Indian Premier League (IPL)

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Sin Hombre
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Re: Indian Premier League (IPL)

Post by Sin Hombre »

KL is the best batsman in this IPL, period.

@prasen not sure why you bring up Rayadu.

My point is Karthik can inflate his average with his unbeaten 36 off 26 today but that was a match losing innings and holds no value.
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Re: Indian Premier League (IPL)

Post by PKBasu »

Rahul, Shreyas Iyer and Suryakumar Yadav have been the standout batsmen of this IPL. And PP Shaw and Rishabh Pant close behind, with Shubman Gill playing one match-winning innings among the few chances he's got. MSD has done his thing too. The other oldies are not doing anything special, although Rayudu has indeed put his hand up with several fine innings.
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Re: Indian Premier League (IPL)

Post by prasen9 »

Subjectively, everyone is free to say whatever they want to say. One can say Yuvraj has been the best batsman in this IPL. Period. I don't want to argue about that.

Rayudu has played well this season but you do not mention him. That is why.

I used a metric and showed who is doing well using that metric. I don't want to get into a protracted argument with anyone who comes up with "I think ... XYZ has happened." Sure. Fine. Move on.
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Re: Indian Premier League (IPL)

Post by prasen9 »

Sin Hombre wrote: Sun May 06, 2018 6:07 pm My point is Karthik can inflate his average with his unbeaten 36 off 26 today but that was a match losing innings and holds no value.
Karthik got a very hard task today and the chances of failure were always high. Rana and Russell dug a huge hole :-( At least he scored some runs at a good clip. By this token, we should drop any innings played when the team lost. All I am saying is that if you want to drop all non-win runs, do it for everyone and while we are at it drop all runs where the batsman scored below the opponent's average strike rate. That would be an interesting statistic to check out. Unfortunately, it is too complicated to compute (for me). For example, I agree with you that Iyer, Pant, and Shaw have played very well this IPL. However, using this criterion, we should drop all his innings when Delhi lost.

BTW, I am not saying that Iyer and Rahul have not played well this season. Quite the contrary. They have the numbers to show that too apart from subjective likes. Wrt Shaw, the sample size is still too small. Wrt Gill, he has not been consistent.

Surya has played consistently but he has been very slow. I would pick Rayudu, Kohli, Pant, Rahul, Iyer, Dhoni, and Karthik over Surya any day based on performance till date in this IPL only.
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Re: Indian Premier League (IPL)

Post by prasen9 »

So, now Iyer's innings is useless!

Not.
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Re: Indian Premier League (IPL)

Post by PKBasu »

prasen9 wrote: Sun May 06, 2018 10:03 pm So, now Iyer's innings is useless!

Not.
Not entirely sure what this is about :roll:

Rayudu has the orange cap at the moment, and Surya Yadav is second, followed by Pant, Rahul and Dhoni.

Kohli had the orange cap for awhile, but he was embarrassed by that, given that his team was losing so often. Prithwi Shaw (65 off 36) and Shreyas Iyer (44 off 36, one of his less-successful innings this season) were on the losing side in the latest match, but both were substantive innings -- eclipsed by Yusuf Pathan's blitzkrieg (a rare successful one from him this season). Shaw has just started coming into his own (having played 5 innings), but has shown his abilities in the last two matches. Gill too is gradually coming into his own, but these two are really the standout players of their generation. Pant is a pure T20 specialist so far, but needs to translate that into T20I performances.

Iyer's last 6 innings have been 52 (off 31), 57 (off 45), 93* (off 40), 13 (off 14), 50 (off 35) and this 44 (off 36). Excellent run, apart from the 13.
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Re: Indian Premier League (IPL)

Post by prasen9 »

PKBasu wrote: Mon May 07, 2018 1:23 am
prasen9 wrote: Sun May 06, 2018 10:03 pm So, now Iyer's innings is useless!

Not.
Not entirely sure what this is about :roll:
A response to Sin Hombre who said that Karthik's innings is useless because his side lost.

Before we call for any meaningful action based on these performances, we should keep in mind that even the entire IPL is a very small sample size. Someone goes on a run and then we anoint him as the next savior.
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Re: Indian Premier League (IPL)

Post by Sin Hombre »

prasen9 wrote: Mon May 07, 2018 1:50 am
PKBasu wrote: Mon May 07, 2018 1:23 am
prasen9 wrote: Sun May 06, 2018 10:03 pm So, now Iyer's innings is useless!

Not.
Not entirely sure what this is about :roll:
A response to Sin Hombre who said that Karthik's innings is useless because his side lost.

Before we call for any meaningful action based on these performances, we should keep in mind that even the entire IPL is a very small sample size. Someone goes on a run and then we anoint him as the next savior.
No need to put words in my mouth :roll:

I did not say his innings was useless because his side lost. Just a few comments back, I praised Shaw for his excellent 50 in a losing cause.

Scoring an unbeaten 36 off 26 in a chase when his team needed 150+ SR to pad your averages is.
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Re: Indian Premier League (IPL)

Post by Sin Hombre »

I went through all the matches of IPL and my post failed since I got automatically signed off :mad:

I allocated 1 point for every 25 runs scored at a match winning S/R; and the Indian players ended up as (if I remember correctly)

10 points = Rahul, Pant, Dhoni
7 points = Suryakumar, Iyer
6 points = Rohit, Samson
5 points = Shaw (in half the games), Raina
4 points = Rayadu, Kohli, Dhawan, Karun Nair

Disastrous with 2 points or less were Pandey, Karthik, Hardik and Rahane. Gill has 2 points in half the games.

