramount in a backup bowler. I am not a fan of playing Thakur for Jadeja. Or Nata for Jadeja which would really decimate our tail.


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Re: India in Australia, 2020-21

Post by Kumar »

Yes,I was primarily looking for memorable test matches that stays in your mind very fresh! Tied test and Kolkata test really came to mind very easily for me! Tied test, which was meandering towards a boring draw suddenly made exciting by a sporting declaration and India going for it, still can’t believe we gave that many wickets to dude that bowls with a cap (Greg Mathews)!

I remember that Gavaskar match in Bangalore! Wasn’t it Gavaskar’s farewell match? What an innings?


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Re: India in Australia, 2020-21

Post by Kumar »

I think at this time, Pant walks in as specialist bat!

https://wisden.com/series-stories/india ... m-argument
With Saha out, Rishabh Pant was thrown into the deep end, with three away tours in 12 months. The 22-year-old gave teasers of his batting potential, scoring enterprising centuries in Australia and England, but his raw wicketkeeping put him under the scanner. Pant spilled 10 catches in 11 Tests, before Saha returned.
As per that article, it says his dismissal rate to spinners is 98.5! Not sure if that is same as catch efficiency!

Also, considering the short ball barrage we are facing, Saha is not a bad choice! This old article talks about his ability to evade bouncers
Saha has just played 5 test matches in SENA! So may be it is small sample size

https://www.cricketcountry.com/articles ... lls-482058


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Re: India in Australia, 2020-21

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BTW, now it is confirmed that Vihari has a grade 2 tear and he is indeed out of the next test. So, we have two spots to take. I would say that we put the two bats in: Mayank and Prithvi and make Prithvi practice bowling the next 2-3 days. Or we get Saha in and play Pant and Mayank. But, then who is the emergency bowler? Maybe make Rohit, Pujara bowl. Can Mayank turn his arm over and do line and length practice?

Thanks Kumar. The 98.3% is overall catch efficiency. That is a combination of the spin and the pace efficiency. If that is the case, then his catching efficiency against spinners must also be very high. Difficult to say what it is without knowing the number of chances that has come his way off spinners vs. pacers.

The other way to look at it is 10 catches in 11 tests is about 350 runs in 11 tests, which is about say 15 runs/innings. So, if we play four pacers in Brisbane, I would have Pant keep. If we have a spinner who we expect to bowl significantly, then we have to calculate the value add he brings in with his keeping vs Prithvi's bat.

So with Vihari and Jadeja out, we need to figure out the other two injuries: Ashwin and Bumrah. And maybe a third injury to Mayank. If you have seen both drop off in their performance, it may be because of their injuries.

India sweat Ashwin, Bumrah for Brisbane

There are some stories saying Bumrah is out too. Bumrah out But one story says that Bumrah will play even if 50% fit. Bumrah in Brisbane

Now, Thakur comes in, obviously if indeed Bumrah cannot go.

And, Mayank is also in some sort of training injury. Mayank in doubt
Whatever, I give up.
Last edited by prasen9 on Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:37 am, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: India in Australia, 2020-21

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With Bumrah also out now the bowling attack would be Siraj, Saini, Shardul and Ashwin provided he is fit. I believe Mayank can bowl a bit so he gets in as the 5th bowler in place of Vihari. It may be a good idea to play Mayank at 6 and let him avoid the new ball. I doubt India will enough substitute fielders if someone gets injured. Can't imagine Shastri fielding.


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Re: India in Australia, 2020-21

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Mayank is doubtful too. It is a stupid idea to play four test matches in these COVID days. Sri Lanka faced something similar. So, it seems like:

Prithvi, Gill, Pujara, Rahane, Rohit, Pant, Saha, Ashwin, Shardul, Saini, Shiraj

With Kuldeep and Natarajan as the substitute fielders. And, if Ashwin cannot go, then Kuldeep comes in. Yes, Bharat Arun and Shastri are the backups now!

