Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

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Re: Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

Post by jayakris »

September 18 Summary: +92,969 to 5,305,656 at a daily growth rate of 1.784% (Doubling: 39.2 days)
Deaths: +1,221 to 85,625... not great... but Overall death rate drops to 1.61%
Recoveries: +95,512 to 4,205,340... Overall recovery ratio: 79.3%

Bad Areas:
+3824 (5.1%) to 79320 in 26/28 dists; Raipur(672)/Durg(436)/Janj-Cham(334)/Rajnand.(309)/Bilas.(302) etc., CHG
+3581 (3.8%) to 98734 in 9/35 dists; Nagpur(2106)/Chand(258)/Gond/Bhan(310)/Gad/War/Amrav(371)/Yav(265)/Was, MAH
+2822 (3.8%) to 77986 in 8/14 dists; Th'puram(926)/Koll(355)/Alap(367)/Kott/Iduk/Erna(348)/Thri(326)/Palak,KER
+2014 (3.6%) to 58287 in 2/35 dists; Sangli(1112)/Satara(902), MAH
+1779 (4.0%) to 46578 in 10/22 dists; Ludh(464)/Fateh./SASN(417)/Rup./Hos./Kapur./Amrit(311)/TTaran/Fer/Faz,PUN
+1763 (3.3%) to 55367 in 13/30 dists; Cuttack(492)/Jag/Kendra/Jaj/Ang/Samb/Jhar/Sund/Sub/Bou/Kala/Nua/Naba, ODI
+1589 (3.2%) to 51867 in 3/75 dists; Lucknow(1255)/Hardoi/LakhimpurKheri(229), UP
+1290 (3.0%) to 43849 in 2/35 dists; Ahmednagar(995)/Osmanabad(295), MAH
+1219 (4.0%) to 31251 in 26/52 dists; OUTSIDE Indore/Bhopal/Ujjain, including Jabalpur(200), MP
+802 (4.1%) to 20461 in 3/14 dists; Kozhikode(404)/Wayanad/Kannur(330), KER
+759 (3.3%) to 23797 in 5/22 dists; Yamunanagar/Kurukshetra/Kaithal/Jind/Hisar/Rohtak/Cha-Dadri/Mahendragarh,HAR
+532 (3.5%) to 15860 in 2/24 dists; Ranchi(492)/Lohardaga, JH

As always, Maharashtra (6885 bad-growth cases) leads, with Chhattisgarh (3824) and Kerala (3624) behind, as usual. kerala and Chattisgarh seem to be increasing the testing a bit, which is nice. Though Karnataka is testing very poorly, only Udupi district with 493 cases (3.4%) was of concern today, and they stayed out of the bad list.

No other contiguous areas in the states had a growth rate more than 50% above our national average today (1.783*1.50 = 2.675%) and 500+ new cases... The bad areas together had +21,974 cases to take their total to 603,357 cases at a bad area growth rate of 3.78%... The rest of the country had +70,995 cases to take their total to 4,702,299 at a good area growth rate of 1.53%. Today's good areas are where 90.2% of our current cases are.

Our seven-day average daily additions hit a peak a couple of days ago and has dropped today, though it could be a temporary thing (hope not; so let's keep our fingers crossed). The seven-day average curve was basically flat yesterday from the day before. 92943, 93274, 93277, 92604 are the 7-day averages for the latest four days. The active case total also dropped today by about 2500 to around 1014K.


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Re: Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

Post by jayakris »

September 19 Updates:
+290 CHD, +286 HP, +245 ARP, +117 MNP, +112 MEG, +73 LDK, +39 SKM, +35 NAG, +28 DNHDD, +14 MIZ, +13 ANI

+543 in PUD... +535 in TPR
+2123 in TEL from 54459 tests @ 3.9%
+4209 in ODI from 48075 tests @ 8.8%
+5729 in UP from 154284 tests @ 3.7% (84 deaths)
+1616 in BIH from 124332 tests @ 1.3%
+4644 in KER from 47452 tests @ 9.8% :damn:
+5569 in TN from 85117 tests @ 6.5% (66 deaths)
+1492 in J&K from 23952 tests @ 6.2%
+8218 in AP from 74595 tests @ 11.0% (58 deaths)
+1432 in GUJ from 61432 tests @ 2.3%
+8364 in KAR from 63784 tests @ 13.1% (114 deaths)
+2607 in MP from 19209 tests @ 13.5% :damn: (42 deaths)
+1834 in RAJ from 30783 tests @ 6.0%
+3188 in WB from 45563 tests @ 7.0% (56 deaths)
+2078 in UK from 16453 tests @ 12.7%
+2723 in PUN from 28381 tests @ 9.6% (51 deaths)
+643 in Goa from 2113 tests @ 30.4% :damn:
[21907 in MAH from 92802 tests @ 23.6% (425 deaths)]
+20519 in MAH (1388 removed, on "reconciliation")
+2691 in HAR from 28599 tests @ 9.4%
+4071 in DEL from 61973 tests @ 6.6%
+1282 in JH from 41753 tests @ 3.1%
+2595 in ASM from 35175 tests @ 7.4%
+2617 in CHG from 13685 tests @ 19.1% :damn:

