Indian Shooting thread

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ankit1407
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Re: Indian Shooting thread

Post by ankit1407 » Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:52 pm

depleter wrote:
Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:08 pm
Compared to 2016 qualification, we have definitely improved. In rio qualification, by this time(after 2 world cups each of rifle/pistol and shotgun) we had 3 quotas - Apurvi Chandela in 10m air rifle, Jitu Rai in 50m pistol and Gagan Narang in 50m rifle prone. But 50m pistol and 50m rifle prone are removed from this edition. Even then Jitu would have won a 10m air pistol quota as he finished 3rd in the first pistol world cup.So, we only had 2 quotas then compared to 5 now with more quotas actually being distributed then when compared to now (like in 2014 world championships 10m airfle and pistol events had 6 quotas while 2018 WC only had 4, while the first 2 world cups had 3 quotas each then compared 2 quotas each now)
What do you think we might end up getting this time around vs 11 of last time.. I am happy that most of our guys have got quota this time in initial WCs where competition is tough and they also won medals ( most Golds) which augurs well for future ... However realistically we may still get
Men’s
1- 10m Rifle
1-50M 3P (long shot but I think we might get one in Asian championships later )
0-1 25m - Anish is high hope but the kid is bit of on and
off
0-1 - Kynen is shooting well so still hopeful specially during Asian championship where all Kuwaitis might already have quota won before
Women
1-2 this includes 10m and 25m pistol
I don’t think we have much of a chance in 50m women 3P specially with Anjum not eligible for one.. same for women trap and skeet ..

So I would say 8-11 is where we will end up this time too .. 11 will be pretty good given that number of events where Olympic quota on offer have gone down .. 8 will be slight disappointment but I guess not end of the world ..



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Re: Indian Shooting thread

Post by depleter » Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:06 pm

ankit1407 wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:52 pm
What do you think we might end up getting this time around vs 11 of last time.. I am happy that most of our guys have got quota this time in initial WCs where competition is tough and they also won medals ( most Golds) which augurs well for future ... However realistically we may still get
Men’s
1- 10m Rifle
1-50M 3P (long shot but I think we might get one in Asian championships later )
0-1 25m - Anish is high hope but the kid is bit of on and
off
0-1 - Kynen is shooting well so still hopeful specially during Asian championship where all Kuwaitis might already have quota won before
Women
1-2 this includes 10m and 25m pistol
I don’t think we have much of a chance in 50m women 3P specially with Anjum not eligible for one.. same for women trap and skeet ..

So I would say 8-11 is where we will end up this time too .. 11 will be pretty good given that number of events where Olympic quota on offer have gone down .. 8 will be slight disappointment but I guess not end of the world ..
We will easily get many quotas in asian champioships atleast as the quotas in asian championships are increased when compared to last 2016 cycle. We used to have 2 quotas each in 2016 cycle while we have 3 for almost all now and for 25m pistol we even have 4 quotas. The quotas decreased in World Championships and world cups are added to regional championships this time. The main plus point is China has already got most of it's quotas already as always.

10m air rifle - 1 - we will most likely get this one.

50m 3p men -It's so tough this one. All the best shooters we have here are so volatile....
If you see the qualification scores this year - (first WC ( elimination/qualification) and then selection trail scores)
Sanjeev Rajput - 1173/1169, 1171/1145, 1172, 1172, NM, NM
Chain Singh - 1145/- , 1169/1165, 1175, 1162, 1168, 1176
Parul kumar - 1149/1170, 1168/1164, 1178, 1169, 1164, 1174

Here only the Chinese have got the quota from asia till now so we still have Korea(2), Iran(2), Japan (1) to compete for the 3 quotas
with us if they fail to get too.
So,It can be 0-2 but may be we should go with 1.
25m rapid pistol - I think we will get at least 1 here to a max 2(as our shooters are clocking a higher QF average than most asian shooters) i.e, 1-2

Trap men - Expecting 1 from here
Skeet - low to no chance as always unless someone like Mairaj has a burst of form like before rio.

50m 3p women - really hard so may be 0

10m air pistol/25m pistol - expecting 2- 3 quotas from here actually. Rahi and heena have a high chance to get that quota from asian championships I think. As 4 athletes from asia have already taken a quota in 10m,so It's a bit easier in asian championships.

So, may be 11 might be the minimum we must do this time too. Lets say if we miss 1 somewhere so make it 10 but anything below 10 will be a big disappointment tbf.



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Re: Indian Shooting thread

Post by ankit1407 » Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:22 pm

Thanks , did not knew quota allocations have increased in regional championships. Does offer a good chance to get to 10 or more in that case ..



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Re: Indian Shooting thread

Post by Sin Hombre » Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:47 am

The most unfortunate thing is we have no chance of fielding 2 teams in the mixed team event. That is the easiest route to a medal.