Pujara has some finger injury but they will possibly tape it up and push him in. And, here's hoping that Pant's elbow does not swell up and get worse.
Last edited by prasen9 on Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:55 am, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: India in Australia, 2020-21

Post by Sin Hombre »

If Bumrah is injured, play as many batsmen as we can and hope we win the toss and between our two innings and Australia's one, we can play out 3 days. The current expectation is scattered thunderstorms on all days between 2 and 5.


@prasen thanks for the stats. As we have been saying, there is no reason to play Saha on pitches which are pacer-friendly in SENA as Pant is competent against the quicks.

I would play Saha in the home tests against England though.


For Gabba, Shardul or Natarajan? I would play the latter given the former is a known scattergun.


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Re: India in Australia, 2020-21

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We also have Karthik Tyagi. So, with 3 extra players, assuming Ashwin and Pujara will be ready, substitute fielding will not be a problem. Yes, but, Thakur will give us more with the bat. 10-15 runs x 2 may be significant. Natarajan is a total hole in the bat batsman.

Despite a lot of churn, our young core is reasonably intact: Prithvi, Gill, Pant, Kuldeep, Shiraj. The oldies are also more or less there: Saha, Ashwin, Rohit, Rahane, Pujara. So, it seems that the injuries have happened to the middle-aged people mostly! Go figure.

Vihari and Jadeja may not recover by the time the England tests start. Manish Pandey is also injured and out. Shreyas Iyer is also out due to a shoulder injury in Australia. I do not know who will recover in time. We will get Kohli back. Maybe Karun Nair will get a call back. Or else, who is the next batsman in line? Or are we going to push Rohit down and play Mayank and Prithvi in India up front? I suppose the latter will happen. We will need a left-arm spinner or have to rehabilitate Kuldeep for the India tests and add a third spinner. Bhuvi and Ishant will be back.


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Re: India in Australia, 2020-21

Post by Sin Hombre »

We do not need Vihari to beat England at home.

We do need Jadeja if we are to beat England 4-0 at home. Jadeja, Ashwin, Kuldeep at 7-8-9 is a very good lower middle order in Indian conditions.

How is Hardik's back?


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Re: India in Australia, 2020-21

Post by Kumar »

Very old article article about Punjabi trying his bowling sikills

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/chet ... lls-727139


So if Mayans is not fit, it is a easier choice

Vihari - Shaw or Saha
Jadeja - Shaw or Saha
If Bumrah not fit, - Shardul or Nat
Ashwin not fit - yadav


Going to be a massacre, but this team has outperformed so far! Hopefully they can sustain it for one more test

Natraj, Tyagi substitute

I would think bone injury Would not get worse! Pant should be okay to bat
Do we know details of Pujara injury?


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Re: India in Australia, 2020-21

Post by Atithee »

I’m very worried about bodyline bowling and further injuries to our team at Gabba. We don’t want to be so out of depth even for the England series at home.


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Re: India in Australia, 2020-21

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The other wildcard is Washington Sundar, who is a decent bat and a decent bowler. If Ashwin cannot go and we do not want to weaken the batting further, maybe Sundar gets drafted in. Especially if the pitch is green and it seems like Kuldeep will not be useful, get Sundar into the team and then into the XI. The reason is that we are managing our risks. Maybe Sundar will not be effective as a bowler. But, we know he can keep one end tied up with line and length and not spray things all over the place like a fourth pacer will do. Then, with some luck, he can produce a few runs with his bat. So, we will get some utility out of him.
Last edited by prasen9 on Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:16 am, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: India in Australia, 2020-21

Post by Atithee »

What about Washington Sundar? He’s also around. He could be a like for like Ashwin replacement?

What about Australia? Do they have any injury woes? Is Warner fit?

Edit: Sorry—didn’t see Prasen’s post.


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Re: India in Australia, 2020-21

Post by prasen9 »

Hey, nothing to be sorry about. I do not mind the support. :-)