Surprisingly given praasen's insistence, Rayadu ends up quite poorly here which shows that he has scored a lot of cheap runs, as has Kohli in this IPL. Karthik is another who is in the top 10 for the orange cup without really performing.
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Re: Indian Premier League (IPL)

Post by PKBasu »

I don't think Rayudu has scored cheap runs. (I'm not a big fan of his, but I have noticed that he has done very well this year, and actually was somewhat unfairly dropped from the ODI side after several fine performances).
He made 79 off 37 balls in a match-winning knock against Sunrisers Hyderabad, and then made 82 off 53 in another match that CSK won (albeit mainly because of MSD's late-innings heroics) against RCB. He now opens the innings, so he can't get too many cheap runs in meaningless knocks. I can spot just one innings (of 21 at a strike rate of 128) where he has batted slower than the team average (and another innings of 22 at a strike rate of 116 in a smaller, successful chase). The one striking thing, though, is that he has got run out a lot.
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Re: Indian Premier League (IPL)

Post by prasen9 »

Sin Hombre wrote: Mon May 07, 2018 4:13 am I allocated 1 point for every 25 runs scored at a match winning S/R; and the Indian players ended up as (if I remember correctly)
What is a match winning SR? A SR above the opponent's SR or does it need the person's team to have won the match? Your metric also puts in the same bucket someone who scored 26 and someone who scored 49. This ad-hoc meaningless quantization perhaps should be avoided. I do not know if it is creating distortions but it could. You can award points only after they score 25 but award say .04 points for every run scored over that. Of course, the calculation becomes more difficult.

This also pertains to a philosophy where everyone should be trying to hitting above the opponent's SR. Otherwise, their effort is not valued at all. Several teams go with the philosophy that 1-2 batsmen will play a tad slowly to build the base while the others can hit around them. The base-builders are not picked up by this metric at all, whereas looking at only average does not reward the big hitters at all.

What this metric does is that it identifies the biggest hitters who have played some medium sized to long innings. A team of seven of these will not necessarily maximize wins.

What about the # of MoMs?
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Re: Indian Premier League (IPL)

Post by prasen9 »

PKBasu wrote: Mon May 07, 2018 5:00 am I don't think Rayudu has scored cheap runs. (I'm not a big fan of his, but I have noticed that he has done very well this year, and actually was somewhat unfairly dropped from the ODI side after several fine performances).
He made 79 off 37 balls in a match-winning knock against Sunrisers Hyderabad, and then made 82 off 53 in another match that CSK won (albeit mainly because of MSD's late-innings heroics) against RCB. He now opens the innings, so he can't get too many cheap runs in meaningless knocks. I can spot just one innings (of 21 at a strike rate of 128) where he has batted slower than the team average (and another innings of 22 at a strike rate of 116 in a smaller, successful chase). The one striking thing, though, is that he has got run out a lot.
So, he must have got 3 points based on Sin Hombre's calculations for the first match. Now, he should be getting 3 points because of the other match but seems like he did not. Was RCB's SR more than 82 off 53? Possibly assuming SH's calculation is correct. If so, this shows the fallacy of the SR only (with 25 run qual) method.
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Re: Indian Premier League (IPL)

Post by Sin Hombre »

I am not sure of this supposed fallacy.

Going @ 154 SR for almost half the balls in a 171 SR chase means everyone else has to score at 188.

Fortunately from CSK's perspective, Dhoni scored at 200+ in the referenced match.


Ideally, of course, you have a continuous scale and 25 doesn't get rewarded the same as 49, and 20 below required SR is not the same as 1 below required SR but I don't have the time for that.
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Re: Indian Premier League (IPL)

Post by prasen9 »

Sin Hombre wrote: Tue May 08, 2018 3:33 am Going @ 154 SR for almost half the balls in a 171 SR chase means everyone else has to score at 188.
Dhoni does this regularly. Basically, he believes that the big hitters can score big but only if the score is close enough and you have enough wickets to get those big hitters swing freely. Many other teams do this regularly. They do not stack the team with only the best SR people. If someone scores 25 and gets out at 172, they would get a point but Rayudu would not. The person who scored the 25 and got out only played a fast cameo. That would not have won things. On the other hand, a long innings that is just slightly slow but not too slow lays the platform and gives the big hitters a platform to get over the hump.

The runs/over is also more towards the end. Around 10 runs/over whereas in the middle overs it is not. So, it is easier to play faster at the end rather than someone who is stitching the innings together and is playing a long innings. The field restrictions are different.

Also, the "platform" innings makes sure that even if you lose, you do not land up in a huge RR deficit hole.

It would be interesting to see if avg*SR or some form of normalized product correlates to more wins. I am not convinced that SR alone is good enough.

Making it continuous instead of quantized would help in improving the metric. I understand you do not have the time to do that. Neither do I. Hence I was choosing the avg. I guess one could put some filter for the SR on the average.

I used to calculate the "number of balls wasted" as a metric for who is responsible for a loss. For example, if you were chasing 300 runs and your team did not get all out at the end but lost, then the number of runs scored - number of balls faced gives you the deficit someone created. When the total is not 300, then you can adjust the formula a bit. If you get all out at the end, then the lowest scorers are the ones to blame though.
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Re: Indian Premier League (IPL)

Post by PKBasu »

This has been the wrist-spinners' IPL. Rashid Khan, Kuldeep Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal, Piyush Chawla, Amit Mishra, Sandeep Lamichhane, Imran Tahir (occasionally) have been the undoubted bowling star. Wrist spin is back big time!
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