Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by IndiaSports » Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:29 am

Irfan Thodi is the only one from athletics to have qualified so far.
The mark for javelin is 85m, hoping Neeraj and Shivpal Singh will achieve that standard by end of this year.
The standard set by IAAF across all events is quite high, so rest of them will have to put their best foot forward.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:56 am

The next closest event which counts for Tokyo Olympic qualifications is world archery championships from 10th to 16th June in Netherlands where top 8 teams in mens and womens recurve team events will qualify and will also get 3 individual athlete spots there.

Nothin much really can be said about our archery teams as due to mess in our federation, our archers could not compete in 1 of the 3 world cup events this year, a second string team was sent for the second world cup and they fared poorly in the third world cup.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre » Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:45 am

14 medal prediction for us from this lot
http://www.gracenote.com/virtual-medal-table/

1G, 5S, 8B



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Wed Jul 24, 2019 5:15 am

Don't know from where this 14 medal projection is coming from ? Too optimistic by any standards.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by jayakris » Wed Jul 24, 2019 5:19 am

But only 1 gold predicted. I think the 8 bronze is too many. 5 silver is probably 2 too many too. Can we get 1+3+4 or something?



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre » Thu Jul 25, 2019 3:17 am

The way I see it is golds are an indication of the likeliest medals and their model believe that we only have one likely medal.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Thu Jul 25, 2019 9:48 am

That is too pessimistic in that case. I will be happy if we can at least get back to 6 medal haul which we achieved in London. If we can get 1+3+4 as Jay said or something similar will be great.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by srini » Thu Jul 25, 2019 5:59 pm

With mixed events in shooting, i would be disappointed with any thing less than 2 Golds in shooting. Bronze ans silver I agree are too many who ever came up with that estimation model



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre » Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:29 am

sameerph wrote:
Thu Jul 25, 2019 9:48 am
That is too pessimistic in that case. I will be happy if we can at least get back to 6 medal haul which we achieved in London. If we can get 1+3+4 as Jay said or something similar will be great.
I wouldn't look it that way.

Would imagine gold = 95% confidence of a medal; silver = 70% confidence of a medal, bronze = 40% confidence of a medal.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by prasen9 » Fri Jul 26, 2019 5:23 pm

They possibly have some distributions with each event and medal, etc. if they really did this right. I think the predicted values based on whatever their model takes, prior year's performance, current performance in events, economic development, government and private investment in sports, etc. the expected values of gold, silver, and bronze are those numbers: 1, 3, 8 (?). Which means that they possibly have identified more than 12 medalists but with varying probabilities.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by srini » Sun Jul 28, 2019 3:38 am

We haven’t revised the medal prospects in a while. Mirabai Chanu can be moved from Likely medal contenders to “ can win with some luck “ as she is moving up from 48 kg to 49 kg as 48 kg has been replaced by 49kg and since 53kg has also been removed some of these moved to 49 making it a tough event to compete. The 2018 world championship in which Mira didn’t complete, the medal performances have been 209, 208, 206 even the fourth best lifter also lifted 201 kg. Mira’s personal best has been 196 kg. So I guess data is enough to revise our expectations
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Wo ... %27s_49_kg



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Sun Jul 28, 2019 5:38 am

Mirabai improved her personal best to 199 kgs. in Asian championships in April in 49 kgs. If you look at those results, there are 2 Chinese and 2 Thais in the top 4. Since then, Thai gold medalists has been tested positive and banned. And 3 of their world championship gold medalists have tested positive. So, there are chances that Thailand will be banned altogether.

Further, there will be only 1 competitor per country at olympics and there are further restrictions on total number of participant per country too. So, at most there be only 1 Chinese in this weight class and that too is not certain ( depending on their prospects in other weight classes).

So, results of Asian weightlifting championships in April 2019 are more relevant where Mirabai finished 4th at 199 kgs just behind a Chinese who also lifted the same and a North Korean who lifted 200 kgs to take silver. Another Chinese won the gold with 208 kgs.

So, with 1 only Chinese ( at most) at Tokyo, Mirabai still ranks in top 3 in Asia which effectively means top 3 in world.

So, we will let her remain in likely medal winners category until we get more evidence that others are moving up. 2019 world weightlifting championships in September will show us where she stands.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by arjun2761 » Sun Jul 28, 2019 10:21 am

The prediction of 14 medals is certainly bold given that we have won 14 medals total in the last NINE Olympic games (with 1G, 4S, and 9B).

We have done a little better in the last 3 Olympics winning 3, 6, and 2 medals respectively after having won a total of 3 medals in the previous 6 Olympics. I will be thrilled if we can win 5+ medals in 2020.

IIRC, there was a similar report before the last Olympics predicting 10+ medals for India and we ended up winning 2. I think some of these predictions factor in the GDP, population etc. which tends to push up the Indian estimate.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by prasen9 » Sun Jul 28, 2019 3:35 pm

Yes, I doubt anyone here believes that we will win over 10 medals. You are right. The GDP, population, economic growth rate are pushing these models. I doubt they do an event-based and individual-based analysis. I would be thrilled with 5 medals. I would be thrilled with 2 golds. Also thrilled with 4 gold+silvers.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Sun Jul 28, 2019 3:57 pm

It does appear to be based on event-based and individual-based analysis. This is a detailed article on this-

Is India ready to make telling impact on the Olympic stage?

They seem to be predicting 4 medals in wrestling, 5 in shooting, 3 in boxing and 1 each in archery and weightlifting.



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