+92,574 and that is a final. A drop of about 400 from yesterday (It is actually a small increase of about 1000 but Maharashtra dropped a 1388 from their earlier cumulative total)


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Re: Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

Post by jayakris »

September 19 Summary: +92,574 to 5,398,220 at a daily growth rate of 1.745% (Doubling: 40.1 days)
Deaths: +1,149 to 86,774... Not our worst day... Overall death rate: 1.61%
Recoveries: +94,384 to 4,299,724 ... More than new cases, again. Overall ratio: 79.7%

[+93,962 cases were actually found today, when we remove the minus-1388 adjustment in MAH. So the bad-area analysis is done using that total, which represents a 1.771% daily growth]

Bad Areas:
+4406 (3.8%) to 120145 in 12/14 dists; T'puram(824)/Mal(534)/Kozh(412)/Kol(436)/Ern(351) etc, NOT Kas./Idu., KER
+3797 (3.6%) to 109461 in 8/35 dists; Nag(1985)/Gond./Bhand./War./Yavat.(343)/Nanded(408)/Amra.(300)/Akola, MAH
+2060 (3.5%) to 60610 in 14/30 dists; Cutt(491)/Puri(326)/Jag/Kendr/Jaj/Ang/Sam/Jha/Deo/Sub/Bou/Kal/Kand/Nab,ODI
+2033 (5.6%) to 38379 in 10/13 dists; DDun(668)/Hari(289)/U.Kashi/P&T.Gar/Chamo/Alm/Nai(231)/USN(397)/Pitho, UK
+1750 (3.8%) to 47466 in 7/28 dists; Raipur(780)/Durg(323)/Rajnandgaon/Balod/Dhamtari/Gariaband/Mahasamund, CHG
+1307 (3.5%) to 38176 in 2/35 dists; Sangli(977)/Ratnagiri(330), MAH
+1161 (3.9%) to 30688 in 7/22 dists; Amrit(316)/Gurdas/Pathan/Hoshiar/SBhagat.S.N/Rupnagar/S.A.S.Nagar(285), PUN
+1131 (4.3%) to 27368 in 23/52 dists; OUTSIDE Indore/Bhopal/Ujjain/Gwalior, including Jabalpur(242), MP
+812 (4.2%) to 20351 in 9/20 dists; Jammu(261)/Rajouri/Poonch/Reasi/Ramban/Doda/Kishtwar/Kathua/Samba, J&K
+680 (3.9%) to 18177 in 7/22 dists; Rohtak(141)/Jind/Kaithal/Hisar(151)/Fatehabad/Sirsa, HAR
+528 (3.3%) to 16675 in 4/37 dists; Erode(166)/Tiruppur(163)/Nilgiris/Dharmapuri, TN

Again, Maharashtra (5104 bad-growth cases) leads, with Kerala (4406) just behind. Nearly the whole length of Kerala except the northern-most district of Kasaragod and the hill district of Idukki forms the worst bad area in India today. I never thought the day would come when a Kerala cluster would be the largest in India. Oh well.

No other contiguous areas in the states had a growth rate more than 50% above our national average today (1.771*1.50 = 2.657%) and 500+ new cases... The bad areas together had +19,665 cases to take their total to 527,496 cases at a bad area growth rate of 3.88%... The rest of the country had +74,297 cases to take their total to 4,870,724 at a good area growth rate of 1.55%. Today's good areas are where 90.2% of our current cases are.

Anyway, we have got another day of drop for the 7-day average of daily additions, as it dipped to 92,345 today. Will it last? I doubt it. Need to see better testing in MP and CHG to say anything definitively. Kerala needs to calm down too.


