Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

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prasen9
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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by prasen9 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:41 pm

Exactly. Among our likely medalists, we may see a 30% return. (I am just making the number up.) Then, among the 10-12 people who can be counted among to be in the top-68 in the world or so, there may be a 5% return but collectively, they may result in a medal due to a surprise somewhere. Again, I have not checked the numbers using a back-of-the-envelope calculation and it would be different among different sports. The ones who are junk and barely qualify will not get anything despite whatever randomness is involved.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre » Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:10 am

So not very random then?

Good that we are back on the same page :p



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by prasen9 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:28 am

Yes, page #2. :p

No the "random" I used in the last page was a loose comment - hyperbole. I meant to say that there is a random component, which plays a part but is not the be-all and end-all. The entire thing is not random at all, as we all agree.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by prasen9 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:29 am

prasen9 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:41 pm
Then, among the 10-12 people who can be counted among to be in the top-68 in the world or so, there may be a 5% return but collectively, they may result in a medal due to a surprise somewhere.
Ok, meant say top 6 to 8 in the world and not 68 :-)



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:03 am

So, based on current world rankings in various sport, let us look at who are currently in top 3 and from 4 to 8 in world.

Currently, there are 4 Indians among top 3 rankings in the world-

1. Mirabai Chanu- womens weightlifting 48 kgs- 2nd
2. Anjum Modugil- shooting womens 10M air rifle- 2nd
3. PV Sindhu- badminton womens singles- 3rd
4. Bajrang - freestyle wrestling 65 kgs,- 2nd

Following are ranked between 4 to 8-

Badminton- Srikanth , Shooting -Shahzar Rizvi, Apurvi Chandela ,Deepak Kumar , Boxing- Amit Panghal, Vikas Krishnan, mens hockey team,archery- womens team, I would include Vinesh,Saina Nehwal and Manu Bhaker in that list although they are ranked just outside top 8 and also,Neeraj Chopra as there are no rankings yet in athletics.

Anyone other than these winning a medal would be too random.

4 in top 3 and 12 in 4 to 8. If we take that those in top 3 would hold their rankings and a couple from among other 12 overperform, we are heading to around 6 medal level which we achieved in London.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Sat Oct 27, 2018 4:29 pm

I am updating the list after wrestling world championships.

Would be disappointed if they do not medal

PV Sindhu (women's singles badminton)
Bajrang Punia (men's 65kg wrestling)

Likely medal contenders but would like to see another world class performance first

Mirabai Chanu (48kg women's weightlifting)
Vinesh Phogat (women's 48-50kg wrestling)
Saurabh Chaudhary (men's 10m air pistol, 10m mixed)

Will be in contention / reach finals ( top 8)

Neeraj Chopra (men's javelin)
Manu Bhaker (10m/25m women's air pistol or 10m mixed)
Anjum Moudgil (10m air rifle, 50m women's rifle 3 positions, 10m mixed)
Amit Phangal (men's 46-49kg boxing)


On the upswing / could be a medal contender

Hima Das (women's 400m)
Hriday Hazarika (men's 10m air rifle, mixed 10m)
Anish Bhanwala (men's 25m rapid fire pistol)

Could win a medal with some luck


Saina Nehwal (women's singles badminton)
Vikas Krishan (men's 75kg boxing)
Tejaswini Sawant (50m women's rifle 3 positions)
Sanjeev Rajput (50m men's rifle 3 positions)
Rahi Sarnobat (25m women's air pistol)
One of Apurvi Chandela, Elavenil Valarivan or Mehuli Ghosh (10m women's air rifle)
Lakshay Sheoran (men's trap)
Abhishek Verma (men's 10m air pistol)
Pooja Dhanda ( womens 57 kg)
Deepak Kumar (10 M air rifle)


Rational mind knows they are no-hopers but we will still hope

men's field hockey team
Kidambi Srikanth (men's singles badminton)
men's doubles tennis
mixed doubles table tennis
Sakshi Malik (women's 62kg wrestling)
Mary Kom (women's 51kg boxing)
Atanu Das & Deepika Kumari (recurve archers)
Deepa Karmakar ( womens gymnastics)

I have put Bajrang in first list and Vinesh down in second. Added Pooja Dhanda and Deepak Kumar in fourth list and also added Deepa in last list with some hope as she is swithcing back to Prudunova as per reports.

