Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

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Where will the number of Covid-19 postive cases in India peak?

200,000
0
No votes
300,000
0
No votes
400,000
2
13%
500,000
0
No votes
600,000
0
No votes
700,000
0
No votes
800,000
2
13%
900,000
0
No votes
1 million
0
No votes
> 1 million
11
73%
 
Total votes: 15

Sin Hombre
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by Sin Hombre »

arjun2761 wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:41 pmMost investment newsletters consider Indian data to be highly unreliable largely because the Indian health infrastructure is considered undeveloped. That is, there isn't much faith on both (1) whether all the infection pockets are being covered, and (2) Even if covered whether the data being reported is reliable.
I think these investment letters have very little clue tbh.

Indian data is as reliable as European and US data were 2 months back. We are not seeing body bags which would have been the case if there was significant underreporting.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by jayakris »

arjun2761 wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:41 pmAlso, agree that a significant part of India isn't exposed as you state. But even if 75% of India isn't exposed, the Indian tests per million of around 5000 is far below the 80000-100,000+ of the developed nations. That is, even if we consider our exposed population base to be 25%, our tests per million for the exposed population would be around 20000 which is a factor of 4 less than the developed countries.
Actually I didn't say that 75 percent are exposed. I only said (my guess) that perhaps 75% don't have anybody within 5 km radius with infection.

I don't have an easy index to use to figure out "what population" should be used as the divisor for the tests/million stat. I just don't know. Some indicator is needed on the extent of the spread of the disease, as it takes time to get to different places. Places like Bihar, Odisha, Goa, Tripura etc almost had NO cases at all till about 6 weeks ago. Just did not!! No doctor reported anything, no patient told any reporter, no rumors, nothing. So there was no point in using their population in the divisor.

It may only be a month or two for a small European country to have the disease get to every neighborhood (or to 95% of 10 sq km areas, or 95 percent of all 1000-people population groups) in the country, but it is taking much longer for the US or Russia or India.

I just know that India has vast stretches and so many cities with more than 500K population where there aren't even 250 cases. You won't find that anywhere else in the world right now (except in China, for whom nobody has reliable numbers). I mean, which country has a city like Coimbatore or Gwalior with over a million population that still has only 300 cases? And even those cases were all mostly Tablighi JamaAt people or migrant travelers who were traced, put in quarantine, and recovered long ago (and not any community transmission growth from seed index cases). The test positivity in those places are like less than 1 percent in the test they have done, so it is not due to lack of testing there. Maybe at some point Coimbatore will start a growth like Madurai did this week.

A couple of months or even a few weeks seems to have been enough for it to get to every place in other countries, but that has not been the case in India. This was also because of an extremely early lockdown and the total shutdown of intra-nation travel. So the spread has been basically in some limited areas of India. Even after that, it is only slowly getting to new towns and starting. So, again, the problem is that spreading of the disease takes time. Until then, adding every place's population makes no sense.

I can imagine the tests/million stat becoming meaningful, maybe, once the spread can be assumed "complete". Maybe one indication would be the cumulative tested cases' total showing an inflection point (ie, the second derivative becomes negative, or daily additions dropping). That may be an indication of the spread being "complete" and comparable to another part of the world. But if there is a second wave in the total, that indicates that the spread was not complete initially - and then you have to throw out the earlier inflection point and wait for the next. There could also be a third wave if it gets to some other part and starts growing... then you wait for a third inflection point! US, for instance now have to wait till we get the inflection point once CA, TX, FL calm down. The tests per million in the US is also an erroneous measure.

Right now, Mumbai maybe the only place where tests per million would make any sense, because only Mumbai has shown in inflection point. But it is possible that there areas of Mumbai that will grow later and we might need to wait for a second inflection point to be sure that those areas; population needed to be in the divisor.

Hope I make some sense in what I am saying.

But test positivity is a comparable measure across countries. It just says something about whether you are getting to the places where you need to test.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by Sin Hombre »

jayakris wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:18 am But test positivity is a comparable measure across countries. It just says something about whether you are getting to the places where you need to test.
Agree with your post Jay except this part.