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Re: Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

Post by jayakris »

September 20 Updates:
+276 CHD, +221 HP, +170 MNP, +135 ARP, +101 MEG, +59 NAG,
+49 SKM, +45 LDK, +34 DNHDD, +30 MIZ, +7 ANI


+525 in TPR... +467 in PUD
+2137 in TEL from 53811 tests @ 4.0%
+4330 in ODI from 51154 tests @ 8.5%
+5758 in UP from 140754 tests @ 4.1% (94 deaths)
+1555 in BIH from 176511 tests @ 0.9%. Wow :notworthy: :notworthy:
+4696 in KER from 41630 tests @ 11.3% :damn: :damn:
+5516 in TN from 86073 tests @ 6.4% :) (60 deaths)
+1407 in GUJ from 60.7K tests @ 2.3%
+7738 in AP from 70455 tests @ 11.0% (57 deaths)
+1865 in RAJ from 30456 tests @ 6.1%
+1457 in J&K from 27027 tests @ 8.0%
+407 in Goa from 1411 tests @ 28.8%
+8191 in KAR from 60477 tests @ 12.8% (101 deaths)
+878 in UK from 10970 tests @ 8.0%
+2160 in PUN from 26720 tests @ 8.1% (56 deaths)
+20627 in MAH from 86094 tests @ 23.5% (455 deaths)
+3812 in DEL from 52405 tests @ 7.3%
+2305 in HAR from 29802 tests @ 7.7%
+2579 in MP from 20583 tests @ 12.6% :damn:
+3177 in WB from 45656 tests @ 7.0% (61 deaths)
+1227 in ASM from 19318 tests @ 6.4% (Sunday tests)
+1492 in JH from 81169 tests @ 1.8%... wow. :notworthy:
+1949 in CHG from 11246 tests @ 17.3% :damn: (Sunday tests)

87,382 and that should be a final.


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Re: Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

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September 20 Summary: +87,382 to 5,485,602 at a daily growth rate of 1.619% (Doubling: 43.2 days)
Deaths: +1,135 to 87,909... Staying below the peak number. Overall death rate: 1.60%
Recoveries: +92,926 to 4,392,650... More than new cases again. Overall recovery ratio: 80.0%

Bad Areas:
+4477 (3.7%) to 125824 in 13/14 dists; T'puram(892)/Ern-Kochi(537)/Kozhi(536)/Malap(483)/Kol(330) etc; not Alappuzha, KER
+3919 (3.5%) to 117460 in 11/35 dists; Nagpur(2147)/Bhand/Gond/Gad/Chand/War/Yav/Nanded(335)/Hing/Wash/Buld, MAH
+1941 (3.9%) to 51108 in 12/30 dists; Cuttack(549)/Puri(292)/Jag/Kendr/Ang/Kendh/Deog/Bou/Kand/Kala/Naba/Nua,ODI
+1615 (2.7%) to 61628 in 2/35 dists; Sangli(845)/Satara(770), MAH
+1420 (3.4%) to 43618 in 7/28 dists; Raipur(812)/Durg(257)/Mahasamund/Bametara/Balod/Dhamtari/U.BastarKanker,CHG
+1196 (4.1%) to 30146 in 23/52 dists; OUTSIDE Indore/Bhopal/Ujjain/Gwalior, including Jabalpur(243), MP
+889 (2.6%) to 35676 in 1/35 dists; Ahmednagar, MAH
+889 (3.5%) to 26007 in 10/20 dists; Jammu(266)/Raj/Punch/Baramulla/Udhampur/Ramban/Doda/Kisht/Kathua/Samba,J&K
+832 (3.4%) to 25119 in 6/37 dists; Tiruppur(169)/Erode(145)/Namakkal/Nilgiris/Krishnagiri/Dharmapuri, TN
+555 (3.6%) to 15791 in 4/13 dists; Dehradun(408)/Uttarkashi/TehriGarhwal/PauriGarhwal, UK

No other contiguous areas in the states had a growth rate more than 50% above our national average today (1.619*1.50 = 2.428%) and 500+ new cases... The bad areas together had +17,773 cases to take their total to 532,377 cases at a bad area growth rate of 3.45%... The rest of the country had +69,590 cases to take their total to 4,953,225 at a good area growth rate of 1.43%. Today's good areas are where 90.3% of our current cases are.

As always, Maharashtra (6423 bad-growth cases) leads, with Kerala (4477) behind. Nobody else is even close. The whole state of Kerala (except my home district, Alappuzha) forms the worst bad area in India today. In addition to the above, Punjab has some 10/22 districts that are bad with some 1100 cases but in 4 areas of no more than 350 cases. Curiously, a similar thing in neighboring Haryana too, with 8/22 bad districts and about 1100 cases in 3 areas but none more than 450 cases. Maybe the bad areas are shrinking to smaller clusters there? Let us hope so. UP had some 12/75 districts as usual but no cluster more than 300 or so. Karnataka had only 1 bad district (Koppal) and AP had none. AP numbers are falling noticeably.

