India in Australia, 2018-2019

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Re: India in Australia, 2018-2019

Post by ssp » Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:08 pm

I'd like to spare Bumrah from these ODIs. We need to keep him fit for test matches and only the really important ODIs.

Going back to the debate regarding openers: Yes, our poor starts may have cost us the series but the real difference was the runs contributed by the lower order of the 2 teams. Curran and a few others swung the matches away from us, whilst our lower order was generally rubbish. This has been a trend for several losses abroad.

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Re: India in Australia, 2018-2019

Post by Atithee » Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:22 pm

Ssp, yes, I’ve been on this lower order flesh in the thorn for several years. For India, it makes the value of the opening pair even more critical, not less!

I am quite sure the correlation and even causality of a test win to a good opening stand (runs and/or balls faced) is strong while the other way may not be true. Someone should do a null and alternate hypothesis testing for this. Maybe I will one of these days.

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Re: India in Australia, 2018-2019

Post by jaydeep » Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:37 pm

ssp wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:08 pm
I'd like to spare Bumrah from these ODIs. We need to keep him fit for test matches and only the really important ODIs.
ssp, they heard you ... The selectors have decided to rest Bumrah for the forthcoming ODI series in Australia and the New Zealand tour ... Mohammed Siraj has been declared as his replacement for these series and Siddarth Kaul has been added for the T20I series in New Zealand.

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Re: India in Australia, 2018-2019

Post by PKBasu » Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:37 pm

It beats me why Siddharth Kaul keeps getting picked. He has 0/179 in 3 ODIs.

Also, I find it bizarre that Vijay Shankar keeps getting mentioned as an alternative to Hardik Pandya. Vijay Shankar has a decent batting record in first class cricket (averaging 48, not enough for automatic selection as an India test batsman), but averages 50+ with the ball. He played 3 matches for India A in NZ (where his type of bowling should have thrived), but took just 1 wicket (for 150 runs over 3 matches). Similarly, in 2 Ranji games since returning, he has 1 wicket for 147 runs! (Pandya, on the other hand, played one Ranji game, took a 5-fer and 7 wickets in the match, plus made 71 -- and basically forced his way back into the test squad; Vijay Shankar is not remotely a test-class allrounder).

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Re: India in Australia, 2018-2019

Post by Atithee » Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:51 pm

PKB—spot on regarding Kaul. Shankar, not so sure but I agree that Pandya is ahead. I’m worried about Pandya’s attitude though. Others may like it. As long as he performs on the field, I could accept his attitude even though I wish he didn’t do some of the things he does on and off the field.

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Re: India in Australia, 2018-2019

Post by Atithee » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:54 pm

prasen9 wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:59 am
I understand that is the "conventional" or anecdotal wisdom. However, is there any evidence with respect to a cause-effect relation? As opposed to simply a correlation confounded by other factors such as state of the pitch and strength of the opposition?
Prasen, does this study help? You’re better at judging the statistical aspect of the data presented.

https://www.cse.iitk.ac.in/users/anurag ... Report.pdf

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Re: India in Australia, 2018-2019

Post by indiansportsfan » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:00 pm

Kaul and Shankar are still one of the best T20 bowler and seaming all-rounder respectively in the country after the regulars. So they definitely need to be given chances. Lets not discard after only 1 or 2 chances.

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Re: India in Australia, 2018-2019

Post by ssp » Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:02 pm

Siddarth Kaul was appalling in the Asia. Surely there are better options than him.

Pleased to see the selectors making the right decision (for once) regarding Bumrah. If only they listened more to all of us on this forum ;)

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Re: India in Australia, 2018-2019

Post by prasen9 » Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:15 pm

Atithee, thank you for doing the search and providing the pointer. I will read it carefully and reply more. I think a good opening stand should indeed help a lot but good teams can also overcome not having a good opener. More later. I found 1-2 more papers on these lines. I will post a summary.

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Re: India in Australia, 2018-2019

Post by prasen9 » Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:44 am

Hopefully, in the ODIs, we will have Pandya, Khalil and Shami/Bhuvi based on how strong or weak our tail is. Bhuvi will possibly play if we play both Chahal and Kuldeep, which is what we should do. So chances that Siraj will get a game in the 3 game series is low. He will come in only if there are two injuries, I presume. Or one injury and a pacy pitch.

Siddharth Kaul is coming in for the T20Is and not the ODIs. In the T20Is, he averages 13/wicket at 6.5runs/over. In 85 T20s, he averages 23-24 runs/wicket at 7.26 per over. Pretty deserving candidate, I'd say.

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Re: India in Australia, 2018-2019

Post by PKBasu » Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:19 am

Yes, I noticed later that Kaul is in the T20I squad, not ODI. That is the right selection.

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Re: India in Australia, 2018-2019

Post by prasen9 » Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:46 pm

I think the more perplexing question is the presence of Rahul in the ODI team given that Rohit and Shastri say that this is pretty much the team that will go to the WC. Of course, the fringe players can be changed. The backup bat in the lower MO is Karthik. Given that the ICC typically asks that pitches be somewhat more docile during the WC, I wonder if we need a backup opener or can Karthik do it? Karthik played as an ODI opener in 2009-2010 for about 20 matches or so and did not do very well. But, he did not do very well overall at that time. If we think Karthik cannot do it, then perhaps Rahul as the backup opener makes some sense if you want only experienced players to be picked. Rahane may give you a few more runs than Rahul going by current form but he is also a tad slower. I like Iyer especially if the pitches are on the flatter side but he has not opened in ODIs. I do not know for sure but I don't think he opens in List-As that much either. Again, we have made ODI openers out of MO bats galore. So, I would chose Iyer as the second backup bat. And, Karthik needs to keep performing wherever he gets chances in order to keep his WC spot.

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Re: India in Australia, 2018-2019

Post by prasen9 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:59 pm

Rahul and Pandya are suspended until an enquiry is completed. This changes the team selection equation. The three pacers now become Bhuvi, Shami, and Khalil. If we choose both leggies, then the tail is a bit too long. So, we have to choose Jadeja and Kuldeep, I suppose. So, Kuldeep and Chahal are now competing for one spot.

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Re: India in Australia, 2018-2019

Post by prasen9 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:14 am

Kedar is out again! huh. They better hope and pray that one of our bowlers does not have a bad day. What is the thinking here? Who is bowler #6? Rohit does not turn his arm around anymore because of a rotator cuff injury. Rayudu? Kedar is a very good option to have as bowler #6 and a big hitter :-(

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Re: India in Australia, 2018-2019

Post by prasen9 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:49 am

Mitchel Marsh is sick and in the hospital. I am surprised that James Faulkner is not in their ODI team. Man of the match of the last WC final!

Our ODI bowling looks a bit iffy. Khalil does not seem to have figured out what to do outside India. Jadeja keeps it quiet but does not take that many wickets. If Pandya does not play, we cannot play the spin twins. Kuldeep seems like is being worked out. Bhuvi does not take wickets except with the new ball. If Bumrah does not play, then we are rather weak :-(

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