Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

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Sin Hombre
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Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:04 am

Would be disappointed if they do not medal

PV Sindhu (women's singles badminton)
Vinesh Phogat (women's 48-50kg wrestling)


Likely medal contenders but would like to see another world class performance first

Mirabai Chanu (48kg women's weightlifting)
Bajrang Punia (men's 65kg wrestling)
Saurabh Chaudhary (men's 10m air pistol, 10m mixed)


Will be in contention / reach finals

Neeraj Chopra (men's javelin)
Manu Bhaker (10m/25m women's air pistol or 10m mixed)
Anjum Moudgil (10m air rifle, 50m women's rifle 3 positions, 10m mixed)


On the upswing / could be a medal contender by 2020/24

Hima Das (women's 400m)
Jeremy Lalrinnunga (men's 67kg weightlifting)


Could win a medal with some luck

Saina Nehwal (women's singles badminton)
Amit Phangal (men's 46-49kg boxing)
Vikas Krishnan (men's 75kg boxing)
Tejaswini Sawant (50m women's rifle 3 positions)
Sanjeev Rajput (50m men's rifle 3 positions)
Rahi Sarnobat (25m women's air pistol)
One of Apurvi Chandela, Elavenil Valarivan or Mehuli Ghosh (10m women's air rifle)
Lakshay Sheoran (men's trap)
Abhishek Verma (men's 10m air pistol)
Anish Bhanwala (men's 25m rapid fire pistol)
Hriday Hazarika (men's 10m air rifle, mixed 10m)


Rational mind knows they are no-hopers but we will still hope

men's field hockey team
Kidambi Srikanth (men's singles badminton)
men's doubles tennis
mixed doubles table tennis
Sakshi Malik (women's 58kg wrestling)
Mary Kom (women's 51kg boxing)
Atanu Das & Deepika Kumari (recurve archers)



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:10 am

Some random thoughts while compiling this

Saurabh/Manu mixed pair should be a strong medal contender if the Olympics were to happen tomorrow. Given how young they are, I would be disappointed if they don't medal (though given our usual shenanigans, we might not even see them as a pairing).

Reiterating what sameer and ankit said before, but it is such a shame that Anjum got her quota from the 10m rifle route. Both because we can only get one more quota from 10m rifle (and we have at least 3 shooters who will shoot an olympic qualifying score) but we have none outside of older warhorse Tejaswini in the 50m 3 pos to get a quota there.

We desperately need Hriday or someone else to step up on the men's side in the 10m rifle. We will have 2 strong shooters on the women's side and would have an outside chance at a mixed medal.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:21 am

Deepak Kumar/Ravi Kumar are quite good in mens 10M air rifle. Deepak won an Asiad silver and finished 6th in world championships. So, he can step up to be a medal contender.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:36 am

Overall agree with the list. Feel that Amit Panghal ( based on his win against Olympic champion) should be in likely medal contenders or at least will need in contention.

Will be a tall order for Jeremy to be a medal contender by 2020, I think. Not checked the details but he will have to improve a lot, I guess in short time.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by jaydeep » Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:12 am

Yes, Jeremy needs to improve a lot ... I think, around 345+ kg will be the world standard in 2020.
So at least 70 kg improvement considering his YOG18 Gold medal lift, 276 kg.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by depleter » Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:27 pm

jaydeep wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:12 am
Yes, Jeremy needs to improve a lot ... I think, around 345+ kg will be the world standard in 2020.
So at least 70 kg improvement considering his YOG18 Gold medal lift, 276 kg.
The current world record itself is 333kg....why would he need 345....the bronze at Rio went at 305kg...but the world record holder Chinese faulted all his 3 attempts at that time......310+ might be the weight to go though



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by jaydeep » Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:47 pm

Hmm, I am considering his entry for 69 kg category considering at age of 16 yrs. he is participating in 62 kg. category. :)



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre » Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:05 am

He has said he will go up a weight class as he continues to grow in height.

That said, for comparison to the current elite, if we are using his YOG performances, we should look at the medalists in Rio at 62kg.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:51 am

Yes and as his strength grows, he can improve a lot particularly in clean and jerk. But, realistically we can expect him to be a medal contender for 2024 games. Hope Lakshya Sen will also be a medal contender by that time.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph » Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:31 pm

With Bajrang winning silver at world championships, he needs to be moved to first category (disappointed if they do not medal) and perhaps bring Vinesh down ( would like to see one more world class performance.

Also as I said bring Amit Panghal into second or third category.

Just my opinion.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by prasen9 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:13 pm

Everything is random. Some random guys will win. Some highly thought of guys will lose. And, Sindhu will always win silver. That is what will happen. You heard it here first!



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:59 am

@sameer feel free to update the original post and add some comment as post wrestling world championships.

@prasen randomness is a function of lack of quality and depth. Even this far out from the Olympics, I can confidently predict that Germany will win a medal in men's javelin in Tokyo.

That said, only 1/3rd of India's medals are somewhat random.

2016 - PVS was not too random despite her relatively low seeding. She went into the tournament as a back to back world championship medalist and someone who was a big game player. Sakshi Malik was a lot more random but happens when 20 athletes go to 4 medals. Qualification is half the battle with such small fields.

2012 - Outside of Vijay Kumar's silver and arguably Yogeshwar's bronze, every medal was kind of expected. Saina was clearly well ahead of the 5th best player in the world. Mary Kom was one of the 2 favourites for the gold. Sushil Kumar was the 2010 world champion (and a bronze medalist in 2008). Gagan Narang and Bindra were both considered clear medal contenders.

2008 - Sushil was the reigning Asian champion, Bindra was a strong medal contender. Vijender would have been in a slightly lower category.

Honestly, only wrestling and shooting can produce random medals for India. Every other medal will come from an expected category.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Atithee » Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:33 am

Sin Hombre wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:59 am
Honestly, only wrestling and shooting can produce random medals for India. Every other medal will come from an expected category.
This may be true, but can we predict with certainty that medals from other sports are certain? If we cannot, are they random then?



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by prasen9 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:29 am

Shooting and archery have a lot of randomness. Maybe someone has done some analysis somewhere of the randomness with respect to seeds, etc. by sport.

Like I said, the only thing certain in life is death, taxes, and Sindhu getting silver. Olympic Games: silver. 2018 WC: silver. 2017 WC: silver. 2017 SuperSeries Finals: silver. Commonwealth Games: silver. Asian Games: silver. So, heck, I tried to look up SAF Games. Yep, silver again. Maybe in the last 3-4 years, she has refused to do no less and no more whatever the venue may be.

@Sin Hombre, there is no doubt that it is not totally random. But, there is a large amount of randomness in any sport. Among close adversaries, even a 60% win record is considered significant.



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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by arjun2761 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:12 pm

Atithee wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:33 am
Sin Hombre wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:59 am
Honestly, only wrestling and shooting can produce random medals for India. Every other medal will come from an expected category.
This may be true, but can we predict with certainty that medals from other sports are certain? If we cannot, are they random then?
Not sure that this is a logical line of thinking. As an analogy, we cannot be certain that Djokovic will win the Australian Open but that does not make his winning a random event.

I think we are attempting to define a spectrum from likely to unlikely (of someone winning medals). On that spectrum, I won't be surprised if most of our medal winners will come from the more likely to win group. Of course, some sports have fewer data points to judge performance (for example, only one or two world level competitions per year) and therefore classifying someone as more likely to win in those sports is harder to do accurately.



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