As I look through almost all districts in India, it is great to see how many of them have just gone down in their numbers. And we got one more day of drop in our 7-day average of daily additions which has just gone 91780, 92765, 92943, 93274, 93277, 92608, 92345, 91512 during the last 8 days.


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Re: Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

Post by jayakris »

September 21 Updates:
+216 CHD, +210 ARP, +116 MNP, +93 NAG, +79 LDK,
+73 MEG, +56 SKM, +22 ANI, +9 DNHDD, +7 MIZ


+243 in TPR... +268 in PUD
+1302 in TEL from 31095 tests @ 4.2%
+4242 in ODI from 47758 tests @ 8.9%
+4618 in UP from 135990 tests @ 3.4% (88 deaths)
+1314 in BIH from 173603 tests @ 0.8%
+6235 in AP from 56569 tests @ 11.2% (51 deaths)
+2910 in KER from 25848 tests @ 11.2% :damn:
+5344 in TN from 80672 tests @ 6.6% (60 deaths)
+7339 in KAR from 42691 tests @ 17.2% :damn: (122 deaths)
+1892 in RAJ... +1036 in J&K... +814 in UK
+2548 in DEL from 33733 tests @ 7.6%
+2523 in MP from 21783 tests @ 11.6%
+1430 in GUJ from 61897 tests @ 2.3%
+3165 in WB from 43313 tests @ 7.3% (62 deaths)
+2241 in PUN from 20021 tests @ 11.2% (47 deaths)
+324 in Goa from 1145 tests @ 28.3%
+15738 in MAH from 40017 tests @ 39.3% :damn: :damn: (344 deaths)
+1818 in HAR from 25667 tests @ 7.1%
+2640 in ASM from 35603 tests @ 7.4%
+309 in HP from 1851 tests @ 16.7%
+1321 in JH from 43691 tests @ 3.0% :notworthy:
+1998 in CHG from 12602 tests @ 15.9% :damn:

+74,493, and that should be a final.


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Re: Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

Post by jayakris »

September 21 Summary: +74,493 to 5,560,105 at a daily growth rate of 1.358% (Doubling: 51.4 days)
Deaths: +1,056 to 88,965... Certainly not our worst day. Overall death rate: 1.60%
Recoveries: +1,02,070 to 4,494,720... A terrific day... Overall recovery ratio: 80.8%

We will skip the bad area analysis as usual on a Monday, since many states report low Sunday test counts and some report a lot of Monday AG tests too, so district growth rates are not comparable.

Some very hopeful items to note:
We had 102K discharges, today. So the active case total dropped drastically by 28,649 cases today. ..
The seven-day average of daily new cases dipped for one more day from +91,512 to +90,451
No rise in the average for 5 days, and it has dropped for the last 4 days with increasing rate...
The 3-day average test positivity has continuously dropped from 8.35 to 7.66 over the last 10 days...
The total deaths were 1056 today, well below our peak numbers in the 1200+ range, and about the same as on last Monday...


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Re: Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

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September 22 Updates:
+331 HP, +270 MNP, +249 ARP, +248 CHD, +106 MIZ, +66 SKM,
+60 NAG, +58 MEG, +55 LDK, +18 ANI, +10 DNHDD,


+559 in TPR... +493 in PUD
+2166 in TEL from 53690 tests @ 4.0%
+4189 in ODI from 45676 tests @ 9.2% :damn:
+5650 in UP from 150085 tests @ 3.8% (77 deaths)
+1609 in BIH from 194088 tests @ 0.8% :notworthy:
+7553 in AP from 68829 tests @ 11.0% (51 deaths)
+1235 in J&K from 21045 tests @ 5.9%
+4125 in KER from 38574 tests @ 10.7% :damn:
+5337 in TN from 84730 tests @ 6.3% (76 deaths)
+1402 in GUJ from 62097 tests @ 2.3%
+1411 in PUN from 28687 tests @ 4.9% (66 deaths)
+1795 in HAR from 23019 tests @ 7.8%
+3816 in DEL from 59,013 tests @ 6.5%
+2544 in MP from 17698 tests @ 14.4% :damn:
+3182 in WB from 45447 tests @ 7.0% (62 deaths)
+590 in Goa from 1863 tests @ 31.7% :damn:
+874 in UK from 11030 tests @ 7.9%
+18390 in MAH from 105026 tests @ 17.6% (392 deaths)
+1912 in RAJ from 33786 tests @ 5.7%
+6974 in KAR from 55707 tests @ 12.5% (83 deaths)
+2073 in ASM from 29647 tests @ 7.0%
+1275 in JH from 55276 tests @ 2.3% :notworthy:
+2736 in CHG from 16149 tests @ 16.9% :damn:

+83,361, and that is a final. Some 6 tor 7K lower than the totals the last two Tuesdays!