Test positivity is a comparable measure across sub-national regions (or smaller countries), as is the 7-day moving average of daily new cases.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by prasen9 »

But the positivity rate is also related to how much you are testing. You can not test much except when they come to the hospitals as in Mexico City or Hyderabad. Then, that results in high rates. Which basically means that you are not into contact tracing and are not doing a good job. On the other hand, you can be having low positivity rate by doing some random testing in large scale. Or in areas which are not hotspots. That would keep the overall positivity down especially in large countries. Which is why Sin Hombre's suggestion to compare this over small areas makes more sense.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by suresh »

We crossed the 800,000 mark today and there is no sign of flattening. We should be crossing 1 million in another week.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by Omkara »

We are busy discussing "he who should not be named" way of handling China. And how UP police killed a goon.

We are going to cross 1.6 million in 20 days. Now there are three people I know who have tested positive.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by sameerph »

In this thread, I had predicted our peak to come a little after we cross 1 million cases somewhere in July. Crossing 1 million is indeed going to happen in July but looks it may take at least a month more to reach that peak, maybe even more, hard to predict now.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by Omkara »

We "Unlocked" without planning. My friend Kolkata went for a long drive. Came back in 5 hours. Travelled reasonable distance outside Kolkata. Their feedback, people are not following any norms. Not even the basic norm of a mask. A vegetable market 50 kms outside Kolkata did business like usual. How can we even decide what's the peak?
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by prasen9 »

We just don't have the public infrastructure in the rural areas. We do not have solid law enforcement. We do not have any good PR programs to educate the masses. At least in WB (going by what my parents said is going on).
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by arjun2761 »

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamain ... erm=072120

A US study from March to May 2020, indicates that people with C19 was actually many multiples (10X) of the tested number. Given that US test rates at that time were probably similar to India's current test rates, I still believe the actual numbers in India are also many multiples of the reported number given our relatively low testing rate. The question may be whether we will cross 10MM eventually even if only a fraction are tested and confirmed.

The good news is that the number requiring serious treatment is quite small -- perhaps a fraction of 1% for those under 50-60 and in good health. The fact that India's demographic is much younger than the west is also a factor that mitigates the impact of C19.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by suresh »

Here is something relevant to Arjun's comment about the true numbers of C19 cases.
The Indian Express wrote:The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Tuesday declared the results of a serological survey carried out in Delhi between June 27 and July 10, which showed that 22.86% of the people surveyed had developed IgG antibodies, indicating they had been exposed to the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19.

A total 21,387 samples were collected to look for the presence of antibodies. The study has found that a large number of infected persons remain asymptomatic.
Source: The Indian Express
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by suresh »

Results of other serological studies? (Supposedly numbers from hot spots)

Exclusive: Ahmedabad tops COVID prevalence with 49% in hot spots, Mumbai second with 36%
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by suresh »

We crossed the 1 million mark on 16th July, the 2 million mark on August 6 and the 3 million mark on August 22. (as per data on covid19india.org)
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by jayakris »

Okay.... So, it looks like the peak of the daily additions was on Sep 17th when we went +97,860 to 5,115,898.... Our 7-day weekly curve also hit the peak on that day and has been dropping since then.

I get the 11 smart-asses who changed their votes or whatever, and are in the "over a million cases" group will be declared the winners?

Do the winners get a free Antigen testing kit or something? I get nothing, I know. I always thought we would hit it somewhere within 2 million cases and under 50K or 60K daily additions, at least a month or two earlier. Not at 5.1 million total and +98K daily cases after 6 months, for sure. I thought we would ultimately reach 5 million total and all that, however... but my expectation was for it to happen on a slow dropping curve or on a second wave by October after the monsoons.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by suresh »

I have a new question.
Will we have a second peak in the daily number of cases? If yes, when will it appear? Will this peak be greater than the first peak?
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