China will likely field 2 teams in both events.



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Re: Indian Shooting thread

Post by sameerph » Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:05 am

Sin Hombre wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:47 am
The most unfortunate thing is we have no chance of fielding 2 teams in the mixed team event. That is the easiest route to a medal.
China will likely field 2 teams in both events.
Why not ? It is likely that we get second mens Air file quota somewhere along the way and then, we will have 2 teams in air rifle mixed team. And if Manu and Heena qualify ( which is not out of questions), we can have 2 teams in air pistol too.

I would think we should get following additional quotas -

10M air rifle - Deepak/Ravi- if not at next 2 world cups, they should get it at the Asian championship.

Mens-Womens 3P- Hope we get at least 1 from here. The only chance here appears to be the Asian championships. Sanjeev Rajput looks the most likely contender but Gayatri is also not out of question. She has been posting decent scores in qualifying which will be good to go to final at Asians and then anything can happen.

Womens pistol- Decent chance that Manu/Heena/Rahi can all get a quota.

Trap men- 1 quota

mens rapid fire pistol -1

So, that would make it 12 quotas and also a couple more as doubles starters ( Manu and Anjum). We can also have 4 mixed teams in that case which will take our total eateries to 18, much higher than last time. (14).



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Re: Indian Shooting thread

Post by srini » Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:49 am

Let's not worry about total number of quotas folks. I used to do the same mistake in last 3 editions of Olympics. Let's only worry about how many quality quota we obtained in the initial phase of world cups. Rest of the quota is just for the sake of participation in the Olympic spirit, and rest assured we can write off any quotas obtained from Asian Championships...no chance of any medals from such quota, those who obtain quota from that championship shoot waaaaay below par the world standards and do not even make it to the medal round (finals) forget about expecting any medals.Do not count on any randomness or sudden spurt in form...never happened before,and will never in future.You are welcome to give any counter example :p You can count a little on the randomness in archery...wind speed, altitude etc etc. We are talking shooting here, there may be a little randomness but that gets limited to winning or not winning a medal in the finals, but not making it to the finals.



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Re: Indian Shooting thread

Post by sameerph » Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:17 pm

srini wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:49 am
Let's not worry about total number of quotas folks. I used to do the same mistake in last 3 editions of Olympics. Let's only worry about how many quality quota we obtained in the initial phase of world cups. Rest of the quota is just for the sake of participation in the Olympic spirit, and rest assured we can write off any quotas obtained from Asian Championships...no chance of any medals from such quota, those who obtain quota from that championship shoot waaaaay below par the world standards and do not even make it to the medal round (finals) forget about expecting any medals.Do not count on any randomness or sudden spurt in form...never happened before,and will never in future.You are welcome to give any counter example :p You can count a little on the randomness in archery...wind speed, altitude etc etc. We are talking shooting here, there may be a little randomness but that gets limited to winning or not winning a medal in the finals, but not making it to the finals.
I tried to do some research on this based on last Asian qualifying tournament for Rio. There were 3 medalists from those who qualfied thru Asian qualifying- 2 from Qatar- gold medalist in doubles trap and bronze medalist in skeet and also Korean Kim Jong-hyun who qualified there got a silver in 50M rifle prone. So, 3 out of 35 i.e about 8% did get medals and 2 more reached the final. So, about 14% got to the final.

Of course, 4 Indians qualified thru that route and none of them came even close to finals. So, it is rare but not that it never happened.

I have not studied the past performance of these 3 who did win medals at Rio but what I feel is that they may have narrowly missed qualifying at world cups. So, I would say if we get a quota for mens/womens 3P or skeet, it is almost impossible for those to go on and get a medal at Tokyo. But, if someone like Manu Bhaker who has been performing decently at world cups and manages to get a quota only at Asian qualifying, it may be possible that she may get a spurt and win a medal at Tokyo.

Rare but possible. So, get as many quotas as possible just to have that 6-8% chance that someone among those will end up with a medal. :D



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Re: Indian Shooting thread

Post by SaniaFan » Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:35 pm

Not only that. If Manu qualifies even through Asian championship, we'll have great chance in mixed team event.



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Re: Indian Shooting thread

Post by prasen9 » Wed May 01, 2019 12:15 am

Which begs the question. What % of those who qualify first get medals and what % of those who qualify in the second tournament, etc. If the number of tournaments we can divide them up into first lot, second lot and so on. If the number of events is too many, we can choose one or a few. Anybody has the time to do this? If not, anyone has pointers to where the data is?