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Re: Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

Post by jayakris »

September 22 Summary: +83,361 to 5,643,481 at a daily growth rate of 1.499% (Doubling: 46.6 days)
Deaths: +1,085 to 90,050... No serious rise; effectively it is a drop. Overall death rate: 1.60%
Recoveries: +89,653 to 4,584,392... Active cases reduce again. Overall recovery ratio: 81.2%

Bad Areas:
+3694 (3.2%) to 120450 in 11/35 dists; Nagpur(1628)/Bhand/Gond/Gad/Chand/War/Yav/Hing/Wash/Akola/Amrav(459), MAH
+3574 (3.2%) to 114905 in 10/14 dists; Thir(681)/Kol/Path/Ala(403)/Ern(406)/Thr/Pal/Mal(444)/Way/Kozhi(394), KER
+3540 (2.8%) to 129944 in 21/30 dists; Khorda(712)/Cuttack(586)/Puri(265)/Sundargarh(201)/Mayurbhanj(174)etc ODI
+2240 (4.0%) to 58039 in 12/28 dists; Raipur(958)/Durg(418)/B-Baz/Mun/Mah/Raig/Surg/Jash/Sura/Balo/Dham/UBK, CHG
+2177 (2.7%) to 81951 in 4/35 dists; Kolhapur(1130)/Sindhudurg(87)/Ratnagiri(204)/Satara(756), MAH
+1101 (3.7%) to 31086 in 24/52 dists; OUTSIDE Indore/Bhopal/Ujjain/Gwalior, including Jabalpur(249), MP
+789 (3.6%) to 22447 in 5/37 dists; Tiruppur(369)/Erode(136)/Nilgiris/Krishnagiri/Dharmapuri, TN
+721 (3.2%) to 23421 in 9/20 dists; Jammu(253)/Raj/Punch/Udhampur/Ramban/Doda/Kisht/Kathua/Samba,J&K
+522 (3.1%) to 17102 in 6/13 dists; Dehradun(368)/Uttarkashi/PauriGarhwal/Almora/Chamoli/Bageshwar, UK

No other contiguous areas in the states had a growth rate more than 50% above our national average today (1.499*1.50 = 2.249%) and 500+ new cases... The bad areas together had +18,358 cases to take their total to 599,345 cases at a bad area growth rate of 3.16%... The rest of the country had +65,003 cases to take their total to 5,044,136 at a good area growth rate of 1.31%. Today's good areas are where 89.4% of our current cases are.

No doubt, Maharashtra (5871 bad-growth cases) leads, with Kerala (3574) and Odisha (3540) behind. In fact, it is basically only in states not testing well now (sad to see Kerala in that group) where the bad growth is happening. 90% of the country is growing at just about 1.3% growth rate and that rate is uniformly dropping all around. UP had only 4 districts out of 75 with growth above 2%. Bihar had one. Karnataka had none. Jhakhand had 3. Punjab and Haryana had 4 and 3 districts each with growth above 2.25%. Maybe another 5 or 6 districts elsewhere, and that is about it. Everywhere else the numbers are not growing at any serious rate at all.


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Re: Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

Post by jayakris »

September 23 updates:
+289 ARP, +280 HP, +180 CHD, +170 MEG, +96 MNP, +67 NAG,
+46 LDK, +35 SKM, +22 MIZ, +21 ANI, +18 DNHDD


+504 in TPR... +543 in PUD
+2296 in TEL from 55892 tests @ 4.1%
+4237 in ODI from 45321 tests @ 9.4% :damn:
+5143 in UP from 165565 tests @ 3.1% (87 deaths)
+1598 in BIH from 175585 tests @ 0.9%
+7228 in AP from 72838 tests @ 9.9% (45 deaths)
+5376 in KER from 51200 tests @ 10.5%
+5325 in TN from 84979 tests @ 6.3% (63 deaths)
+1946 in RAJ from 31698 tests @ 6.1%
+1249 in J&K from 28156 tests @ 4.4%
+1069 in UK from 11084 tests @ 9.6%
+21029 in MAH from 89503 tests @ 23.5% (479 deaths)
+2123 in PUN from 26687 tests @ 8.0% (64 deaths)
+1372 in GUJ from 61907 tests @ 2.3%
+1986 in HAR from 28002 tests @ 7.1%
+3189 in WB from 45229 tests @ 7.1% (61 deaths)
+6997 in KAR from 56398 tests @ 12.4% (38 deaths)
+536 in Goa from 1872 tests @ 28.6%
+3714 in DEL from 59579 tests @ 6.2%
+1141 in JH from 44147 tests @ 2.6%
+2346 in MP from 23080 tests @ 10.2%
+2098 in ASM from 29896 tests @ 7.0%
+2434 in CHG from 24373 tests @ 10.0%

+86,703, which should be the final!


