Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

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Prashant
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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Prashant » Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:28 pm

Is Srikanth really a no-hoper? With a good draw could he make a semifinal?



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by prasen9 » Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:32 pm

Every dog has his day. We know that. But what about Sri Ka't'? That does not seem as clear [Exit stage rubbing chin thinking hard ...]



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre » Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:38 am

Prashant wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:28 pm
Is Srikanth really a no-hoper? With a good draw could he make a semifinal?
Complete no-hoper.

Even in his best form, he chokes at the biggest tournaments. There are probably 10+ active players who have a medal at the Olympics or WCH. He hasn't even made a semis.

Moreover, his form against top 5-6 opposition is ludicrously bad. 1 win in the last 15 or something, and he will need to win 2 such matches to medal.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre » Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:46 am

Let's demote Manu to the no-hoper category.

Sindhu we should evaluate again after the WCH, Saina as well. I think if the latter's return from injury is good, she might move up a category.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by jayakris » Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:00 am

prasen9 wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:32 pm
Every dog has his day. We know that. But what about Sri Ka't'? That does not seem as clear [Exit stage rubbing chin thinking hard ...]
LOL at the chin-rubbing.... You know that hot dogs always get eaten up. He is one.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:25 am

So, only moving Manu to no-hopers list as of now -

Would be disappointed if they do not medal

PV Sindhu (women's singles badminton)
Bajrang Punia (men's 65kg wrestling)

Likely medal contenders but would like to see a few more world class performances first

Mirabai Chanu (48kg women's weightlifting)
Saurabh Chaudhary (men's 10m air pistol)
Saurabh Chaudhary/Manu Bhaker ( Mens air pistol mixed team)
Amit Phangal (men's 52 kg boxing)

Will be in contention / reach finals ( top 8)

Neeraj Chopra (men's javelin)

Apurvi Chandela (10M Air rifle)
Divyansh Singh Panwar / Anjum Modugil (Air rifle mixed team)
Vinesh Phogat (women's 48-50kg wrestling)

Could win a medal with some luck

Saina Nehwal (women's singles badminton)
Kavinder Singh Bisht (men's 56kg boxing)
Anjum Moudgil (10m air rifle)
Divyansh Singh Panwar (10m air rifle)
Abhishek Verma (men's 10m air pistol)
Pooja Dhanda ( womens 57 kg)


Rational mind knows they are no-hopers but we will still hope

men's field hockey team
Kidambi Srikanth (men's singles badminton)
men's doubles tennis
mixed doubles table tennis
Sakshi Malik (women's 62kg wrestling)
Mary Kom (women's 51kg boxing)
Atanu Das & Deepika Kumari (recurve archers)
Deepa Karmakar ( womens gymnastics)
Manu Bhaker (10m/25m women's air pistol)



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre » Thu May 30, 2019 12:11 pm

Saurabh, Apurvi, Saurabh+Manu, Anjum+Divyansh should all be moved one tier up. Divyansh should be moved one tier down.

Would hold off on Apurvi+Deepak until the latter qualifies.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Thu May 30, 2019 3:55 pm

Yes, this is the updated list . Also put Manu back in the list and Rahi too-

Would be disappointed if they do not medal

PV Sindhu (women's singles badminton)
Bajrang Punia (men's 65kg wrestling)
Saurabh Chaudhary (men's 10m air pistol)
Saurabh Chaudhary/Manu Bhaker ( Mens air pistol mixed team)
Apurvi Chandela (10M Air rifle)

Likely medal contenders but would like to see a few more world class performances first

Mirabai Chanu (48kg women's weightlifting)
Divyansh Singh Panwar / Anjum Modugil (Air rifle mixed team)
Amit Phangal (men's 52 kg boxing)

Will be in contention / reach finals ( top 8)

Neeraj Chopra (men's javelin)
Vinesh Phogat (women's 48-50kg wrestling)
Manu Bhaker (Womens 10M Air Pistol)

Could win a medal with some luck

Saina Nehwal (women's singles badminton)
Kavinder Singh Bisht (men's 56kg boxing)
Anjum Moudgil (10m air rifle)
Divyansh Singh Panwar (10m air rifle)
Abhishek Verma (men's 10m air pistol)
Pooja Dhanda ( womens 57 kg)
Rahi Sarnobat (Womens 25M pistol)


Rational mind knows they are no-hopers but we will still hope
men's field hockey team
Kidambi Srikanth (men's singles badminton)
men's doubles tennis
mixed doubles table tennis
Sakshi Malik (women's 62kg wrestling)
Mary Kom (women's 51kg boxing)
Atanu Das & Deepika Kumari (recurve archers)
Deepa Karmakar ( womens gymnastics)
Manu Bhaker (10m/25m women's air pistol)

So, putting the probabilities as 70%, 40 %, 25%, 10% and 5 % to the respective lists the total likely medal tally goes up to around 6 now.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre » Fri May 31, 2019 8:24 am

Think it is a bit too early for Apurvi to be in the highest tier, especially given her history at the biggest tournaments like the Olympics and AG. Would like to see her maintain this for a couple more tournaments.

At this point, she gives me an impression of Jitu Rai.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by depleter » Fri May 31, 2019 8:55 am

Sin Hombre wrote:
Fri May 31, 2019 8:24 am
Think it is a bit too early for Apurvi to be in the highest tier, especially given her history at the biggest tournaments like the Olympics and AG. Would like to see her maintain this for a couple more tournaments.

At this point, she gives me an impression of Jitu Rai.
But Jitu Rai has won everywhere except the olympics. Even in Asian games he won a gold.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Fri May 31, 2019 4:05 pm

Yes, if we would have prepared such list a year before Rio, we would have put Jitu in the top list. It was unfortunate that he could not deliver in Rio.

But, not necessary that same thing will happen with Apurvi. Hopefully not. It is true that she could deliver at Rio and at the Asiad. But, this year she has been exceptionally good both in qualifying and final and is rightfully ranked #1 in the world. So, my opinion is she belongs to the top list as of now.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by srini » Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:29 pm

Small correction, not about the predictions but the category...we call it "Air pistol Mixed" not "Men's Air pistol mixed" do we ? We got it all mixed up :rofl:



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by depleter » Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:07 pm

srini wrote:
Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:29 pm
Small correction, not about the predictions but the category...we call it "Air pistol Mixed" not "Men's Air pistol mixed" do we ? We got it all mixed up :rofl:
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by IndiaSports » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:38 am

Guys, out of curiosity what about the qualifying events for other sports like boxing, wrestling, weightlifting, gymnastics, etc.
I hear no news on those. Did any of our athletes make it to Tokyo 2020, apart from our shooter?
Maybe we should also start making a list of all our athletes or events we qualified in?

I know, in tennis, it will be based on the world ranking, hopefully, Prajnesh will make it and Sania gets a WC.
In athletics, they have to breach the qualifying mark set by the IAAF.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Wed Jun 05, 2019 4:49 am

Shooting is advances in terms of sending qualifiers to Tokyo. In almost all other sports, the qualification process is yet to begin.

For instance, for wrestling the first event is world championships in September. For boxing, the qualification process is still to be announced as there were issues between federation and IOA due to which it's inclusion itself was under thread. That is sorted out now and the qualification process is still to be announced.

For some other sports like Tennis, Badminton, Weightlifting it is based on rankings. So, the final qualification will be known only somewhere in the May next year.



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