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Re: Indian Shooting thread

Post by Sin Hombre » Wed May 01, 2019 3:00 am

sameerph wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:05 am
Sin Hombre wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:47 am
The most unfortunate thing is we have no chance of fielding 2 teams in the mixed team event. That is the easiest route to a medal.
China will likely field 2 teams in both events.
Why not ? It is likely that we get second mens Air file quota somewhere along the way and then, we will have 2 teams in air rifle mixed team. And if Manu and Heena qualify ( which is not out of questions), we can have 2 teams in air pistol too.
I remembered reading as such (that NOCs would only be allowed one mixed team unless they had won a mixed team quota as well) when the mixed team quotas were handed out last year, but don't see it here

https://www.issf-sports.org/getfile.asp ... g.ver).pdf


All this says is every participant needs to have MQS in that event.



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Re: Indian Shooting thread

Post by depleter » Wed May 01, 2019 4:19 am

Sin Hombre wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 3:00 am


I remembered reading as such (that NOCs would only be allowed one mixed team unless they had won a mixed team quota as well) when the mixed team quotas were handed out last year, but don't see it here

https://www.issf-sports.org/getfile.asp ... g.ver).pdf


All this says is every participant needs to have MQS in that event.
They were only giving away 2 quotas of mixed team in each event so that is for sure not true. They can't have an event with only 2 pairs....... :-)



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Re: Indian Shooting thread

Post by Sin Hombre » Thu May 02, 2019 2:14 am

depleter wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 4:19 am
Sin Hombre wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 3:00 am


I remembered reading as such (that NOCs would only be allowed one mixed team unless they had won a mixed team quota as well) when the mixed team quotas were handed out last year, but don't see it here

https://www.issf-sports.org/getfile.asp ... g.ver).pdf


All this says is every participant needs to have MQS in that event.
They were only giving away 2 quotas of mixed team in each event so that is for sure not true. They can't have an event with only 2 pairs....... :-)
I think you misunderstood me.

I recall reading those 2 quotas were the only way for a NOC to get a second spot in the mixed team event, otherwise they could only field one team.



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Re: Indian Shooting thread

Post by depleter » Thu May 02, 2019 3:51 am

Sin Hombre wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 2:14 am
think you misunderstood me.

I recall reading those 2 quotas were the only way for a NOC to get a second spot in the mixed team event, otherwise they could only field one team.
Oh! Sorry!!!
But that mixed team quota is mainly useful for exchange of quota. Like they have extra quota there where they can exchange it for any other person who failed to qualify.



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Re: Indian Shooting thread

Post by depleter » Thu May 02, 2019 10:25 am

After her current form Apurvi Chandela is the new world no 1 in 10m air rifle.



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Re: Indian Shooting thread

Post by srini » Fri May 03, 2019 2:32 am

sameerph wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:17 pm


I tried to do some research on this based on last Asian qualifying tournament for Rio. There were 3 medalists from those who qualfied thru Asian qualifying- 2 from Qatar- gold medalist in doubles trap and bronze medalist in skeet and also Korean Kim Jong-hyun who qualified there got a silver in 50M rifle prone. So, 3 out of 35 i.e about 8% did get medals and 2 more reached the final. So, about 14% got to the final.

Of course, 4 Indians qualified thru that route and none of them came even close to finals. So, it is rare but not that it never happened.

I have not studied the past performance of these 3 who did win medals at Rio but what I feel is that they may have narrowly missed qualifying at world cups. So, I would say if we get a quota for mens/womens 3P or skeet, it is almost impossible for those to go on and get a medal at Tokyo. But, if someone like Manu Bhaker who has been performing decently at world cups and manages to get a quota only at Asian qualifying, it may be possible that she may get a spurt and win a medal at Tokyo.

Rare but possible. So, get as many quotas as possible just to have that 6-8% chance that someone among those will end up with a medal. :D
My apologies for not having the patience to do the research myself and instead push the onus of research on others by asking to provide counter example. Thanks Sameer for taking up that dreary job and providing us with good data.

Having said that I tried to research more on those athletes and both the shooters were not from qatar but from Kuwait and participated under independent Olympic athletes banner as kuwait olympic committee was facing olympic ban for government interference in denying visa to an Israeli official for asian shooting championship event in doha which later was rescheduled to be held in Delhi. One of the shooter Al- Deehani was a world class shooter who already had 2 bronze from 2000, 2012 Olympics before bettering it with Gold in 2016. He seemed the equivalent of badminton’s “Lan Dan” in shooting who could choose his timing of when to peak. The other shooter in skeet also had 3 world championship medals. Not sure how much their preparations were affected in qualification tournaments due to their olympics committee mess but that seemed around October 2015 which is late in qualification cycle but they only got qualified in the last leg of tournaments.

But point remains there does seem some possibility of medals from Continental championship also provided the athletes are seasoned professionals who had already seen it all



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