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Re: Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

Post by jayakris »

September 23 Summary: +86,703 to 5,730,184 at a daily growth rate of 1.536% (Doubling: 45.5 days)
Deaths: +1,123 to 91,173... More than we wanted to see, but flat numbers... Overall death rate: 1.59%
Recoveries: +87,458 to 4,671,850... Another drop in active cases... Overall recovery ratio: 81.5%

Bad Areas:
+5102 (4.0%) to 133546 in 11/14 dists; Thir(852)/Kol(503)/Pat/Ala(501)/Kot/Ern(624)/Thr/Pal/Mal(512)/Koz(504)/Kan, KER
+3836 (3.4%) to 115129 in 9/35 dists; Nagpur(1884)/Bhand/Gond/Gad/Chand(361)/War/Yav(350)/Wash/Amrav(422), MAH
+3323 (2.6%) to 131885 in 4/35 dists; Nashik(1830)/Ahmednagar(846)/Osmanabad(286)/Latur(361), MAH
+1921 (3.2%) to 61758 in 11/30 dists; Cutt.(577)/Puri(219)/Jaj.(201)/Jag/Kendra/Bhad/Balas/Ang/Deo/Bou/Suba, ODI
+1605 (2.9%) to 56888 in 12/28 dists; Raipur(748)/Durg(292)/Rajnand(162)/Maha/Balod/Dham/Kabeer/Mung/Garia/Bamet, CHG
+986 (2.8%) to 35873 in 7/22 dists; Jalandhar(279)/Kapur./S.Bhagat.S.N/Hoshiar./Gurdas./Amritsar(229)/TarnTaran, PUN
+719 (3.3%) to 22164 in 14/52 dists; East of Indore/Bhopal/Ujjain/Gwalior, including Jabalpur(249), MP
+567 (2.7%) to 21959 in 2/30 dists; Hassan(315)/Chikkamagaluru(252), KAR
+520 (3.2%) to 17018 in 6/13 dists; Dehradun(318)/Uttarkashi/Rudraprayag/PauriGarhwal/Chamoli/Bageshwar, UK

Like a broken record, Maharashtra (7159 bad-growth cases) leads, with Kerala (5102) and Odisha (1921) behind.

No other contiguous areas in the states had a growth rate more than 50% above our national average today (1.536*1.50 = 2.305%) and 500+ new cases... The bad areas together had +18,579 cases to take their total to 596,220 cases at a bad area growth rate of 3.21%... The rest of the country had +68,124 cases to take their total to 5,133,964 at a good area growth rate of 1.34%. Today's good areas are where 89.6% of our current cases are.

One more day of drop in active cases... The 7-day average dipped again for the 7th day in a row, to 87,755. Good.


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Re: Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

Post by jayakris »

September 24 Updates:
+451 TPR, +337 HP, +283 ARP, +242 CHD, +161 MNP, +122 MEG,
+64 SKM, +59 NAG, +46 MIZ, +36 LDK, +32 ANI, +13 DNHDD


+668 in PUD from 5945 tests @ 11.2%
+2176 in TEL from 55318 tests @ 3.9%
+4340 in ODI from 50570 tests @ 8.6%
+4591 in UP from 153458 tests @ 3.0% (67 deaths)
+1203 in BIH from 171046 tests @ 0.7%
+6324 in KER from 54989 tests @ 11.5% :damn:
+7855 in AP from 76000 tests @ 10.3% (52 deaths)
+1981 in RAJ from 29766 tests @ 6.7%
+1104 in J&K from 23397 tests @ 4.7%
+5692 in TN from 90607 tests @ 6.3% (66 deaths)
+1408 in GUJ from 61904 tests @ 2.3%
+684 in UK from 9766 tests @ 7.0%
+19164 in MAH from 83602 tests @ 22.9% (459 deaths)
+3834 in DEL from 59183 tests @ 6.5%
+1698 in HAR from 25198 tests @ 6.7%
+1756 in PUN from 28215 tests @ 6.2% (76 deaths)
+673 in Goa from 2111 tests @ 31.9% :damn:
+3196 in WB from 43432 tests @ 7.4% (62 deaths)
+2304 in MP from 19287 tests @ 12.0% :damn:
+1349 in JH from 41105 tests @ 3.3%
+7710 in KAR from 64164 tests @ 12.0% (65 deaths)
+2091 in ASM from 28993 tests @ 7.2%
+2272 in CHGfrom 15522 tests @ 14.6%