Sinhombre/others- please indicate if any you feel any changes as per your opinion.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by prasen9 » Sat Oct 27, 2018 5:31 pm

Ahhhh. For the umpteenth time, Vikas Krishan. Sorry to be a pain in the you-know-where.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Sun Oct 28, 2018 4:18 am

Done. I had just copy-pasted Sinhombre's details and made changes. But, yes we are prone to call him Krishnan in the past. :-)



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:13 am

So, after spate of Asian championships and world cups, updating this list -

Would be disappointed if they do not medal

PV Sindhu (women's singles badminton)
Bajrang Punia (men's 65kg wrestling)

Likely medal contenders but would like to see a few more world class performances first

Mirabai Chanu (48kg women's weightlifting)
Saurabh Chaudhary (men's 10m air pistol)
Saurabh Chaudhary/Manu Bhaker ( Mens air pistol mixed team)
Amit Phangal (men's 52 kg boxing)

Will be in contention / reach finals ( top 8)

Neeraj Chopra (men's javelin)
Manu Bhaker (10m/25m women's air pistol or 10m mixed)
Apurvi Chandela (10M Air rifle)
Divyansh Singh Panwar / Anjum Modugil (Air rifle mixed team)
Vinesh Phogat (women's 48-50kg wrestling)

Could win a medal with some luck

Saina Nehwal (women's singles badminton)
Kavinder Singh Bisht (men's 56kg boxing)
Anjum Moudgil (10m air rifle)
Divyansh Singh Panwar (10m air rifle)
Abhishek Verma (men's 10m air pistol)
Pooja Dhanda ( womens 57 kg)


Rational mind knows they are no-hopers but we will still hope

men's field hockey team
Kidambi Srikanth (men's singles badminton)
men's doubles tennis
mixed doubles table tennis
Sakshi Malik (women's 62kg wrestling)
Mary Kom (women's 51kg boxing)
Atanu Das & Deepika Kumari (recurve archers)
Deepa Karmakar ( womens gymnastics)

I have put Saurabh/Manu is second category, also put Apurvi Chandela in top 8 list and moved Anjum down. Sindhu has been in poor form this year but still keeping her in top list due to her knack of performing at big events.

If one attaches probabilities to the chances, would put 70%, 40 %, 25%, 10% and 5 % to the respective lists, it adds to 5.25. So, we are looking at somewhere between 5 to 6 medals at this stage.

Others- please suggest if you feel any changes are needed.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by depleter » Mon Apr 29, 2019 10:44 am

sameerph wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:13 am
So, after spate of Asian championships and world cups, updating this list -

Will be in contention / reach finals ( top 8)

Manu Bhaker (10m/25m women's air pistol or 10m mixed)
Apurvi Chandela (10M Air rifle)
Anjum Moudgil (10m air rifle)
With Saurabh Chaudhary/Manu Bhaker mixed being differentiated from manu's solo, is manu still on the level of Apurvi or even Anjum when she has yet to win a medal in a world class field?
Apurvi and Anjum's last 3 international performances

Apurvi - 2018 World Championships - 627.5 - 207(4th)
2019 Delhi WC - 629.3 252.9(1st)(WR)
2019 Beijing WC - 630.9 207.8(4th)

Anjum - 2018 World Championships - 628.7 248.4(2nd)
2019 Delhi WC - 628.0(just missed the final as the 8th place qualifier had a score of 628.1)
2019 Beijing WC - 629.4 164.6(6th)

Now if we consider qualifying scores of this season's national selection trails, 4 selection trails took place till now. 1 and 2 b/w 20th dec - 30th dec.
3 and 4 b/w 5 mar - 19 mar.

Apurvi - 628, 629.2. She didn't participate in 3rd and 4th trails.
Anjum - 624.9, 621.1, 629, 633.2.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:05 pm

I agree with you depleter. I had thought of removing Manu from that list and forgot about it. I will remove Manu from the list after hearing if there are some other suggestions.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by indiansportsfan » Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:41 pm

I think Sindhu should be 1 level down after her recent performances.
Manu should be in the no-hoper list.
Bisht could move up a spot.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Varma » Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:27 pm

indiansportsfan wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:41 pm
I think Sindhu should be 1 level down after her recent performances.
She has performed consistently well at these big events, so she deserves to be in that category.

- Varma



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by SaniaFan » Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:44 pm

Why Saurabh Chaudhary is not in first list? Has he missed out on medal in any of the events he participated in? At least I expect medal from him and Bajrang more than Sindhu.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:54 pm

I think consistency over at least a year is needed for someone to be put or particularly in the first part of the list which means almost a certain medal. Sindhu's form has been off for about 4 months now ( she did win the season ending championships in December) and Saurabh has been in top form for a little more than 6 months ( since Asiad). That is why Sindhu is in the top list and Saurabh in the second. If their form stays the way it is now after September-October, we can switch them in the lists is my opinion.



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