Tokyo Olympics 2020

[srini]

Thanks Sameer, that’s excellent info about the positive testing of Thai athletes and restriction on number of lifters from same nation, there is no need to revise expectations for Chanu at least until 2019 world championships. And one more thing this Gracesports does seem to have a mature model, they did predict India would come down to 5 medals in Rio though it had 6 medals from London. If it were only using GDP etc it wouldn’t have estimated that way and with data analytics getting matured we can rely on their Tokyo predictions. I was also not counting on any medal in badminton not even from Sindhu this time

[arjun2761]

Thanks for sharing the list, Sameer.

That really looks like a list of medal possibilities. Very few on that list have >70% chance of a medal with most being likely under 50%. I would certainly add Sindhu to that list and in the category of "will always fail when it counts" we can also add Mens Hockey since the Mens recurve team seems to somehow be on the list.

I still think that winning 5+ (i.e., say 6 or 7) would be a success given these athletes.

[Sin Hombre]

It does appear to be based on event-based and individual-based analysis. This is a detailed article on this-

Is India ready to make telling impact on the Olympic stage?

They seem to be predicting 4 medals in wrestling, 5 in shooting, 3 in boxing and 1 each in archery and weightlifting.

If we compare them to our projections, and use the likely ones for us, comparison

Wrestling : 4 (Grace) vs 1 (Sports-India). Anything more than 2 is very unrealistic and needs lightning to strike twice.
Shooting : 5 (Grace) vs 4 (Sports-India). Quite similar.
Boxing : 3 (Grace) vs 1 (Sports-India). This prediction from Grace is a joke.
Archery : 1 (Grace) vs 0 (Sports-India)
Weightlifting : 1 (Grace) vs 1 (Sports-India)
Badminton : 0 (Grace) vs 1 (Sports-India)

I am quite baffled by how they can allocate 3 medals to us in boxing in particular.


We at SI are projecting 8 medals which while being a record high for us, is realistic.

[sameerph]

Mens archery team did win silver recently at the world championships. So, them winning a medal is not ruled out although archery teams have almost always disappointed in the past.

But, realistically as we said 3 in shooting, 1 each in wrestling, Weightlifting, badminton and boxing is realistic expectation.

[srini]

Boxing is entirely an unknown / blind spot area when it comes to predicting solely because of the churn it’s going through, for example AIBA becomes the first international federation not authorised/ barred from holding its own event at Olympic. I mean we have heard national associations being barred from participating or sending athletes but never the international body itself.IOC has taken complete control over deciding the qualification criteria, organising the Olympic event etc which may mean some sanity can be expected in the outcome of matches which were largely dubious in their decision. One more big change is 2016 olympics had 10 men’s events and 3 women events while in 2020 it will be 8 and 5 to bring some gender parity. So it’s all a new world out there we are going witness in Tokyo and Grace sports can be allowed to take its wild guess on how many medals a nation may get in boxing at least. To it’s credit Grace has named Sonia Chahal who is silver medalist in 2018 world championship in her category...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonia_Chahal
so i mean why not she doesn’t deserve mention in Grace list?

[sameerph]

It looks like Grace list had considered Sonia Chahal and Lovlina Borgohain as medalists based on their similar level medals in last world championships. But, that world championships was held in New Delhi and usually we have seen that their home country advantage in judging in boxing. So, we have not kept them as possible medalists in our SI list. Need to see at least 1 more world class performance from them. But, I think we should include these 2 at least in the the list of " Could win a medal with some luck ".

I think we should update this list after a couple of months when a few more world level events are concluded.

[arjun2761]

Yes, boxing results in one tournament just means you are a medal possibility. Sonia Chahal who won a silver at WC, won a bronze in Asian Championship the next year, so she is reasonably consistent but it is also possible that the field in the Olympics will be tougher than in the WC especially since the number of weight classes get compressed into fewer weight classes.

[Sin Hombre]

Even if you include Sonia to Amit, that gets us to 2 medals in boxing. 4 is still far away.

Now to the why for Sonia
- home tournament (amateur boxing sees 1-2/5 judges swing if you are at home)
- weak field (gold medalist from the Asian championships wasn't there)
- past poor performances in new disciplines at Olympics (we have seen this movie play out in the past; new disciplines get added to women's sports. We win medals at "world championships" but by the time the Olympics comes, everyone has not only caught up but gone way past us. Previous examples include women's weightlifting and boxing itself).
- weight categories will merge at the Olympics so you have to fight strong boxers from other weights as well.

I agree with sameer that we could add Sonia to the 4th category but Lovlina is quite a stretch.

[SaniaFan]

We probably need to re check the list again. I think following are at least one place higher than where they should be
PV Sindhu
Saina Nehwal
Neeraj Chopra

and Abhshek Verma is one place lower.

[srini]

It’s not like we can exactly predict who all are going to medal, there will always be some surprise medals and some shocking misses.I guess we can all suggest but can’t insist changes on Sameer’s list which I think is very rational and closest we can get at predicting in the absence of any AI driven analytics model

[rajitghosh]

I wonder how AI predicts the mental strength of a player and ability to win medal against all odds? For example, could they have predicted Leander's medal?

[sameerph]

We probably need to re check the list again. I think following are at least one place higher than where they should be
PV Sindhu
Saina Nehwal
Neeraj Chopra

and Abhshek Verma is one place lower.

PVS has been runner up at last world championships and also won year ending championships last year. So, I would not hold her bad form this year and mover her down as yet. She is someone who has a habit of coming good in big events. Saina has been in reasonable form when playing and Neeraj has been injured.

Most of the major world level events ( like world championships in wrestling, boxing and badminton) will get done by end September. So, that is a perfect time to update the list based on performances in those events.

[srini]

Though not a medal prospect i am excited at the possibility of following Indian participation in a new event sabre as Bhavani devi qualification chances are high

https://thebridge.in/breakout-bhavani-d ... 0-chances/

[prasen9]

I wonder how AI predicts the mental strength of a player and ability to win medal against all odds?

By examining past data on a player, e.g., in Davis Cup matches assuming such data exists. Other potential features could be performance in slams, against top players, in tie-breakers, in deciding set, etc.

For example, could they have predicted Leander's medal?

It all depends upon the model and what data is available. No human could have predicted anything from LP with any certainty either. Prediction is a funny sport.

[Sin Hombre]

Anyone from sports-india going to Tokyo to watch the Olympics next year?