+85,919 is the final. And somehow it is another drop, despite Kerala :)


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Re: Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

Post by jayakris »

September 24th Summary: +85,919 to 5,816,103 at a daily growth rate of 1.499% (Doubling: 46.6 days)
Deaths: +1144 to 92,317... Still staying in a rather flat range for now... Overall death rate: 1.59%
Recoveries: +81,141 to 4,752,991... No drop in active cases. Overall recovery ratio: 81.7%
7-day average of new cases: Down for the 8th day... -1552 to +86,203

Bad Areas:
+6234 (4.2%) to 154458 in 14/14 dists; Thir(875)/Kol/Pat/Ala(501)/Kot/Ern(590)/Thr(474)/Pal/Mal(763)/Koz(883)/Kan, KER
+2798 (2.8%) to 101954 in 9/35 dists; Nagpur(1571)/Bhandara/Gondia(298)/Gadchiroli/Wardha/Washim/Amravati(340), MAH
+2144 (3.2%) to 68158 in 13/30 dists; Cutt.(567)/Puri(203)/Jag/Kendra/Ang/Kendhu/Balas/Samb/Deo/Jha/Bou/Sub/Kandh, ODI
+1753 (2.7%) to 67353 in 2/35 dists; Sangli(905/Satara(848), MAH
+1392 (2.6%) to 55457 in 7/37 dists; Coimbatore(644)/Nilgiris/Erode/Dharmapuri/Tiruppur(188)/Namakkal/Karur, TN
+747 (5.3%) to 14764 in 9/28 dists; Dhamtari/Garia./Balod/U.Bastar.K/Konda./Bastar/Da.Bastar.D(169)/Sukma/Bija., CHG
+682 (3.6%) to 19764 in 10/28 dists; Bilas.(244)/G.P.Mar./Mung./Kabeer/Bamet./Bal-Baz/Korba/Suraj./Surg./Balram., CHG
+673 (2.3%) to 30552 in 5/5 dists in the state of Goa
+597 (3.9%) to 16042 in 14/52 dists; Eastern half outside of Indore/Bhopal/Ujjain/Gwalior/Jabalpur, MP
+593 (2.7%) to 22552 in 2/30 dists; Hassan(407)/Chikkamagaluru(186), KAR
+546 (2.5%) to 22309 in 4/75 dists; Meerut(210)/Bijnor/Amroha/Moradabad(186) in the Northwest corner of UP
+533 (2.6%) to 20995 in 1/4 districts; Puducherry, PUD

Kerala with 6234 bad-area cases overtook even Maharashtra (4551) today. Worse still, the growth rate in the 14 districts of Kerala is about 3 times the national average too. Only the southern half of Chhattisgarh is worse in growth rate. It's not a pretty site in God's own country right now. Coimbatore again entered the list from TN, sadly, showing TN's troubles in dropping the numbers. It has to be from delays in RT-PCR test results at this point. When it is reactive testing (not too much from contact-tracing), I think you need to mix in AG tests for quicker results and to stop some family spreads. A certain rate of infection, however low it is, happens purely from the 1 or 2 extra days of delay in PCR test results. A lot of the TN numbers are just from that. But TN stubbornly refuses to do AG testing in larger numbers of volunteering people (and thus misses out on hot spots too for a couple of days). Kerala is simply not doing enough AG or PCR testing right now, on the other hand... Almost all the places with poorer testing are there above in the list, and none with good testing (except the Meerut area of UP)!

No other contiguous areas in the states had a growth rate more than 50% above our national average today (1.499*1.50 = 2.249%) and 500+ new cases... The bad areas together had +18,692 cases to take their total to 594,358 cases at a bad area growth rate of 3.24%... The rest of the country had +67,227 cases to take their total to 5,221,745 at a good area growth rate of 1.30%. Today's good areas are where 89.8% of our current cases are. It's pretty amazing how these total numbers are very close from from day to day, even when the bad areas and their numbers are quite different - like yesterday and today.


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Re: Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

Post by jayakris »

September 25 Updates:
+341 TPR, +293 HP, +255 ARP, +254 MNP, +244 CHD, +95 SKM,
+75 MEG, +56 LDK, +38 NAG, +27 MIZ, +15 ANI, +12 DNHDD


+594 in PUD from 5515 tests @ 10.8%
+2381 in TEL from 57621 tests @ 4.1%
+4208 in ODI from 52882 tests @ 8.0%
+4256 in UP from 164742 tests at 2.6% (84 deaths)
+1632 in BIH from 164769 tests @ 1.0%
+6477 in KER from 56057 tests @ 11.6% :damn:
+5679 in TN from 94877 tests @ 6.0% (72 deaths)
+7073 in AP from 69429 tests @ 10.2% (48 deaths)
+2010 in RAJ from 16680 tests @ 7.5%
+1218 in J&K from 25262 tests @ 4.8%
+1442 in GUJ from 61912 tests @ 2.3%
+3827 in DEL from 59134 tests @ 6.5%
+928 in UK from 8145 tests @ 11.4%
+1876 in PUN from 30929 tests @ 6.1% (68 deaths)
+17794 in MAH from 90399 tests @ 19.7% :dance: (416 deaths) :(
+519 in Goa from 1981 tests @ 26.2%
+3190 in WB from 43815 tests @ 7.3% (59 deaths)
+2024 in HAR from 20630 tests @ 10.2% :(
+8655 in KAR from 59919 tests @ 14.4% :damn: (86 deaths)
+1792 in ASM from 28245 tests @ 6.3% :)
+1271 in JH from 40405 tests @ 3.1% :)
+2227 in MP from 25603 @ 8.7%
+2942 in CHG from 17266 tests @ 17% :damn: :damn:

85,720 and that should be a final. Somehow, another small drop!


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Re: Covid-19 Daily Number Updates (June 12 onward)

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Sep 25 Summary: +85,720 to 5,901,826 at a daily growth rate of 1.474% (Doubling: 47.4 days)
Deaths: +1,093 to 93,410... Not our worst day, with a slight drop... Overall death rate: 1.58%
Recoveries: +93,325 to 4,846,327... Active: -7.6K to 961,255... Overall recovery ratio: 82.1%
7-day average of new cases: Down for the 9th day... -1046 to +85,167

Bad Areas:
+6477 (4.2%) to 160935 in 14/14 dists; Thir(814)/Kol(569)/Pat/Ala(551)/Kot/Ern(655)/Thr(607)/Pal/Mal(784)/Koz(690)/Kan, KER
+2341 (3.7%) to 66389 in 25/28 dists; Durg(396)/Bilas.(218)/Raigarh(213)/Rajnand.(167), etc; NOT Raipur(580), CHG
+1420 (3.0%) to 48990 in 8/30 dists; Cuttack(465)/Jagatsingh./Kendra./Jajpur(237)/Kenduj./Angul/Deogarh/Sambalpur, ODI
+1093 (2.5%) to 44488 in 4/37 dists; Coimbatore(669)/Nilgiris(137)/Tiruppur(178)/Namakkal(109), TN
+907 (2.3%) to 39984 in 4/35 dists; Latur(366)/Beed(206)/Jalna(163)/Buldhana(172), MAH
+787 (2.6%) to 30901 in 7/22 dists; Sonipat(186)/Bhiwani/Hisar(155)/Jind/Kaithal/Panchkula/Kurukshetra, HAR
+702 (2.22%) to 32275 in 1/35 dists; Mysuru, KAR
+645 (3.1%) to 21312 in 13/52 dists; Eastern half with Jabalpur(212); not Indore/Bhopal/Ujjain/Gwalior, MP
+585 (3.0%) to 20235 in 8/22 dists; Bathinda(159)/SriMuktsarSahib/Fazilka/Ferozepur/Moga/TarnTaran/Kapurthala, PUN
+524 (4.2%) to 12887 in 4/30 dists; Nuapada(175)/Kalahandi/Kandhamal/Nabarangpur, ODI
+510 (4.2%) to 12552 in 3/35 dists; Gondia(328)/Bhandara(108)/Gadchiroli(74), MAH

Kerala leads as usual with 6477 bad-area cases with Chhattisgarh (2341) behind. Maharashtras count drastically reduced to only 1417 cases, as all the big cities are now under 2.2 percent growth, with Nagpur (1509) also leaving the bad list. UP, BIhar, AP, Jharkhand, etc continue to stay out of the list.

No other contiguous areas in the states had a growth rate more than 50% above our national average today (1.474*1.50 = 2.211%) and 500+ new cases... The bad areas together had +15,991 cases to take their total to 490,948 cases at a bad area growth rate of 3.37%... The rest of the country had +69,729 cases to take their total to 5,410,878 at a good area growth rate of 1.31%. Today's good areas are where 91.7% of our current cases are.